The internal situation in Syria. Will the Assad and the Syrian Army resistance in implementation of the Libyan scenario?

The internal situation in Syria.  Will the Assad and the Syrian Army resistance in implementation of the "Libyan scenario?"

The situation around Syria is on the run-in scenario — the "wave" for the "wave" beating up on Damascus. U.S. authorities have imposed new sanctions against Damascus, they have expanded the list of Syrian officials, which extended the South American economic sanctions. It on Tuesday, August 30, told Agence France-Presse. New South American sanctions have touched the Syrian Foreign Affairs Minister Walid Muallem, the Syrian President's advisor Butayny Shaaban and Ambassador Syria Lebanon Ali Abdul Karim Ali. All assets in U.S. banks should be frozen. In addition, citizens of the United States prohibit the support of those persons any business case. Washington believes that such acts posodeystvuyut increase pressure on Damascus.

Earlier, in May, the U.S. imposed sanctions against the president Bashar al-Assad and other senior Syrian officials. August 10 by the U.S. economic sanctions were naikrupneyshy Syrian Bank Commercial Bank of Syria, the telecommunications company Syriatel. In other words, the United States has virtually lead financial and economic war against Syria, undermining its stability through the economic sphere. It is clear that the deterioration of the economic situation, the discontent of the population will increase further.

The internal situation

The Syrian administration was thinking about reforming the country, even before the Arab unrest, as early as 2005 at a congress of the ruling Baath Party, the government announced the decision to initiate the reform: to adopt a law on freedom of the media, to allow the formation of opposition parties to make adjustments to the electoral law to do the reform of the country's economy, at first — to de-monopolize the big oligarchic enterprise. But the words have remained on paper.

The situation changed only after the country began to "swing." Authorities were trying to reform convulsively, immediately suppressing the opposition and militant attacks. It is clear that of success achieved in such a situation is very difficult. Very strong players on a planetary scale are interested in the collapse of Syria, its complete destabilization. Many political analysts believe that the Assad regime will inevitably fall. Syria dismember the terrain Alawites, Kurds, Sunnis, and maybe friends.

Syria — a presidential republic. Its main feature — it is strictly hierarchical system in which all power is concentrated in the hands of Bashar al-Assad and senior management of the ruling party. Assad family has ruled Syria, the second generation. In 2000, that killed Hafez al-Assad, who ruled the state steel hand of the past three decades (since 1970, when he made a coup to seize power) came to power young, received education in the UK Dr. Bashar al-Assad. Initially, the country was due to lead the eldest son of Hafez — Basilio al-Assad, but in 1994 he died in a car crash. The coming to power of Bashar al-Assad promised the Syrians to start reforms.

The internal situation in Syria.  Will the Assad and the Syrian Army resistance in implementation of the "Libyan scenario?"

Hafez al-Assad.

Syria — a multi-party countryAnd all Syrian parties have had to say about his own support for the policy leading Arab Baath Socialist Party — the Baath Party (Baath). MPs (250 people) are elected by direct popular vote for four-year terms. All past in the Syrian parliament party led by the Baath (Syria them seven) forms the Syrian National Progressive Front country. The president usually is at once general secretary of the Baath Party, and specifically Ba'athists put forward his candidacy for a national referendum. At the last national referendum Bashar al-Assad received 93% of votes. The Syrian president is elected for seven years, the number of terms in power is not limited. In the hands of the president of the country is concentrated control over the executive, legislative and judicial branches of government.

The judicial system of the Syrian Arab Republic (UAR) is a fascinating fusion of Islamic, Ottoman and French legal traditions. Since CAP is the basis of law, according to the constitution, Islamic law, although in reality the current legislation of the country is based on the Napoleonic Code. The Constitutional Tribunal of the country, which is the highest court, is composed of 5 arbitrators, one of which is the head of Syria, and the other four are appointed by the president. Because different Western non-governmental organizations not once blamed Damascus in the absence of a fair and independent judiciary. Also, the lack of freedom of speech, freedom of assembly and other freedoms.

Since 1963, the SAR has a state of emergency, which increases the ability of the authorities, it was canceled just not so long ago, in response to recent events. Authorities, law enforcement agencies made tight control over society.

A significant part of the economy is concentrated in the hands of the CAP only about 7% of the population. Among them stand out the Alawites, they are military and municipal elite of the country, and are kept under the control of a large part of the economy. Prior to the unrest average salary in Syria was about 200-300 dollars (close to the wages of the poor in the Russian provinces.) In general, because the CAP is not very lucky with the natural resources, the people live in poverty.

