England: Farewell to the EU, goodbye, Scotland?

UK: Farewell to the EU, goodbye, Scotland?British Prime Minister David Cameron has always been suspicious of those untold powers that have the "European institutions". English people, on the views of Mr Cameron, is angry that the EU takes major decisions without first obtaining their mandate of voters. January 23, their judgments about the likely withdrawal from the EU Cameron issued by the tribunal of the public. But do not be prudent to assume as if the United Kingdom from the European Union will be released immediately — immediately right after uttering seditious speech Cameron.

In 1-x, the Prime Minister expressed the hope that before the withdrawal from the European Union will not come: after all, a united Europe will be able to reform its structure and back again shaken the confidence of people. In-2, Cameron himself — not a supporter of such output: even though he offered to hold referendum about the upcoming membership in the EU, but added that if a referendum he will to campaign for the retention of England as part of an updated European Union.

On referendum Cameron said during a keynote speech on relations of England and the European Union to entrepreneurs in the English headquarters of the South American business news agency "Bloomberg". The prime minister said that the referendum will take place, if his party will overcome the Conservatives in the elections in 2015. In this case, the vote will take place no earlier than 2017.

Referendum itself, of course, need the government in order to understand the will of the British. Not enough, Cameron believes that if you do not hold a plebiscite, the possibility of withdrawal from the European Union will only increase: it is now support for EU membership has dropped in the middle of the English. The reason for that — a number of problems faced by the Alliance. Here, the crisis of the euro area, and a decrease in competitiveness in the world market, and the crisis of confidence in the EU by ordinary people (referring to the mandatory limit bureaucracy evroinstitutov).

And, if you proceed with the reforms of the European Union, it is waiting for the inevitable collapse. What is Britain? That's right — get out of the Union. How to improve matters? A must enclose between all European Union countries a new contract. Per se, which would produce not only one of England, and all the other Member States more opportunities than there are in real time. Than other countries do not zahochut heed this initiative, then London is ready to enter into a separate agreement with the EU, providing for his special status. Cameron, so Makarov, all anticipating. In logic, he can not refuse.

British commentators have calculated and one of the circumstances under which the prime raised the issue of a plebiscite. It is believed that Cameron has proposed a referendum on British membership of the EU under pressure from eurosceptics now prevailing in the ranks of the party he leads Limited.

A favorite of Labour's Ed Miliband considers, that the Conservatives are trying to protect themselves from the growing "Independence Party." That is why they decided to "play it on the field": Euro-skeptics offered a sympathetic perspective. Miliband warned that the review, and even more break in relations with the European Union is fraught with economic damage sensitive Britain.

Expert Euro Institute English School of Economics and Political Science Ian Begg also said that the debate on the future of Britain in the EU almost all justified by political motives. As consequences, it said, that they are still hard to predict. Insulation, in his opinion, likely. With all of this option is likely and Norway, not an EU member, but a member of the Euro economic space.

Not counting the "Euro-skeptics" are found in Britain, and "Europhiles".

They point out that Norway and Switzerland are required to use approximately 70% of the rules of the European Union, but for all that they are not involved in their development. Simon Tilford of the Centre for European Reform of English reads:

"If Britain was not a member of the European Union, the set of rules would be much more protective. The British for decades promoted in the EU a day or agenda: free trade and the greatest economic liberalism. No English is now the role of the EU would be the least liberal. "

In addition, Norway and Switzerland deduct funds (respectively 0.5 and 1.0 billion. Dollars per year) European budget as a fee for access to the common market. Prime Minister of Norway Espen Eide, even in public, Cameron warned against copying the Norwegian way.

Obviously, spoke to the painful subject, and Herman Van Rompuy, President of the Council of the Euro. This sovereign right said he would not be allowed to Britain in its sole discretion to choose those pieces of legislation of the euro, which it to your liking. He said that membership in the European Union — "not … menu in the restaurant."

