Where to find money for gas: foreign loans, the National Bank, new taxes, confiscatory measures?

Tsigankov: "According to the agreement signed in Moscow on 31 December 206, the gas price for Belarus is 100 bucks for a thousand cubic meters. But six months of Belarus had an adjustment period and paid only 55 percent of that cost. And on July 1, Belarus should pay 100 bucks. What consequences this may have for the Belarusian economy? Why Economy Minister Nikolai Zaichenko said at a press conference on June 30 that it "does not affect the situation in the economy"?
"Capacity chaos promises"
Romanchuk: "The Emperor Zaychenko just makes a good face on a bad game. Belarusian Prime Minister Sergei Sidorsky, who not so long ago was in Moscow, has already started asking where the loan is not billions of dollars, as before, but two billion if the economy is wasting billions of dollars, certainly, it will affect the budget and balance of payments. "
Tsigankov "But Zaichenko said that it would not affect as Belarusian economic entities are already paying the full price of gas …"
Romanchuk: "It’s not that businesses pay for gas at one hundred percent (households, by the way, for gas not yet paying full price), but the fact that Belarus does not pay of, and these funds turn in Belarus. If we done these debts for 500 million dollars for 6 months (the same number will be typed before the end of the year) — so Makar, negative balance of payments may reach 7-8 percent of GDP.
And this is bringing us closer to the shock, which will have to adapt. Maybe he will be on such as in Russia in 1998 — but if we do nothing, we will come to such scale. "
Zaleski: "You can explain the position of power such makarom. Belarusian government never getting any money for gas. We always companies and citizens are paying more for gas than it cost" inlet "on the border with Russia. Maybe that’s why Zaychenko inertia and said that "we do not have these tools, and will not be."
But I agree completely with Romanchuk, no matter how many businesses did not pay, the government still pays another state of, for gas. And if the value is increased by one second, these tools need to get somewhere. Where? Can I pay with money that should come after "Beltransgaz", we can expect Russian loan. But it is not all economic output, a manipulation abilities, and I’d said, "scale chaos promises."
"The Russians will give credit to unprofitable criteria"
Tsigankov "Russian Ambassador to Belarus at a press conference on June 13 said that zavinavachanasts Belarus for gas to be repaid by the end of the year, and should set up regular payments. Will Belarus in the second half to pay 100 percent for gas and receive a Russian loan? "
Romanchuk: "I think the government will try every effort to get this loan, because without it he does not know how to behave. Treasury now faced with the problem of domestic debt, because nobody wants to take money bonds ministry. Makarom Thus, internal resources are very limited.
I think Our homeland will give us a loan, but will on such criteria, they will be very unprofitable Belarus in the medium term. "
Tsigankov: "If the government has a severe cash prepyadstviya have several options: taking foreign loans, home loans to expand or reduce waste, less build palaces and other long-term projects. That elect Belarusian management? "
Romanchuk: "We litsezreem that cut social programs from — politically unpopular thing, it increases the danger of social unrest. I think the government to step up pressure on banks to increment financing. This the story of the first half of the year, when banks were lured into the economy billions of dollars of loans to . They will try to reduce the interest rate of the State Bank, National Bank so that became a source of financing for the real sector. "
Tsigankov "But" credit history "Belarus is rather Cancel compared with other Eastern European countries, and it seems you can still borrow a lot."
Zaleski: "As my grandmother read about dog," would eat Well, who would give him. " Debt in Belarus is small, but if you take new loans, they need to return later. To return them, it is necessary that you were convinced. For investors more critical problem is the succession of power in Belarus, the stability of the country. People expect that the funds will work 10-20 years. And that there will be in 10 years? They do not know. "
"You can release the bond issue" For rich Belarus ", without any goals to return the funds"
Tsigankov: "So which way compensate for the loss of the increase in gas prices more realistic for the current Belarusian government?"
Zaleski: "Dining is. 1st — dial loans within the country, in factories or in humans. I still remember how it mattersl Stalin — bonds municipal loan for which the parents took away a third of earnings. So which can be release the bond issue "For rich Belarus", without any goals to return the funds. But people do not rush.
2nd option — housing programm. We purchased two years ago about 80 thousand apartments in the past year — 70 thousand. This is a great means for which can be carry out certain manipulations with credits and lure funds from the public. But it’s not as frisky means as we would like.
And, in the end, you can go to the Roman method "praskryptsyyav" and select resources from those who have them. "
Tsigankov: "It has been stated that they will deal with transport vehicles. This can give the budget of about 200 million dollars. "
Zaleski: "Absolutely! Pressure on all sectors of business, free economic activity of the person, for which he can pay. But this path to inflation. Indeed, if we presses the producer services or products, they increase prices."
Authority may impose a tax on an apartment?
Romanchuk: "The draft budget is a thing that can improve the situation with the budget. Ministry of money planned to introduce a tax on the apartment people. And if the rate is 1 percent, and will be introduced cadastral price of a dwelling, then for example, Minsk apartment of 60 square meters worth 120 thousand dollars. Then tax will be 1200 bucks. This may be a source of additional income.
So Makar, foreign lending is the first source of fundraising, inflation National Bank loans — second, new taxes — 3rd and certain confiscatory measures — the last. "

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