What are the political consequences of deprivation Belarus preferences?

From June 21 to enter into force the EU’s decision to deprive Belarus of trade preferences. Is this a high quality turn in relations between Minsk and Brussels?
How to evaluate the actions of the Belarusian authorities to prevent this decision? How can further develop affairs of Belarus with the European Union?
Is the removal of trade preferences in foreign relations between Minsk and Brussels?
Valery Karbalevich: "Although EU officials emphasize that deprivation of Belarus trade preferences can not be considered sanctions, most experts consider this diplomatic game in time.
This is a decision of the European Union is the punishment for the violation of trade union rights by the Belarusian authorities.
We can assume that the first time the West ran from tampering attempts Belarus by means of resolutions to economic pressure to achieve improve the human rights situation in the country.
Earlier, the U.S. administration is perceived certain decisions in this regard under the "Act on democracy in Belarus." But those restrictions in economic relations treated faster possible abilities than real impact. Besides economic relations between Belarus and the United States are insignificant.
EU twice postponing this decision, the official Minsk gave a chance to rectify the situation in the trade union field, but in the end all the same deprived Belarus trade preferences. Refers to the loss of 400 million dollars a year. Is this some high-quality turn in relations between Belarus and the West? "
Peter Sadowski: "I would not say that this was the kind of fundamentally new step in the relationship. European Union, where it is still preside until Germany holds the concept of democratization through cooperation. Because Europe tends not to make any sudden moves.
If the management of Belarus to change its policy in relation to trade unions, the preferences can be returned promptly.
Belarus overall financial situation is more complicated. Our products are intended for export, more expensive. Because a lot of them go to the warehouse. Prices have risen energoelementy.
Alarm from Moscow. Our homeland is going to enter the export duty on crude oil to be processed.
Not justified calculations to get 1 billion dollars loan in the Austrian "Rayfayzenbanku." No billion and Chinese, many of whom had read. Plus the abolition of these preferences. Such complex situation not previously. The authorities should do something, To get out of it. "
Denis Melyantsou: "I would not have agreed to evaluate this step as the EU sanctions. After inclusion of Belarus in the General System of Trade Preferences happened like in advance.
And our country could remain there only on the condition that she would have done the exact steps towards liberalization and democratization. As Belarus did not, then the abolition of preferences can not be called sanctions.
But the fact that the European Union defected from declarations to economic pressures — is a fundamental step in relations with Belarus. This is a warning that steps in this direction can last. "
Could the Belarusian authorities to prevent the removal of trade preferences?
Karbalevich: "It must be stressed that the Belarusian authorities were concerned about the dangers of the European Union and made a number of steps to prevent the removal of trade preferences.
On the one hand, were prepared steps which can be regarded as a definite political liberalization: the release of political prisoners 3, termination of a number of criminal cases against the youth activists and others.
On the other hand, awkward steps Federation of Trade Unions — they could provoke the introduction of these sanctions. How to evaluate the actions of the Belarusian authorities? "
Sadowski: "Yes, any act of the authorities, for example, Malady Myagenkaya sentence can be seen as weakening. But there are many journalists increased greatly. Significant configurations Since I have not seen. We want to build our government is smarter than he in fact is.
I see that the deprivation our country trade preferences and the cancellation of most social benefits in Belarus itself tied into a ball. And the amount of losses from the abolition of preferences and savings from the abolition of benefits commensurate. "
Melyantsou: "In 1-x, where I slightly disagree with the sovereign Sadowski. Belarusian authorities responded to the EU requirements, but somehow in the wrong direction. They started to do, so to speak, manetyzatsyyu repression. This is where political opponents are not planted jail and fined huge amounts.
Exemption Statkevich Sevyarinets — it was also an attempt to prevent the abolition of preferences or divert their entry into force.
But the fact, that the European Union threatened cancellation of preferences due to violations of freedom of association. And it is not very clear why the response to this demand Minsk makes completely different steps — for example, releases of political prisoners.
In-2, according to the Belarusian Institute for Strategic research, Belarus loss from the abolition of these preferences would be only about 67 million dollars a year. This little, for the sake of such sums to take constructive measures for economic or political liberalization.
B-3, to meet the requirements that are exposed International Labour Organization in 2005, and later the European Union, from Minsk required little effort and political will.
A required only to simplify the registration procedure of Free Trade Unions, the country’s complete intervention in trade union affairs and to inform the public about these requirements.
But the government went to such concessions. Indicating an unfavorable trend for democracy in Belarus. "
What are the prospects for the development of relations between Belarus and the European Union?
Karbalevich: "Indeed, these preferences may be returned promptly if the Belarusian authorities to change their attitude towards trade union rights. Now Minsk delegation visits the International Labour Organization for the negotiations with the authorities about the law that regulates the activities of trade unions. In other words, the dialogue continues.
How can develop further action? Or litsezrev decisive acts of the European Union, Minsk will learn what happened to him is no longer a joke and concessions in the implementation of trade union rights?
Or vice versa — will learn that the EU can not appease promises no more sense to play liberalization can tighten the screws? "
Sadowski: "I think that sharp movements in that or other side will not. Will policy balancing malehankih concessions tightening negotiations, searches and other allies."
Karbalevich "Mr. Melyantsou, you said that the Belarusian authorities to respond to the demands of the EU in the wrong direction. And to meet these requirements was not hard.
But in politics, everything is interconnected. And on the other hand, go for the liberalization of trade unions in relation to the rise in the criteria of socio-economic problems — a big political risk for the current regime. "
Melyantsou: "Yes, in politics everything is interconnected. But the EU requirements were very specific, and they should be doing. Present regime is not inclined to liberalize.
Because policy excitement will last. And steps will be taken towards the liberalization of trade union activities, and toward limiting the rights of Free Trade Unions.
Belarusian authorities consider concessions manifestation of helplessness. Besides, I think the government has already resigned to the abolition of preferences. Especially since small amount here. There are more important challenges — for example, the price of energy. "
Karbalevich: "So Makar, the creation of an undemocratic political regime, a human rights violation for the first
time results in some economic loss for the country and the population.
On the other hand, deprivation of EU trade preferences means that samples of the official Minsk unfreeze business with Europe against the background of the conflict with Russia fails. All together it makes the new challenges for the country and the current political regime. "

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