One of the huge mistakes that made the Syrian regime a few years back — is the choice of the wrong path of economic reform, Damascus followed the neo-liberal path. CAP lives off oil production (public sector), industry and agriculture. The more developed the Syrian branch — this extraction, oil refining, electric power, gas, phosphate mining, food, textile, chemical (making fertilizer, various plastics), electrical. Most of the national economy, which is in private property (small farm on their own land or paid), aimed specifically at the agricultural sector. But the most cereal land (between the Tigris and Euphrates), the last decade has given relatively small harvests due to drought. In the end, farmers are going bankrupt, are in decline. The authorities, having listened to the advice of professionals neoliberal economic model (they were trained in the West), began to reduce the subsidies for agriculture for the purchase of fuel, proper equipment used for irrigation, etc.

SAR Government, instead of supporting the modernization of agriculture and industry have invested in the area of non-manufacturing sector. Support the development of the banking and monetary sector, various insurance companies, the service sector and the similar "office" business. Banks are cashing in on "affordable" loans to financial barely literate population (one scenario with Russia 90s). In the end, many Syrians were ruined, the gap between the rich and the poor of these reforms has only grown. By 2005, unemployment rose to 20% among young people up to 30%. In addition
, the example program was eliminated employment assistance "young professionals." Earlier, the authorities had to provide graduates working place for 5 years, so that he could get the right experience, then he might have to choose — to stay or to find a new place. At the moment, the problem of job search should do himself a graduate.

It should be noted that an educated population in Hong many as the state introduced an indispensable secondary education free of charge. 4 universities in the country, in addition, a large number of Syrian people get higher education abroad, priemuschestvenno — in Russia and France. At universities around the system, as we have — there are free places for thrifty passed examinations in schools as "excellent", the other young people can get an education fee.

The economic problems of the population are compounded by state and religious conflicts. Syria, like most of the countries of the planet, multiethnic and multi. The main religion, as well as in the Middle East — Islam. With all of this the majority of the population SAR — Sunni. The elite of the country — in the main medium of Alawites. We have the existence of the Diaspora Shiites about 5% of Syria's population is Christian — both Orthodox Christianity (more than half) and Catholicism. Christians are in a good relationship with the government, but in the case of Islamists coming to power, they will find the latest home. The premise of the conflict yavna — if the Sunni majority (the majority of the poor and unemployed) all of the principal (ie currency) positions are held by Alawites. There is also a religious cause irritation of the Sunnis, many Sunni scholars (eg, Saudi Arabia) do not consider the Alawites as Muslims. It is a kind of order, which has its own ideology in the Islamic, Christian and Gnostic roots. Therefore, there is a question, and whether reliable support Assad's army, in case of conflict with NATO or Turkey. Even at the present time there are reports of fighting government units with deserters. The Sunnis have run out of the army. Although, of course the core of the army, its elite forces, intelligence agencies of the country will be faithful modes — they are staffed by Alawite.

In the field of public relations of the same is not complete peace of mind, even though the vast majority of the population of Arabs — up to 90%. The most unstable minority — are Kurds, their approximately 9%. They live in the northern regions of the country, there are communities of Kurds in all major towns. There are communities of Armenians — in Damascus, Aleppo, Circassians, Turkomans. The Kurds have been oppressed minority, many of them — the refugees from Turkey, Iraq, which had no right to Syrian nationality. At the current time, Damascus has made concessions — part of the Syrian Kurds have passports, others expect that soon they will be received.

Who supports the destabilization of Syria?

When only the unrest began in the Arab world — the actions in Tunisia and Egypt, almost all the experts believed that this wave is not Syria will be covered. The Assad regime was listed as one of the most stable of favorite and the Middle East. The opposition was almost inconspicuous. Its activation was likely only with strong support from the outside. So according to the Syrian authorities, groups of militants to attack the police, army, government institutions collect weapons and ammunition from abroad. Already in the process of "peaceful protests" killed hundreds of police and military. Besides militias skillfully use a strategy of action — impact, waste in populous neighborhoods, the army is responsible punitive actions Civilians die, discontent is growing. Cannon on the views of Damascus, is from Lebanon, Turkey and Jordan.