The output of Britain from the European Union and not to the liking of the main partners of London. For example, the Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny said that the output would be a disaster for the Irish economy because it is closely integrated with the English. Gunther Krihbaum, presiding in the German Parliament in the Committee on European Affairs expressed fear that Cameron 'risks immobilize the EU for years. " And the head of the German Ministry of Foreign Affairs Guido Westerwelle said angrily: "The policy of cherry-picking will not work," adding that all EU countries must comply with all federal laws. The Minister of Foreign Affairs Jose Manuel Garcia-Margalit in an interview with Spanish radio station said that Mr Cameron has "a very terrible game by feeding euroscepticism." Not approved undertaking the British Prime Minister and overseas. Washington clearly gave him to understand that lust, that England remained in the EU.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel expressed more cautiously. She believes Cameron's "friend", but he has to make a "breather." With regard to the rules of the eurozone, they should be "mandatory" for her, but "freely available" in other EU countries, such as England.

Participated in the debate over a possible referendum on Britain leaving the EU and billionaire George Soros. On Thursday night dining in Davos, Soros said that Cameron, who is under political pressure "from the back row," started a terrible gambit that can really lead to the departure of England from the EU. He added that Britain currently holds the "best position of all the possible" because, by participating in the EU, it is not affected by the crisis of the single European currency, unlike many others. Soros believes that the strength of concrete lying in the base of the euro, the EU can push each other.

Inside the UK, too, not everyone is happy initiatives Cameron. The Confederation of British Industry warned Government, in the case of withdrawal from the EU export industries may face a barrage duties. A reduction can get up to 40% of capacity automotive industry. A significant part of the Eur
opean banks will leave the City of Frankfurt am Main. All this will lead to a reduction in revenues of the budget of English.

But this objection supporters out of the EU because Britain can maintain a role in the overall market. At the same time, it may enter into a free trade agreement with the BRICS countries through the WTO mechanisms. "Eurosceptics" and they say that after leaving the EU will drop food supplied from outside Europe. Now be it cheap prevent protective tariffs, to maintain farmers in France, Romania, Spain. Supporters also point out that Britain so makarom rid of unnecessary regulation of business. As a result, there will be new jobs number over a million. They would get just the British: after leaving the EU, the country simply close the labor market for Europeans. Though not reported, that will do the English emigrants and immigrants. Today, 2.3 million people out of the EU lives in Britain, and 800 thousand Englishmen living in other EU countries.

Then take the word "Europhiles", indicating that millions of jobs will be lost by the state — due to the fact that international companies from the U.S., the Land of the Rising Sun, India, China finished invest in Britain and transferred business to other European countries.

In short, how many professionals and analysts do not listen, and imposed a conclusion: there is uncertainty. No one can say with certainty what will happen to Britain if it left the EU. One thing is clear: the country is in a fever. And already feverish pound fell against the euro to the smallest level since August 2012. In January, he fell relative to the U.S. dollar and the yen.

Head of Sector political problems of European integration IMEMO Sergei Utkin said that the Conservatives have not counted the pros and cons of separation from the EU until they are worried only "ideological construction". He reads:

"They are convinced that the British did not need a decaying European Union, after all, they have the commonwealth, and London — the money center of the world. But Britain out of the EU is unlikely to be a significant independent value in global politics and economy. "

That is more or less imagine the consequences of Britain's exit from the Union, it is necessary realize, what role the country plays in Europe. Britain — the third-largest European economy, a more liberal, flexible enough, with well-developed services sector. The Anglo-Saxon financial model is closer to the U.S., if a Western. London with all this — the largest money center Old World.

The behavior of Britain in the EU has always been distinguished oppositional. The country is trying to block integration initiatives that infringe on its sovereignty or political as financial independence. The introduction of the EU single tax on financial transactions London torpedoed, and the European Monetary Union, he just did not participate. In the Schengen agreement, he also does not set. When you leave the UK from the EU euro zone may fall under the domination of Germany and France. You can even predict the creation of another Reich — through peaceful means, obviously, say, a democratic vote and monetary fed lagging countries — such as Greece and Spain. In the latest "federation" and will own president — say, Angela Merkel.

