Prague accent: what stuffed faces Polish deputy?

Different effects similar gas "war"
Drakakhrust: "On Wednesday, the Belarusian authorities were not allowed to enter the country three known Polish politicians: Vice spikeru Senate Krzysztof Putra chairman of the opposition party" plainclothes platform "Donald Tusk and led a group of solidarity with Belarus in the Diet Robert Tyszkiewicz At the border they were told that they "threaten the constitutional system of Belarus."
There is a simple explanation — these three policy hit the "blacklist" for his earlier speech on the situation in Belarus and in defense of the Polish minority, and if you try to cross the border, the list of automatic "Enable." But this explanation looks missing.
Completed another week reversed the Belarusian-Russian gas conflict. After the past, winter conflict Alexander Lukashenko gave to realize that wish to normalize relations with Europe. Now immediately after the conflict with Russia in the face of Europe’s own Polish representatives received a slap. Why? Vital Silitski, a question for you? "
Silitski: "I think that there is essentially no special connotation, and simply load" blacklist. "Need to do some reveransy EU in the address, and the address namely Poland, temporarily disappeared, and power returned to normal, routine behavior. And before some of these gentlemen had difficulties with a stop in Belarus, so that there would be a sensation, if they were allowed to check in Belarus, and not what they are not permitted. "
Drakakhrust: "Wojciech Boroditš-Smolinsky, I go back to the context of which I read. List, maybe it is, but everything is decided by the people. And if after that round of the Belarusian-Russian war was decided to make some gestures in towards Europe, it would be about the lists and did not remember. Why remember? Why is this European context did not work? "
Boroditš-Smalinki: "It seems to me that in this situation no euro context was not. This border crossing did not want the same MEPs whether bureaucrats of the European Commission, it was the Polish parliament.
What is unusual in this situation is the fact that the Emperor was Tyshkevich in Belarus March 25 this year demonstrations, and no problems with the crossing of the border it was not there. Now, this problem appeared.
Amazing read, but the KGB argument that this is just the beginning of the election campaign in Poland, and they were unwilling to admit the campaign on the ground in Belarus — this argument is not entirely unfounded.
If we have a look on the Polish political scene, we see that the emperor Tusk forgot about Belarus almost a year. The last time he wanted to come to Belarus — it was a year earlier when he was a candidate for president of Poland. Who started the election campaign newcomer, and Tusk decided to start it in Grodno in the Union of Poles in Belarus.
You can obviously assume that indeed there is a "black list" and that Belarusians might miss the Poles, so they could be at these events related to the celebration days of the Polish Army. But, in my opinion, it was just the Polish campaign in which Belarusians do not want to participate. This, perhaps even great, but if they missed Tusk Putre and Tyshkevicha, then nobody would not read. And we have not met in the studio and did not speak this topic. It seems that here the KGB just pressed the wrong button, which it was necessary to push. "

V.Barodich-Smolinski: "KGB just pressed the wrong button, which it was necessary to push."

Drakakhrust: "In other words, St. Adalbert, the Belarusian KGB weird protects transparency Polish elections.» Bow Fedor Ivanov, For you the same question: why such different was the reaction of Minsk on Europe after today and the previous conflict with Moscow ? "
Lukyanov: "In 1-x, it seems to me that Poland Belarus — is a special country. And if sovereign Lukashenko wished or wishes as before turn to send signals to Europe and back, it sends signals are not in Warsaw, Warsaw considered as , certainly, aggressive force, which is an inventory of the regime change in Belarus. Lukashenko position here is similar to the position of Russian control, which implies a Europe not part of the central and western.

F.Luk ‘Ivanov: "Lukashenko position similar to the position of Russian control, which implies a Europe not part of the central and western."