But the most difficult situation in the information field, where Damascus loses outright. The Western media, diplomats, politicians, and of aggressive media of Arab States, at least some conflict can inflate to a universal scale. After the outbreak of unrest in the Arab world were focused on Syria three satellite channels, their centers are deployed overseas and Damascus can not override them. Some local broadcasts from the United Arab Emirates, the second with the United Kingdom, the third, in the views of Damascus, the U.S. is working on the ground ("The People's Syria"). Representatives of the Syrian authorities themselves admit: "We are losing the information war." Cause great harm and using the web, although it is limited in Syria and. Syria has blocked access to Facebook, YouTube, Blogspot, also websites Kurdish and Islamist movements. According to the views of President Bashar al-Assad, it did so as Syrian people have not yet matured to the free web.

In the middle of the Syrian opposition sponsors — Israel has a vested interested in the fall of the Syrian regime. Damascus supports the Palestinian Authority, and of the problem of the Golan Heights is not solved. Also in the middle of the enemies of Syria — United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the U.S. and the EU. Motives at all different, but one goal — the elimination of the Assad regime. Thus, Ankara wants to permanently resolve the territorial dispute over the Aleksandrettskogo Sandzak, to prevent the creation of a new generation of Kurds (such as Iraqi Kurdistan), in a scenario of the collapse of Syria. For the U.S., the destruction of Syria — it's part of the plan of "modernization" of the whole Near East and the Islamic world.

If the Assad regime falls, the greatest benefit themselves derive constructive Islamists — and, at first, the movement of "Muslim Brotherhood." It is believed that as a result of successful regime change more likely scenario — it's seizure of power the moderate wing of the organization. With all of this is to see that the movement "Muslim Brotherhood" previously under the huge impact the Yankees, and some analysts believe that America and at the moment has not lost control of the organization. But an even worse scenario for the Christians, the Alawites of Syria, Israel will become takeover constructive wing of the "Muslim Brotherhood." There is also the prince's "Al-Qaeda" is also associated with Washington and London.

Also in Damascus fear the collapse of the country, and if Syria will be able to plunge in the civilian war, the disintegration of the country into several parts is very possible.

Will the Assad and the Syrian army resisting "the Libyan scenario?"

Bashar al-Assad, seem to have learned well the lessons of Tunisia and Egypt, and will not give up. Scenario fleeing the country and leaving in the "underground" is unlikely. Incomprehensible and expressions that once the Syrian army is much stronger than Libya, NATO did not get into Syria. Army of Iraq or Yugoslavia were also strong, but they were not bailed out.

In this regard, you need to consider several factors. West and its Middle Eastern allies, do not want to destroy the army of Syria, in military terms. Its pretty spread out, split, these processes are currently running. War — this is the final step, all-inclusive approach of the West. In Egypt and Tunisia could shift modes without war. As in the Soviet Union, other countries sotsbloka. There are important at first, not the number of guns and their performance characteristics, and will control the country and the command of the army. If there is a will, like Gaddafi, will be resisted. Therefore, if management refuses Resistance Army, the Assad regime will fall immediately.

Apparently, the management of the army, the Alawites, have decided to stand up to the stop. On the other, there is a great possibility of genocide, or at least severe discrimination. The Islamic radicals have threatened death to Assad, requires his execution. About this says that fact. That the law enforcement forces, the Army aggressive
ly suppress all the statements of the opposition forces.

Here we can see the traditional scenario:

— The army, police, intelligence agencies mess suppress the local "fifth column" chase militias.

— Information pressure on Syria is growing, even Iran and Our homeland claimed by Damascus reforms. Enter all the new sanctions. Assad and his entourage are converted to "rogue states." Here's the latest news on the subject: August 31, a human rights organization Amnesty International has announced a report on the deaths and torture of prisoners in the SAR. According to the material in March 2011, when Syria began mass opposition demonstrations in the country's bullpen has killed more than 88 people. According to human rights organizations earlier mortality in the middle of the prisoners in jail SAR does not exceed 5 persons a year.

According to the investigation of human rights Amnesty International, which had together with the relatives of the victims and are independent professionals in the bullpen Syrian prisoners were tortured. The bodies of the victims showed signs of beatings and lashes, many bodies had broken bones. The report notes that many of the dead skin burned with cigarettes on the body and face, was tortured with electricity. All the victims were detained for a role or on suspicion of involvement in the actions of the opposition. Dead in the middle of no ladies, but there are a few kids, the youngest of whom was 13 years old.

— On the terrain of Syria continues to leak military advisors, military instructors, of course, carry smuggled gun and ammunition. As a landmark event — the emergence of "snipers" who kill law enforcement officers forces, it is clear that the political opposition have nowhere to take a "professional shooters." In various parts of Syria, according to the Libyan scenario armed gang initiate a mess, violence and looting, try to make a bridgehead on the type of Benghazi. Army holds "anti-terrorist operation" in the process of dying and uncomplicated person, can be increased popular discontent.

