Tsigankov: "Today, for the next day after Vladimir Kanaplyou filed with the request for resignation, we try to analyze all the versions that have been made for this time. One of the vserasprostranennyh — what Kanaplyou failed to keep their own interests in biznese.Eta version, like no matter what the other has a right to exist, but does not leave the answer to the question why exactly at the moment went cannabis. After all, their business interests he has at least a 96-year, and it did not stop him from being one of the closest people to Lukashenko. What happened, he crossed some line? "
Own activity in the oil business Kanaplyou came into conflict with itself Lukashenko
Kalinkina: "You quite rightly noted that hemp has always been very active in the business as lyabista any companies. But so far his conflicts were either businessmen or bureaucrats. Currently we have a fundamentally different situation, because criminal proceedings were instituted in the oil business. As you know, the oil business — this is specifically what makes presidential budget fund. Because Kanaplyou came into conflict not with some ordinary bureaucrat, and specifically with Lukashenko himself. Indeed, if oil laundered funds, the they do not reach the control of the country.
I believe that it first specifically — those appetites that are not managed to keep himself and his Canaple business partners — was the main precondition for his resignation. "
Tsigankov: "But if Vladimir Kanaplyou resigned as he can to protect its own business partners without having already post. Resignation, he will not help them — maybe it was reasonable to stay and defend? … "
Kalinkina "Kanaplyou currently just protecting himself. This is not the first such case with friends Konopleva. And history shows that it protects them in the Macarena, which helps them to leave the country to avoid being arrested. For example, so- was now "Euroopt" and Sergei Litvin, who is currently in Poland. I think that he will try to leave Kanaplyou in Russia — he helps out at the moment myself and nobody else. "
"Konopleva gladly surrendered all who could"
Lyabedzka: "Retired Vladimir Konopleva has several components. And fatter layer retired — financial. During this version vote certain facts. Over recent months point attacks were made specifically for those people, which were very close to him and engaged in business. Remained intact only auto Vaganova — and then give this explanation: this project has political overtones, then coupled with the Iranians release a new car.
If you look at the past, they say examples of past dismissals for economic version. How went Titenkov, Zhuravkova? Specifically, since Lukashenko put on the table information to confirm that they did more than and they were allowed to steal — not what the government, but the head of the ruler.
I think at the moment, after, How to finish questioning people who were economically linked to Kanaplyou, on a table at Lukashenko left many volumes that would be enough for several criminal cases. And it was the same straw that outweighed in the balance "Tsigankov:" Anatoly, if we discussed retired KGB chairman Sukharenko, you stated that the fight ends Clan, and will create a unified supermotsnaya power structure. Either gets resignation Konopleva in this scheme? "
Lyabedzka: "This is just the second principal component of retirement Konopleva. Course trimmed room for the new policy — Viktor Lukashenko. Kanaplyou himself in many of their characteristics did not fall under it, to be integrated into the newest team. Together with Viktor Lukashenko all work- ‘re smart people, and if this scenario will be realized (until he spare), will be presented to the new people, moreover, will be charged a certain imitation of changes in Belarus.
Lukashenko young to come up with some sign that it is followed by some changes. And here Kanaplyou was a stranger, he was aware that the emergence of Victor Lukashenko means lowering its economic capabilities, his political abilities. He took some steps. Elbow, and it is with great pleasure passed all who could — I mean, information on economic affairs Konopleva. "
Tsigankov: "That clears the way Alexander Lukashenko own successor, Viktor own offspring — a version expressed in our air Fyaduta Alexander." Those former colleagues Lukashenko, who more than anyone else knows about it and remember his son as a frightened guy that looked out due to his father’s shoulder — they realize that they need to go, "- said Fyaduta and talked to him, that cannabis is removed, that he could not influence the results of the parliamentary elections. Svetlana as convincing for you it seems version?"
Kalinkina: "I have the memory that Shal’nikov not fully defined its own version. Indeed, we all know that at the moment Viktor Lukashenko gaining his team and it is gaining influence. Konopleva But imagine that will influence the formation of this team or on the results of parliamentary elections — it sounds fantastic.
I think the reason is different. Those who currently comes to Viktor Lukashenko, helps him, they can not become influential politicians, sitting in their own offices. They need to keep under control the harsh policies and the economy. Oil business there will always be the first priority.
In this sense, cannabis has become a hamper on this road. And not in a political sense, as he starts his game and some will let the project "successor"
"Must stay or Shejman or Viktor Lukashenko"
Tsigankov: "Now some analysts on the lips of such a phrase -" follow — Shejman. "How do you see the logic in this scenario?"
Kalinkina: "Viktor Lukashenko and Viktor Sheiman converge on the same field, and one of them has to go. On the other hand, Alexander Lukashenko is afraid and does not want to be alone. He needs someone on whom you can always cancel and disappearances and arrests of politicians — everything. Lukashenko Because right hand ready to sign a decree on the resignation Sheiman and left his crease and throws in the trash. This is for him to be a very difficult political and psychological decision, but the logic of events exactly like this — should stay or Shejman or Viktor Lukashenko. "
Tsigankov: "Sometime in the 90 states that Alexander Lukashenko never surrender with 3 persons: Tityankova, Konopleva and Sheiman. Titenkov and hemp is far from power. Sheiman turn? "
Lyabedzka: "Shejman itself is not the first week and month asks Lukashenko to release him for the room. It currently attracts diplomatic career, he was not at one point had already traveled to Venezuela, to be an ambassador in the country — would be very bad not to continue their careers Sheiman. Heavenly place, where you can continue the business, a fascinating country, the regime is very similar — it is safe and quiet. Think Shejman worn to a large extent, performing delicate requests Lukashenko. The question of resignation Shejman already appeared, and there is a version of rumors that he took in Tipo time it is very painful, and said that he just will not accept the resignation, and is willing to sacrifice own life.
But there is a real clash on the political plot that will not tolerate a few people claiming special impact on Lukashenko. Until nedavneshnego time Shejman controlled everything — the secret services, "access to the body," Lukashenko — it was his monopoly. With the emergence of Victor Lukashenko he loses this monopoly. And for him at the moment the best option — to find a comfortable place, benign, with guarantees and renewal business and certain influence. "