In-2, the difference in behavior is related to the fact that in winter, in January and February, when Lukashenko made accurate sample reorient, or at least make their policies more diverse and more understandable signals sent by the European Union over the fact that we Currently we can be friends together against the Russian, the European reaction to it completely did not suit. After all, in the imagination of the Belarusian president is supposed to be purely geopolitical composition when Belarus quarreled with his former patron geapalitychnym, offers its services to the newcomer, but with all this, according to Lukashenko, and language can not be that it is for that- then within the country will have to change.
He thinks in terms of the traditional "realpolitik" XIX century. But it turned out that it is unrealistic that cynically play geopolitics of the EU can not, on its own essence, as much ideological organization, built on certain principles. And any gestures in the address of the West must be accompanied by certain steps within the country that Lukashenko is unacceptable.
After that, it became clear that to play this card will not work. Because now it is not kidding. And the reaction to the conflict in Western Europe Russia and Belarus was much more restrained. In addition, having signed a contract that the Belarusian side does not, hard enough to insist on their own right. "
Survives in Minsk hope Europe?
Drakakhrust: "Wojciech, in your eyes as presently Minsk sees his affairs with Europe? Either he was quite lost hope for such a geopolitical alliance in the style of the XIX century, which read Fedor? Or still make the port specifically with Poland on" an old Europe "Minsk has not completely lost hope?"
Boroditš-Smalinki: "I think that the situation is two-sided. During 1-x, the position of Poland in Minsk is very weak but the rest and as a year in Minsk asked the Polish Ambassador. Our embassy is not working because it should, there is a charge d» affairs, who is willing to work, but it is not salted, it is not representative of the Polish president. This means that between Poland and Belarus do not have full diplomatic relations. This, in turn, means that Poland’s position in the Belarus is not as powerful as in other European countries.
In-2, I do not quite agree with the thesis that Lukashenko wants to quarrel with Poland, and Berlin and Paris — it’s great for him capital. Always the case with Belarus Brussels will be in Poland, it is — geopolitics, no other way. We are closer to the Belarusians and better knowing that, so to speak, have them on the shower. It allows us to play the role of» sub object that will connect Europe with Belarus.

V.Barodich-Smolinski: "Always affairs of Belarus with Brussels will be in Poland, it is — geopolitics, no other way."

This is fine, but it means a great responsibility and the Polish side. This means that we can not use our bilateral affairs in our country’s political struggle as did Gentlemen Putra Tusk.
It seems to me that the Emperor Lukashenko realized that Europe has decided and he says ordinary thing — we have 12 criteria, and need them to do. If not all, then at least part, to show that Belarus wants to change. If it is not, then all the work with Belarus will, unfortunately, be resolved through Russia, through the works of the Russian Federation and Europe. "
Drakakhrust: "Vitaly, you think just Minsk hopefully do business with Europe on its own criteria, and how, in your opinion, Minsk divides Wojciech worldview that Poland Belarus — it is not only geographical, and political gateway to Europe ? "
Silitski: "I wish to go back to the beginning of our discussion. All the same, let’s not exaggerate the effects of the Belarus-Russia gas" war ", which was accomplished first of August. Was no war, and no severe geopolitical subtext find there should not have been an attempt to draw elementary loan from Russia, pretending to be poor. Because the situation with the expulsion of Polish deputies seems quite apparent.
Now about these unusual European compositions. Here it should be understood that the relations between Belarus and the EU is quite structured at the level where they are. There are certain specific channels of communication, namely, the "troika" and the power of the Belarusian play on contradictions between "an old" and "modern" Evrapay rather limited.
Cancel European policy towards Belarus or not, but it does exist, it is fixed in certain documents, and then room to maneuver the Belarusian authorities simply do not have.

V.Silitsky: "Poland will resume the role of a mediator in the Belarusian-European affairs only when it returns to a more or less severe status in the European Union."

What did the question of the relationship between Polish and Western approaches to Belarus, I suppose. that Poland will resume the role of a mediator in the Belarusian-European affairs only when it returns to itself acceptable severe status in the European Union. In almost all areas related to the official Union of Warsaw far not the best, because for a couple years, this perspective is not very positive — that Poland incremented own weight in the EU and therefore could claim the role of mediator in relations with Belarus. Right "old" Europeans are not in a proper relation to Warsaw — is another matter, but the fact remains.
In addition, the holy place is never empty, and claims to be the mediator and Lithuania, as it seems to me, often it bypasses in Poland. "
Drakakhrust: "Theodore, do you agree with the views of St. Adalbert, that if Belarus does not accept the conditions of the EU, then the candidate will be to Brussels — to solve the Belarusian issue with Moscow?"

F.Luk ‘Ivanov: "Proximity prevents build close to the reality of politics, because for these looming outright missionary aspirations, which can cause quite the feelings, which expects a missionary country."

