Will the opposition marches affect the socio-political situation in the country?

Ivashkevich: "Different actions pose different objectives"
Valery Karbalevich "Street rallies opposition has long become commonplace Belarusian political life. In this case, the usual and for the authorities and society, and to the opposition itself. These are all used. And most importantly — the sonorous resonance they are not even in the media. Scheduled for the fall of two important opposition campaign — "European March for Freedom" on October 14 and "Socialist march" on November 4. Will they be different from that of kshataltu events occurring within in recent years?
Viktor Ivashkevich: "Various actions pose different objectives. There are ritual actions which aim to feel the elbow ally in protecting some ideas: for example, the celebration of days Freedom March 25. This intra-action.
And there’s action, through which organizers aim to change something in the process that are specific tasks, requirements. So, March 19, 2006 people came to the area, hoping that they affect the outcome of elections, fair vote count.
At the moment, the initiators of the "Euro march" put the puzzle push power before starting the criterion Euro Union (EU). At least, the opposition wants to achieve, so that in the end not only of the march, and generally fall campaign, international pressure had been released all political prisoners.
2nd march task — to show the unity of the opposition in action. And in one, and in the 2nd march uchavstvujut all subjects opposition. But the leading roles, responsibilities are divided. Left forces responsible for luck "Public march" and we help. In contrast, for luck "Euro march" meet BPF UCP, "Charter 97", European Coalition. Others help.
The purpose of the "Public march" — to reach those levels of society, which is more interested in your stomach than the principles and ideas. Accordingly, the materials will be prepared on the benefits prepyadstviya elderly, businessmen and others.
Yuri Chausov: "The very question of the differences from past today shares rather artificial. Indeed, street democracy — what little is left in the democratic forces in terms of finding ways of communicating with the public. Because ritual and shares and shares with certain requirements do show function that society has candidacy.
In addition, "European march", "Soc march" — a method of preparation for the elections to the House of Representatives. So makarom opposition claims a day or its agenda for this election: EU requirements and social issues.
As to whether payment for the replacement of public sentiment?
Karbalevich "These autumn marches planned to suit speculate that changing the public mood, the situation in and around the country. New economic relations with Russia, the new energy prices, the abolition of privileges last year Belarus’ proposals from the EU must act on the public mood and willingness population to accept the opposition’s proposals.
But this conjecture is correct? And could it be that under the influence of these new alarms population more zgurtuetstsa around the leader and the opposition will be perceived as an aggressive force? "
Ivashkevich: "First, this figure is unrealistic, if not to hold such shares. Obviously, we can do nothing, sit and complain that there are no guarantees on the support of society.
In-2, have polls running doctor Manaeva May. Equate themselves to the opposition 16.5% of people. 68% say that their outlook is not considered by the authorities during the decision-making. 56% believe that the opposition is needed. In other words, most people wish that there was opposition, which pulls power. In a situation voltage people are afraid to keep all eggs in one basket. They tend to shmatvaryyantnaga ability to resolve the situation.
Because strategic statement of the opposition’s willingness to negotiate perceived by our excellent, not striving for extremism society. Due to pressure from Russia and the West, all twisted in such a tangle that may face the situation of the place.
Now about the mass actions. If the action is held on the occasion of a certain date, then the person can judge something like this: March 25 I mention the house. When he concludes that specifically from his role depends a shift, then there will need to join the action. People are worried the latest events — it’s a fact. "
Chausov: "Apparently society: there is a build-up problems. And our criteria monopolization of media power — this is a great resource opposition. Indeed, without the help of others to bring to the public some information, for example, about 12 EU requirements, the opposition in the state.
Problem planned marches — reincarnate urgent social prepyadstviya in political, give them political overtones. The purpose of the opposition — use this resource to offer society candidacy. I think these marches will asset — in the broad sense of awareness.
The significance of street protests reflect fear of the authorities. For instance, nationwide authorities have allowed only one rally to protect entitlements: fear of man with a placard somewhere even in a crowded place — an area of Bangalore where else. Because the opposition decided not wasted on these weave malehankih pickets, and one way to spend tribute "Soc march."
What aspects can be found success or disaster action?
Karbalevich: "Usually after the next street action can follow the following picture: Followers justify opposition confident that everything is fine, action was possible, the objectives are achieved. A media-independent analyzes and provides something like this: all happening again on the same bad script — people do not enough, not enough creativity, etc.
So any technology developed success, efficiency street action? If so, whether the opposition is going to use them during the following actions? . "
Ivashkevich: "Such aspects were presented during the first press conference" Euro march. "In 1-x, in May the EU proposal knew 23%. We put puzzles, ultimately our company (a march — one of its parts) befitting information received over 50% of the urban population. And it can be tracked sociological research.
In-2, we want to collect on the "European march" people no less than it was on March 19 area 2006. B-3, we assume that success, if it holds at least one criterion of the EU.
Chausov: "For the average participant who come to this event, the efficiency aspect is that the action was accomplished. For organizers of the march can be considered correct aspects of voiced Ivashkevich. Fundamentally, that heard the messages of society declared on the marches.
But all sorts of public events have largely cumulative effect. Because assess unit share with viewpoint some result, it is unrealistic and incorrect.
Marches are very important in terms of preparing for the next elections. Likely, authorities seek to hold elections in the House of Representatives passed the scenario of local elections. In other words — that it was not only not an election (in the sense that it does not consider the vote), but that it was not even a public event. Just hold elections possible quieter — so they do not turned into a political campaign.
Opposition marches through these authorities should lead to a particular political agenda a day or — that the problem of benefits, energy calculations, and relations with the EU were heard during the election campaign. That authority was obliged to give their answers. Then the opposition will propose a candidate. "

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