— Enhanced job security services on top of a split in the Syrian — processed disloyal generals and bureaucrats, who for whatever reasons are unhappy B. Assad. It is clear that their "Vlasova," is everywhere, they were majestically Russian war in Iraq were there in Libya, and went out and brought in Syria. The main objective of the West — force at the right time to join the "people in revolt" of several figures with their supporters. It will be called "civil war."

— When in Syria kindle the flame of "civil war" may be a more active role of the special forces. And the Assad regime, its army branded as "war criminals", "enemies of the human race."

— If you do not topple Assad's forces will "rebel" and the actions of the "snipers" and other subversives, to be held "limited" military operation. Maybe in a UN Security Council resolution suitable dragged along. Or it may not be, the UN is already a fiction. NATO and the U.S. are already virtually a Hitler-style 30s. There are likely a variety of scenarios — the role of Israel, Turkey, or their indirect assistance.

In Assad's quite a little time left — soon Aviation and Maritime group, directed against Libya will be free. Syria's air defense against her will stand, a very large gap in developments in the military experience. And outside help will not. At the moment, not the time of the war in Korea or Vietnam, the Soviet Union is not, well, China is another. Today Russia and China will not go for a direct conflict as to their will not be made open attack.

After the suppression of air defense and air force bases Syria, the battle seems to enter Turkey, it will create a "demilitarized zone" in northern Syria, thinking himself the problem of Syrian Kurds. From the air, it will support the NATO aircraft, and of its air force available. Assistance will be strengthened, "the insurgent people" — the instructor, sabotage units, weapons, ammunition, constant attacks on Damascus …

Next question will be solely in how long Assad survive. For us, Iran and profitable, so how can he resist longer. Our homeland has in this period to strengthen the inner world, to strengthen the defense, find allies. Completely clear that after Syria and Iran, the country will be hit by the post-Soviet space, and we are.

Help. Armed Forces SAR. To control the Syrian armed forces, because of their history, have been the main value. The main enemy is Israel, so between the Golan and Damascus, the Syrian military have built three lines of defense. Tense affairs with Turkey, there is a territorial dispute with Turkey — Syria claims to 4,700 square meters. km in the district of Alexandretta. The conflict is over and the water — the Turks built in the upper reaches of the Euphrates water networks and water flow fell. On the territory of Syria's fighters are hiding in the Turkish state banned Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). The total strength of the armed forces — 300 thousand people. Base Sun — land forces, more than 200 thousand people, 3 cases (12 divisions — three mechanized divisions, seven armored divisions, Division 1 and Special Forces of the Republican Guard Division 1). Plus 13 separate brigades, 10 regiments of the Special Forces, 1 Separate Tank Regiment. In the armored division consists of two armored and one mechanized brigade. Guardsmen do gendarme functions, their main task, the protection of the palace of President, government agencies. Guard stationed in Damascus. In service with three missile brigades of the R-300 9K52 Luna-M, 9K79 «Point." The main drawback of ground troops and aircraft in general — obsolete weapons, so about half of the tank — this is the T-54, 55, 62, and of the T-72 did not reach the level of modern armored vehicles. Base other armored vehicles — outdated BTR — 40/50/60, BMP-1. But firepower impressive: up to 5 thousand tanks, about 5 thousand units of other armored vehicles, 450 self-propelled guns, MLRS — 500 units, up to 2 million units of towed howitzers and mortars, more than 2,500 anti-tank systems. The Air Force: about 800 aircraft, including education and transportation. Their weakness — rather weak pilot training, the number of errant aircraft 4th generation (including modernized Russian Mig-29). Defense is also obsolete: there is a close SAM acts 9K33 "Osa-AK" 9K31 "Strela-1", the 9K35 "Strela-10", mid-range — 9K37 "Buk", MANPADS and storage — Strela-3 9K38 "Igla" ZSU-23-4 "Shilka", ZU-23-2, etc. Among the new products: Russian SAM complexes close deeds "Armour-1C", they set 36 units. There is an order for eight battalions of air defense systems "Buk M2E". VSM: 2 small anti-submarine ships, minesweepers, 4, 3 medium amphibious ships, 10 missile boats, several patrol boats, submarines do not. The number of personnel of 7-8 thousand people. The most advanced tool of Syrian SCM — 2 divisions complex "Bastion" with RCC "Yakhont", they put Russia in 2010.

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