Andrzej Shchensnyak: Target gas games — the union between Belarus and Russia

Reporter: "My first question to a professional: what, in his opinion, the real reason for the last of the gas conflict between Raseyayi and Belarus?"
Shchensnyak: "In my opinion, gas game in which Our homeland has a very strong card — energoelementy and Belarus — no, it’s part of a majestic plan whose ultimate goal — the union of Belarus and Russia. This is just another step towards that goal .
Moscow is a great play this game because at the moment there is no argument Lukashenko. "Gazprom" says he just did not pay it. At the end of last year Lukashenka, one might say, temporarily won by shifting price increases, but the time inevitably comes to paying bills. Another huge problem to begin in 2008, when must be pay, I think, about 80 bucks for a thousand cubic meters. Our homeland is aware that the financial difficulties of Belarus will only increase and seemingly lays pressure on the part of its own, so no later Lukashenko could say — see, in the middle of winter we suddenly turned off the gas! Financial noose around Belarus will be delayed, and exotic projects such as help from Venezuela — are ineffective. "
Reporter: "Can Lukashenko still win something in this dispute?"
Shchensnyak: "I think that a return to papryaednyaga gas price is unrealistic. Unofficially Russian they say — want to have cheaper gas, unite us, because the internal Russian prices hitherto very low. Lukashenko, we must admit, it’s a tough player, but he no nominations. European Union, Poland, I believe, are wrong policy because this case not willing to give a chance to play together Minsk against Russia.
Lukashenko remains to fight for their position and with Russia and within the country. For if in Belarus was market economy, as prices would rise and all, but there are things perceived as a blow to the style of the president. And this is a sick situation. So that the Belarusian leader has no outlet, and I think lean towards Russia, and this is the error, and Poland and the European Union, which did not give him any chances to get in some alliance with us. "
Reporter: "Either the harm these" gas dispute "with the Russian style of Belarus as a transit country and what are the consequences might be?"
Shchensnyak: "In today’s atmosphere of fear and tension, any information about the failure of supplies reminds Europeans that it is better to have a more reliable way. Such more reliable, the other way for Europe not to have relations with such incomprehensible partners as Lukashenko. This Northern gas pipeline the Baltic Sea.
Naturally, it is more expensive project, but for Germany or France, he looks cute in such a situation. The Northern Pipeline and weakens the role of Poland and Belarus as transit countries. Role these states on transit routes energoelementov from Russia to the West decreases, and the time in general becomes zero and it is very bad. Then there will be no ability to pressure in discussions with Russia. "

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