Nuclear zugzwang Alexander Lukashenko

Say everything without saying anything
Indeed whether Moscow intends to deploy its missiles on the territory of Belarus agree on whether it is Minsk, which may be international implications such steps — versions and guesses no end. Oil poured into the fire and also clarification of the kontartlumachenni ambassador and the Russian Embassy in Minsk, which completely confused and without sense Merkle interview sovereign Surikov.
So as not to be another accused of distorting the words pochetaemogo diplomat quote one hundred percent the question of "Interfax" and answer the ambassador.
Interfax: "Our homeland Will be placed on areas of Belarus new military facilities (in connection with the installation of a U.S. air defense in Europe?)"
Surikov: "It depends on the level of our political integration, as from the points of view of professionals, diplomats, military: it is necessary, it is possible, when and how. I mean facilities related to nuclear weapons."
What-you nibudt realized? So nobody realized. If spoken to realize practically, the diplomat saw only that if Our homeland has desired to position nuclear weapons in Belarus, the was necessary be fully discussed in including and with the Belarusian side. This worldview is true, but completely empty, and not surprisingly, that it began to be interpreted this way and that.
Meanwhile It seems that exactly this was payment, and the response has been purposely formulated ambassador is very unclear.
If Our homeland is really intended to move its missiles in Belarus, the ambassador would interview unprecedented violation of the technology of interstate relations. Such sur» severe problem, and nuclear weapon — is not the most serious problem» Sur in the world, initially solved at the highest level in a confidential manner, and later announced agreement urbi et orbi these most senior officials. To articulate any such intentions consent mouth minor bureaucrat — casts a huge swing their implementation. But everything falls into place, if it is purely an information attack, unhappy about PR. With all of this become apparent two objectives of this attack.
First target of attack
1st — Europe. In Ancient World attitude to the U.S. missile initiatives are multi-valued, and it is multi-valued in Poland and the Czech Republic, where the radar and missiles meant to arrange.
Europe is already very alarmed threat Vladimir Putin to restore Russian missiles on European capitals. Statement by Ambassador Surikov — another blow in the same direction.
But psychic war has laws. Frontal pressure, can cause grave danger reverse reaction — not many in Europe are ready to manifest the principle parazhentsav times "cool war": "Better to be reddish than dead."
Specifically to prevent this reverse reaction, statement by Ambassador was formulated so incomprehensible. And who read about placing nuclear weapons? Yes, no, this is interpreted as the media. Salting nothing such in mind had not threatened anyone not just for some reason I remembered him this kind of weapons. But still remembered, so think pochetaemye European partners.
Second target of attack
Second goal of the operation in the spirit of psychic war — the Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko. In chess, there is the concept of "zugzwang" — a position in which at least some progress exacerbates position. It would be better to miss a move in chess but this is unrealistic. As in politics. That is such a political zugzwang Moscow and tried to drive his own statement ally ambassador.
If Lukashenko says "yes", then clearly demonstrate their vassalage, show that the instructions he gives not even Putin and his bureaucrats. Besides, no matter what, even the theoretical possibility of any kind was to establish relations with the West and Europe will just disappear. Nuclear weapon — it is much more severe» serious than violations Human Rights and even the energy problem. And for all that Moscow has the freedom of maneuver — she had nothing per se did not have in mind, and as explained by salting sovereign, did not even offer. A consent Lukashenko, who closed his hands for all the other options of foreign policy, remains a useful asset.
If Lukashenko refuses — it is also desired outcome for the Kremlin. The Belarusian leader has certain Respect and in the midst of the Russian population, and especially among Russian servicemen. Negative response he just and kill much of this respect. How to swing your arms and make the harsh anti-American statements — that was brave, as indeed offered to come to the aid of an ally-brother — and then into the bushes. So either way will talk about a lot of Russians in uniform, and without them. It is not in the interests of Belarus? A corresponds to the interests of Russia gas Belarus 100 dollars per 1,000 cubic meters?
So makarom preparing the ideological and propaganda platform for another gas, oil (on everywhere) coming. Such sayuznichka what sorry?
Ideal would be to somehow miss the move, to remain silent, that it was neither positive nor negative answer. But the rules do not allow. Zugzwang, as was said.
U.S. comments on the statement of the Russian Ambassador in Belarus, 29.08.2007
Whether, even on a theoretical level, placement of nuclear weapons in Belarus?, 29.08.2007
Salting Surikov denies himself, 28.08.2007

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