Lukyanov: "No, I think that this is not the candidature, as we agree with Moscow over Belarus will not work in the 1-x, because Moscow is no subject for negotiation does not see. And in-2, and most importantly, Belarus, like we may feel about President Lukashenko, fully independent political player who has enough time to the nearest successfully maneuver in that narrow space, which he has. And the notion that Moscow could agree on something with someone something and then perform Minsk — I think this is an exaggeration.
Yet there is one point on which Wojciech read, to which I should like to draw attention. When I hear discussions about Poland or other countries in Central and Eastern Europe, has recently joined the European Union, perfectly understand the psychology of Belarusians, Russians, Ukrainians, Moldovans, and therefore naturally should be the mediator, the bridges, the managers of European policy these States, it seems to me that this is not so. In fact, exactly the opposite.
Just this proximity, based on the complex relationship davneshnih, prevents build close to real politics, because for these looming outright missionary aspirations, which, in my opinion, in the countries to which they are oriented, can cause quite the feelings which expects missionary country. Surprisingly, in the current situation can reach more countries that do not have such tight contacts in the past with Belarus, Russia and Ukraine, countries that are able to look at the difficulties slightly from the side. This is the case when we know very well each other, it prevents close to the reality of politics. "
Boroditš-Smolinsky: "When I read that if Lukashenka will not make 12 the criterion of the EU, Europe has no other choice but to read about Belarus with Russia, I mean completely certain things.

V.Barodich-Smolinski: "It seems to me that Europe and the European Union is not quite ready for a change in Belarus."

It seems to me that Europe and the European Union is not quite ready for a change in Belarus. It may sound unpleasant, but I think so. Our homeland every year in various ways subsidizes Belarus for 5 billion dollars. And that could give Europe? EU states on different funds, which in general can give at least 20 million euros per year. This nesuvymyaralnyya number.
Second point, which also sounds cynical, but the main thing that is willing to provide the European Union — is a constant supply of oil and gas. And about their unrealistic to negotiate with Belarus, because oil and gas pipelines — it is the property of, at least, Our homeland has it even greater impact than Belarus. "
Putin gesture or Kaczynski?
Drakakhrust: "To what extent is the incident at the border could become a kind of" gesture of good will "in the address Minsk Moscow, whose affairs with Warsaw not too bright? Especially since the Polish politicians went on a day or a casual celebration of victory in the war against Poland Russian Russian. Such background of the conflict Moscow surely enjoy. Fedor, do you think? "
Lukyanov: "Moscow is sure to enjoy, as well as any restrictive measures against the Polish representatives in Belarus or anywhere else in the former Soviet Union.’s No secret that the Russian elite Poland takes very nervous, seeing it as the vanguard of western influence.
But it seems to me that the conscious desire to make a gesture to the address of Moscow was not. It’s faster dictated vnutribelorusskoy logic than the logic of relations with Russia. In These days are Moscow not many who drew attention to this incident, but all discussions are 3 a day or a decision to decouple from Belarus Ruble Russian and bind it only to buck.
This Russian commentators behold the next step away from Belarus are hypothetical monetary union and practically implemented ideas from a single economic space. Always it was believed that Ukraine — the main obstacle, but here it turns out that this is not Belarus is very keen.

F.Luk ‘Ivanov: "Even if the situation in Minsk with Polish politicians had in mind a friendly gesture to the address in Moscow, then there is no one saw."

So, even if the situation in Minsk with Polish politicians had in mind a friendly gesture to the address in Moscow, here nobody saw. "
Drakakhrust: "Wojciech, I wish to continue the theme that you developed in the beginning, when states that the Belarusian authorities and officialdom have not quite right when he called the visit of Polish politicians, who was thwarted election show. And in fact — in which power position of the Belarusian polonium can be a factor in the next elections? And do not leave it be that by not letting the opposition Polish politicians in Belarus, the Belarusian authorities have virtually play on the side of the Kaczynski brothers — the president and prime minister of Poland?
Official Minsk their values in this matter does not define, but, say, in Russia one of the Kremlin ideologists Gleb Pavlovsky says that segodnyaschy Poland with its internal policies and its policies in the European Union enjoy the Kremlin, while independent of its relations with the Russian . "
Boroditš-Smolinsky: "It seems to me that the Belarusian factor in the Polish elections will not play a big role. It is not, that he played a huge role in the matter is to attract as many cameras, so by all means get in announcements. You faster you get into them if you do not let in Belarus than normal if you drove across the border and was at these events, which were very moderate.

V.Barodich-Smolinski: "I do not believe that Lukashenko and the KGB are willing to support the Kaczynski — quite the contrary."