South American analysts, by the way, notice, that of Mr Cameron's speech is not clear what specific "concessions" from the EU expects Britain. In the past year, his government began what has been called the "Review the balance of competences." But this document is under development. Cameron says that the "Browse" will give reasonable and fair analysis of where the EU is Britain's interference and where he is, on the contrary, it helps. Therefore difficult to judge how successful can be a struggle for Britain "concession." Experts do not behold the good reasons for withdrawal from the Union, and do not give enough chances for the majority of votes "yes" in the referendum. In addition, the party should be Cameron's first defeat in the elections, and later read about the referendum.

As for France — one of strongest economies of the EU — then Minister of Foreign Affairs of that country Laurent Fabius said, that if Britain decides to leave the union, Paris would not stand in his way. Next in artistic style Fabius sarcastically added that if Britain wishes to "leave Europe, we roll it out for her reddish carpet."

Seriously take that comment makes no sense Fabius tried to make fun of the rich French, who now emigrate to a variety of countries around the world, including in the UK, running away from the high taxes imposed by Hollande.

Fabius also saw that, once you come into a football club, you will not be able to offer to start playing rugby. Here he seems to be cunning or, at least, allow incorrect: Britain lot bargained for when joining the "European Club". The mere rejection of the euro currency is worth: it is possible to say that country-party does not recognize the shape of the club.

Continuing the "French" theme, need to see that in the last days of the French conducted two surveys: IFOP, ordered «Journal Du Dimanche», and BVA — for the rival newspaper «Le Parisien». If in the first survey revealed, that for the preservation of Britain the European "club" voted 58 percent of the respondents (42 per cent — against), the BVA poll showed that over English out of the EU («Brexit») 52% of respondents were in favor.

Unlikely premise data discrepancy is somewhat different wording of questions are generally quite similar. IFOP survey questionnaire focused on the desire to respondents, so their country entered or remained in the EU; BVA poll figure out whether the respondents considered more suitable stay in England in the Union, or prefer output.

Curiously, IFOP poll showed strong support for maintaining Britain's Union among young voters. 75 percent of them under the age of 35 years were in favor of the host country of the EU.

But a poll in the British "Times" showed, that, if a referendum were held today, 40% would vote for withdrawal from the EU, while 37% expressed a desire to remain in the Union. Another 23% were undecided.

Meanwhile, Nick Clegg, the favorite of the Liberal Democrats, said that the prospective deal with the EU may be the key to the creation of the newest coalition of political forces in Britain. He submitted, that the Liberal Democrats could accept a referendum on withdrawal from the EU as part of a future deal to form a coalition with the Tories. "Libdemy," he says, might think that the referendum could be crucial for the formation of a coalition — in this case neither the Conservatives nor the Labour Party does not receive a direct majority in the next general election in 2015.

With all this Clegg reiterated his opposition to the proposal Cameron that the future Tory government is ready to review the membership of the EU in Britain, and then hold a referendum on withdrawal. He just did not realize proposal of the Prime Minister:

"I just do not understand … the revision of the criteria for membership UK … for now … it's quite vague, — said Clegg. — And I think it will scare away investors and slow the growth of jobs, which must remain our absolute value at a time when the economy is trying to recover from the crisis. "

Still, Clegg bel
ieves that the way can be found to hold a referendum on other grounds, provided the coalition agreement. "Alternative" would mean, probably, the popular vote for a coalition of 2-parties. Clegg said he would follow the will of the British people — and, rather than people wish to se a coalition, it will be made everything possible for her creation.

In conclusion, the need to see that, but the will of the British people, there is also the will of the people of Scotland. It will be suggested earlier — in 2014, at the planned referendum on independence. If the Scots will take into account the possible course of future coalition Cameron or the Tories and "libdemov" for burdening relations with the EU, or even more so on output from there, they are just the proponents of integration, may deliberately vote for secession of Scotland from the UK — so then separately enter into the European 'club'. However, for this the Scots have to go through all the bureaucratic procedures that could drag on for years. On the other hand, in times of crisis it is even fine: maybe in a couple of years, "club" will come to life. And maybe on the contrary — will fall apart.

Surveyed and translated Oleg Chuvakin
— Especially for topwar.ru

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