Will the Euro after the march dialogue between the authorities and the opposition?

Minsk city executive committee resolved to hold a "European march" on October 14. How can the authorities to comment on this decision? Why detain opposition? Do the authorities separate strategy against the opposition?
Why have allowed "European march"?
Valery Karbalevich: "The permit authorities to conduct a" Euro march "seems nothing unusual. Recent years, the government generally allowed other large opposition rally — on the day of the Will, "Chernobyl Way", but all this changed the gathering place, the procession route, pointing it at the Bangalore area.
But it is curious that week and a half reverse power is not allowed to hold pickets in defense of social rights. Of 458 applications in the country, only three met. Not even allowed to hold pickets in Bangalore Square.
Moreover, the police conducted a special operation the whole — walking on the applicant’s flat and sought to abandon writing pickets and campaigning for "Public march."
How do you explain such acts of the authorities? "
Viktor Ivashkevich: "aggravated the economic situation in the country. Moreover, the authorities understand that there is a tendency to worsen in the coming year.
Authorities do not want to change anything in the state want to preserve their power in full. But once they are willing to get millions of dollars of economic relations with Europe.
Because the authorities have to do something to resolve through the "do not want" under the pressure of the European Union. Although all their insides tends to the previous scheme of pressure on the opposition.
Hence haatychnasts action. With one side, allow "European march", and on the other hand, continued repression. March organizers invited to negotiate the city council, and at the exit of the 1st of their arrest.
This chaos in the behavior of the authorities from the fact that the entire system is focused on repression. And the order of finish no repression. And because such inconsistency in the actions of the authorities. "
Yuri Chausov "European march", unlike nedavneshnih pickets in defense of social rights, the EU had tremendous support. This explains the great gentleness to "Euro march."
Second reason for such different things to different shares is that the authorities at the moment fear social themes more than ideologically pro-European themes. Therefore permitted "European march".
Karbalevich: "Or maybe everything is easier explained? Pickett just stop. But if" European march "comes a huge amount of people, they just do not overclock.
Because maybe there is a valid logic: if they all the same gather, and it is better to let them impose a certain route — on the same area of Bangalore. "
Chausov: "We’ll see, will allow for" Socialist march. "On the scale of action similar, but by the content, mottos — different. And we can say that the opposition’s strategy to go with 2 marches quite reasonable."
Why detain opposition before the action?
Karbalevich: "As usual (so do the last two years), recently launched street protests police detentions and arrests of opposition activists. More active here for some reason the regional authorities.
Here on this time a disk imaging in this regard comes from Gomel and Grodno. Apparently, than closer to the "Euro march", the more arrests. How can is to comment on? "
Ivashkevich: "The task of government — to reduce the number of marchers. Can imagine, the authorities have information that many people will come. If they believed that their will is not much, then, as with the pickets, forbade be detained.
Arrests in regions need to scare people, so they did not go on the march in Minsk. But I think the scale of repression will not be the same as the other day, March 19, 2006 or March 25, 2007, when the number of arrests was 10 matches and weave. Indeed, the situation is different in the relations with the European Union. "
Chausov: "I would not agree with the fact that these arrests authorities seek to reduce the number of marchers. Danger march to the authorities — not the number of participants.
This persecution, especially in the regions — the usual pattern of behavior of the authorities in the run-up to the important social and political events. Authorities are acting on the orders because it is not canceled. In Minsk, yet can be unscrewed.
Here is the sovereign Ivashkevicha delay, release. In regions regulate an old scheme difficult. Because at the moment arrested those usually arrested before the mass actions. "
Ivashkevich: "There are lists of those who should be arrested, which amounted to two years backwards."
Do power strategy against the opposition?
Karbalevich: "Favourites opposition tend to reincarnate" European march "a factor that will change the political atmosphere in the country to start a dialogue between the authorities and the opposition.
To do this, sent a letter to the deputy head of the presidential administration Natalya Pyatkevich. But she responded formal unsubscribing. This means, that to any dialogue with the opposition now the authorities are not ready.
Is there anyway to clear them some if not a strategy, the strategy against the opposition? What is the logic? "
Ivashkevich: "Change the behavior of the authorities can be an economic crisis. While acts ancient programm. But she climbed virus uncertainty. Authorities are now confused. Most leading officials still considers that it can" everything will resolve itself. "
This year the situation has changed in the sense that action triggers the opposition, and the government responds. Previously, it was the opposite. Pay attention, the official propaganda says nothing about the "European march".
Zimouski stated that "European march" — it’s not awesome. If we remember that we previously poured slop here felt confused authorities. The former system is faltering, the latest not invented. "
Karbalevich: "No matter what kontraprapaganda at the same time, there is advertising. Because the authorities decided to keep quiet about the" European march ". Ivashkevich you waited about such a response from Ms. Pyatkevich?"
Ivashkevich: "I thought that there is a 30% chance that she would agree to meet with representatives of the opposition. But I wish to see that Ms. Pyatkevich gave an official response, suggesting contact the Minsk city executive committee. Earlier no such letter did not give any answers."
Karbalevich: "Yes, indeed, neither Lukashenko has not responded to the appeal Milinkevich nor Sidorsky not responded to the letter Liabedzka."
Chausov: "Yes, at the moment the government must respond to the challenges that makes the opposition. Manage Belarus believed that fairly be said in Brussels on willingness to cooperate with the European Union — and can be get European credits.
But it turned out that this must begin to take steps towards democratization. And the authorities puzzled. No specific strategies have oscillations from side to side. "
Karbalevich "So makarom, all incidents related to "European march" will be a test of the willingness of the authorities to change their policies. "

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