I do not believe that Lukashenko and the KGB are willing to support the Kaczynski — quite the contrary. I believe that the decision of the Belarusian authorities’ motive was quite vnutribelorussky, they want to show that do not support those people, that support Angelica Boris.
We must not forget that not all of the Polish minority in Belarus support or opposition Angelica Boris. There are those Poles who do not support anyone, whether or not the Alexander Lukashenko. And the ban on race Polish politicians could be a signal for them to show them the government’s attitude to those of Poles in Belarus, which do not cooperate with "decent" Union of Poles. "
Silitski: "I wish to note that the Polish politicians traveled to the celebration of a day or causes severe problems. Would I looked, like the Polish authorities to react, if someone from the Belarusian parliamentarians would come to the celebration of the reunification Gainovka Western Belarus and Eastern. That date , the celebration of which want to come Polish MPs associated with the main event in the modern history of Poland. But it is associated with one of the greatest disasters in the history of state of Belarus in the twentieth century.

V.Silitsky: "I would have looked like the Polish authorities would have reacted, if someone from the Belarusian parliamentarians would come to the celebration of the reunification Gainovka Western Belarus and Eastern."

Although I believe that it was not a prerequisite for the ban-in by the Belarusian authorities, since they do not think such national categories. But the question here is.
As for the question plays on the side of the Belarusian authorities Kaczynski — is a fascinating question. I do not think they talk so strategically, it is unlikely it was rising on some severe level.
I think that for a politician scandal — it’s newsworthy. Sovereign Tusk now have a win-win situation: if they allowed — would thundered that let in, they came there said something, if not vpustsi — is also newsworthy. So read that the Belarusian authorities play here on someone’s field, is not necessary. "
Who will be the next victim?
Drakakhrust: "In 2005, the Belarusian authorities have inspired split in the Union of Poles in Belarus, unrecognized part of the Union activists led by Angelika Borys this time subjected to harassment by the authorities. Not true incident happens to be the beginning of a sharp increase in repression, to unite people around the government against ethnic internal enemy? Fyodor Lukyanov, what do you think? "
Lukyanov: "I find it hard to judge, I’m not so stare at Belarusian events. Obviously, authoritarian regimes often use such tools. At the same time, I doubt that at the moment specifically Belarusian management is necessary, I do not see severe threats to it from the West, the elections are not expected Tipo.
Faster on the spot I would Minsk pondered major campaign against Russia. Lukashenko has plenty to read this account. I agree with the staff that the last conflict should not be called a war, but at least some contradictions splash with Moscow accompanied by a very strong statements. In fact, in those interviews that gave Lukashenko, the first Western media, some wording far beyond the scope of what is allowed for, let us say, Misha Saakashvili, which Moscow considers accurate adversary.

F.Luk ‘Ivanov: "In those interviews. Lukashenko who gave first year the Western media, some wording far beyond the scope of what is allowed for, let us say, Saakashvili."

Faster too will evolve in this direction. Especially since he can rely on the classical Russian antipathy to control the situation, if it is not love. Durable enough Kremlin reacted nervously to sample in friendly countries to play anti-Russian card in the midst of the population.
For example, during the first conflict with Belarus in 2004, a surge of anti-Russian propaganda confused Moscow. However, since that time Russian authorities began in this sense more tovstaskurymi. And their propaganda attacks are not very confusing, especially if they are confident in their own abilities and leverage. "
Boroditš-Smolinsky: "I think that they will still maintain the anti-Polish sentiment. This — Belarusian authorities philosophy that all is not bad in the East, and all bad — in the West."

V.Silitsky: "The answer to the question" Who wet? "Determined by the Belarusian authorities for political necessity."

Silitski: "The answer to the question" Who wet? "Determined by the Belarusian authorities for political necessity. During the Alliance of Poles took two years back, when I was a terrible reaction to the" color revolutions "and the role played by President Kwasniewski of Poland in the negotiations between the revolutionaries and the authorities in Ukraine. Then it really has been a favorite European policy towards Ukraine, and almost exactly he organized the transition from hand to hand Kuchma said.
That defeat the Union of Poles was not a provocation against the Belarusian Poles, but against Warsaw.
What came out in the Belarusian-Russian dychynennyah — August war, which was not, indicating that the Belarusian authorities currently afraid to aggravate. Might be willing to take the aggravation — and would not pay more. What came out showed that now conflict with Russia Belarusian authorities do not need. And who flog always went out and brought the Belarusian authorities. "

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