Why the government is not willing to pay for gas?

Zheliba "Today Belarus has prepyadstviya currency"
Valery Karbalevich: "For a few days go tense negotiations between the delegations of the Belarusian government and" Gazprom "to defer payment for gas.
According to the January agreement between the governments of Belarus in the first half only paid 55 bucks for one a thousand cubic meters of gas instead of $ 100. Lumped owed about 500 million dollars, which the Belarusian side was pay until July 23. But the date has passed, the debt is not paid.
Minsk asks another postponement or debt restructuring.
It seems impossible to say that there is nothing to pay. Belarus has a budget surplus. Most recently the Belarusian budget was 625 million dollars from "Gazprom" for 12.5% of the shares of "Beltransgaz". But these funds the government is not willing to waste Belarus and asks RF for credit. But Moscow with a loan in a hurry.
What are the prerequisites such management positions in Belarus? Why is it once again seeks to change the rules during the game? "
Boris Zheliba: "Negotiations are held behind closed doors, no we do not have disk imaging. But you can imagine now Belarus has difficulty with currency. Lack of trade balance grows. For six months he had reached the 1.5 billion dollars. A record amount.
After the New Year, when the changed terms of trade with Russia, has declined significantly exports of oil and petroleum products. Russian government said that once again increases the oil tax. As a result, our oil refineries that now and so work with virtually zero margin, would be even more expensive. That will put enormous prepyadstviya for foreign currency inflows into the country.
There are other prerequisites. For example, the aggregate debt of Belarus (corporate and municipal debt) grows bolshennymi pace since the beginning of the year. At the moment, she also achieved a record number of well — almost 8 billion dollars.
With regard to the budget surplus, it in some sense artificial. Namely, it is created by means of the price of the Social Security Fund.
Because monetary tension on the background there is a threat devaluation of the Belarusian ruble. If that happens, it will affect the income of the population. Because the government will go to great sacrifices to avoid devaluation. All this explains the position of Belarus in the negotiations with "Gazprom".
Karbalevich: "Maybe the government seeks to delay payment of the debt until the end of the year, and there will be Russian loan, and can be somehow get out of the situation. "
Romanchuk: "July 23 will go down in history as the first day of technical default"
Yaroslav Romanchuk: "First of all I congratulate the Belarusians with a sad event. July 23 will go down in history as the first day of technical default. After Belarus Fails own cash obligations under the contract. And it’s a shame.
Segodnyaschy position of the Belarusian government explained by 3 reasons. In 1-x, his incompetence. Has long been understood that for gas will have to pay 100 bucks for a thousand cubic meters 1 and predict it in the budget. And so it turns out that companies with government takes $ 100, there is a budget surplus by 850 million dollars, and the debt to "Gazprom" Tipo pay nothing.
In-2-x, y control of the country there is no political will to change economic policy.
B-3, Lukashenko need another scandal with Russia to clarify the population why it should pay a highest utility bills, and why businesses were even more languid state.
Time works in Russia. It can delay the negotiations to delay spending credit. General technical credit to testify against the thesis of sustainability and stability of the Belarusian model ".
Karbalevich: "The thesis of the first technical default — it is, for sure, very much. Not the first time Belarus delays payment for gas. In the 90s of the last century it was a common situation. Then" Gazprom "not once made a scandal, immediately sought to eliminate debt, threatened to cut off supplies of gas. "
Romanchuk: "segodnyaschy situation differs fundamentally. After both sides had determined the date to which Belarus had to eliminate debt. This has not happened. According to international rules it is the default."
Karbalevich: "Maybe it’s blackmail Russian official Minsk, then you do not give credit, we will not pay the debt. But usually the side that gives credit and dictates the terms. A postponement of payments for gas — is, in fact, a loan. And here comes all the contrary, tries to dictate conditions towards getting a loan. "
Romanchuk: "If Lukashenko says about sovereignty, it involves the development of criteria in global prices."
Zheliba: "Our homeland will claim to pay for gas companies"
Zheliba: "The government late last year had to figure out all the configuration options prices energoelementy. I have the impression that they did not. Budget was prepared taking into account the price of old gas and oil. And even now it is not changed. I’m afraid , Our homeland that, using this situation, will claim to pay for gas companies. "
Karbalevich: "Indeed, the representatives of" Gazprom "have hinted that they are willing to make concessions in the cost of gas, and the timing of payment, if Belarus offers highly profitable conditions for the privatization of Belarusian companies.
Secretary of the Union of the country Borodin said that he disk imaging Minsk is ready to offer for sale of petrochemical enterprises. Maybe just in this issue and there is a trade? "
Romanchuk: "I do not believe that the management of Belarus snuggled on all sides and go for privatization. Until such time as the budget deficit reached 5% of GDP, will not stop the enterprise, privatization will not.
I see it in the actions of the country’s management confusion and lack of planning. There is only strategy plugging the holes. Problem in the country made in the economic system.
In the first half of the year, banks have received more than one billion dollars of foreign loans. But a year later such generosity from foreign lenders will not.
Russian banks will give loans to possess Belarusian assets. Lukashenko, delaying reforms, grist to the mill of Russian oligarchs. "
Zheliba: "The Belarusian side saspyavae need to sell its flagship industry of the Russian Federation. Since our export prospects are bad, there prepyadstviya currency to pay for gas, the ability to trade with Russia on the issue of the role of its companies in our small privatization".
Karbalevich "So makarom, zeal of the Belarusian side to postpone the payment of debt evidenced by the economic difficulties facing the country in which. It’s a shame Belarusian officials hardly explain their actions.
It is possible that some sort of deal is preparing behind society, privatization can take place without a broad public discussion. "

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