The margin of the economy
We live in the criteria of an open economy, subject to the rules of liberal globalization. In this situation, the development of any country is determined by a combination of internal and external sources of supply of funds. Our economy in this sense appeared in the last two decades in a dependent position. We had issued a proposal means a foreign currency gain under cash reserves. In other words, in the development of our economy, the main role played by external sources. Whether it's the demand for our raw material or an offer of foreign capital.
The consequence of such external dependence are trivial for all prepyadstviya our economic status. And again — raw specialization. It is understood that economy developed in those areas where it comes from demand. If the demand comes from those who have foreign currency and who is interested in buying the Russian raw materials, it inevitably leads to hypertrophy of the resources sector, which dominates our economy.
The second consequence is the dominance of foreign capital in the stock market. For a long time most of the operations are performed on it in favor of foreign entities.
The third and completely natural consequence is ofshorizatsiya economy. If the main sources of foreign exchange deals are abroad, the executive capital, adapting a thing of the offshore zone. From there, it is easier to work with the international capital market.
The last result, reasonably summarizing the past, is the loss of domestic sources of development.
Noteworthy that in the acute phase of the financial crisis, all these places frail Russian economy were bare. We have sunk to record lows of the stock market — three times. We have almost a record decline in GDP. Also — a record decline in the industry and, at first, mechanical engineering. Only Ukraine and the Baltic states looked worse in the acute phase of the financial crisis. This apparent weakness of the Russian monetary system, which has long been generated by means of the inflow of foreign currency in exchange for Russian raw materials in the form of foreign investment.
In this situation the Russian foreign exchange authorities responded with dramatic changes of monetary policy. We have for the first time in 20 years, fled to domestic credit as a principal. At the time, these sources have become dominant, and this state of affairs persists to this day.
For the first time in a year we look that the refinancing of commercial banks by the issuance of central bank became the main channel of foreign exchange supply. Coupled with the fact saved and quantitative restrictions, and the outer relation, and the situation when the credits on Russian market more than the offer zabugornye sources. This relationship has already played in the new criteria.
Immediately and leading zabugornye issuers responded to the crisis has pumped into the economy of their countries.
Monetary base is the leading issuers of the Big Four — the U.S., the UK, the EU Member States, the Land of the Rising Sun — has increased by 3-5 times. And it came out during any three years. Despite the collapse of financial pyramid schemes, monetary pumping continues. This creates favorable conditions for the growth of the forthcoming monetary pyramid, supported by monetary emission. An indication of this is the renewed growth of the assets that go out of the banking regulation. The volume of derivatives (derivative securities, ie "paper on paper") once again headed for a quadrillion dollars. Moreover, it has grown over the past three years, yet another third. Foreign exchange authorities leading nations of the world fled to the long-term policy of negative interest rates. In other words, give as much money as needed to support economic activity. And at first to keep afloat the banking sector.
We also own a restrictive policy, which is reflected in relatively high interest rates, find ourselves in a vulnerable position in the competitive global printing presses. Long-term means that the government receives from natural gas production, we are investing for 2-3% in securities zabugornye paper. Our borrowers in the same place, abroad, through the appropriate banks get loans at 6-8% per annum.
In this World War II monetary printing presses Our homeland is losing a year to $ 100 billion. bucks. With all of this 35-50 billion. we lose just on the difference in interest rates. How long can this last financial alchemy, when huge amounts of money are being made simply out of nothing? The European Central Bank, for example, for a moment, emits more than a trillion euros. To earn the money from oil and gas exports, it took us 10 years.
The financial turbulence
Segodnyaschy financial turbulence is not something new in the history of the world. This process is happening at times. The modern theory of waves longish now uncovered the mechanism of the transition of the economy from the steady-state growth in the monetary regime of turbulence. It always appears when the present technological system achieves the limits of their own development. The financial structure becomes rigid. Monopoly, prices for manufactured products, first at energoelementy. After that, a significant portion of real sector companies go bankrupt. Industry gets into a zone of low profitability, which entails withdrawal of capital from the real sector and its concentration in the speculative sector. Such financial turbulence could last 10-15 years.
Access to the new steady-state, or a longish latest wave of economic growth, occurs when the left after the collapse of the bubble breaks for capital itself the way to newcomer technological life. This process is accompanied by the aggravation of international competition. The country's leaders are trying to throw off its structural prepyadstviya the periphery. This is due to the fact that the transition to a new technological line of traffic on this scale asks cyclopean investment. Their private sector, generally, can not organize. In the criteria of monetary turbulence, he focuses on the Short-term goal of survival of speculative profits.
In such an era rapidly growing part of the country. Municipal capitalism which discussions are now — a very peculiar phenomenon of this period. Indeed, in this kind of a time when the need of a powerful impetus, the government is beginning to play a more active role in the economy. In the criteria of a democratic country, this role usually played by the militarization of the economy.
This happens because liberal theory does not leave the state of huge capacity for a role in the economy. Only public safety remains the area that does not cause an ideological rejection. And the initiating pulse of the country is very important from the standpoint of the demand for new technologies that have not yet worked out by the market. History indicates that investments in cutting-edge areas
of the new technological order, hitherto passed through the deep militarization of the economy. In the previous era, this resulted in Straseni catastrophe — the Second World War. The subsequent structural crisis of this kind took place through an arms race in outer space, which had been invested huge amounts of money. In the U.S., at the expense of municipal expenditures was created nucleus of the new technological order in information and communication development. 25 years, it has attracted the economy forward, expanding by 25% a year.
Militarization of the money to the war
At the moment we litsezreem deployment monetary war that pin our hopes will not cross into that escalation of military spending, which was characteristic of past eras. Just for the reason that the new technological order is humanitarian in nature. The biggest sector of the economy is health care, and, together with education and research they provide the underlying demand for new technologies. As such, for the arms race itself does not provide the impetus that gave earlier for the technological modernization of the economy.
Coupled with the fact the monetary phase of the war in which we are now, it is very unsafe. Our homeland is not mastering the domestic sources of foreign exchange proposals. Almost monetary mass is formed by external sources. With all of this our homeland once a year loses about 100 billion. dollars in non-equivalent foreign economic exchange. This is a huge "loss of blood" in the economy. It entails the loss of the opportunity to develop independently and defeat on the new round of economic competition.
Like other developing countries, Our homeland is the donor of the global monetary system, where one-sided advantage is given to issuing countries of global reserve currencies, the U.S. first. But the donation itself would still not as unsafe, if not accompanied by de-industrialization and the degradation of the economy.
China is also a donor, but its banking system to a great extent based on domestic sources of credit. They get access to endless longish money and are kept under the supervision of the implementation of modernization and development. Chinese experience — as well as the example of others, successfully developing States in the new criteria — forces us to think about the good and substantial configurations, both in domestic and in external economic policy. Quite obviously, that we need a shift to domestic sources of supply of funds. At all times it is necessary to expand the scope and terms of credit. Go with it to support sources of credit, we have to have and domestic assets. And if 60% of large property owners are registered in offshore zones, then on their internal sources for yourself will not work.
It is necessary to convince the owners to return the assets to the country and to give an opportunity to expand the collateral under the domestic sources of credit. Expansion of domestic credit must be accompanied by the restoration of monetary control. In order to ensure that funds are not left on zabugorny market, as it was in the acute phase of the crisis, and sent to the real sector for its modernization.
Immediately we need to think about how to prevent outside financial activity was more self-sufficient and developed in those areas, which would give us the ability to extract excessive profits at the expense of scientific and technological advantages.