Society to discuss political analyst Andrei Fedorov and economist Leonid Zlotnikov.
The political reasons for the visit
Valery Karbalevich"Fever, in a formal sense, Lukashenko visits to Turkey and China against the background of the conflict with Russia are in a sense the function of propaganda compensation. Belarusians are a little scared that relations with Moscow deteriorate. It is no coincidence people ran to the banks withdraw rubles. Lukashenko will fall if the visit to calm the population, show that there is no international isolation, have someone to be friends? "
Andrei Fedorov"Do not think that these visits are feverish, they were getting ready. The visit to China had a good reason. October 11 was the day of Belarus at the World Exhibition in Shanghai.
I think that in a visit to China dominates the economic component, not PR. After all, people are well aware that relations with China have been successfully developed. So visit there is unlikely to give Lukashenko new votes. There is no doubt that Beijing will not make any claims about the results of the Belarusian elections, since the question of democracy China is not interested. But problems arise with the economy after the election badly. "
Leonid Zlotnikov"This visit is made at the peak of Russia. Like, the world does not end on Moscow. Belarus needs a strategic partner you need to rely on, which will help in the international organizations. But, really, the main thing — it's the economy. "
Comparing China and Russia?
Karbalevich"Can China replace Belarus Russia in all spheres: economic, geopolitical, military? Here today "Sovetskaya Belorussia" writes: "Investment cooperation with the world economy, which is developing dynamically, giving us a chance to rapid modernization of its own economy and, ultimately, to achieve true independence." Is this true?
Fedorov"No, can not replace China Russia. If you take the mutual trade, its volume with Russia we have a 15 times greater than with China. Last year the Belarusian-Chinese trade amounted to 1.3 billion dollars, and Belarus has a large deficit. This year the trade turnover increased by 60%.
There is good cooperation in the military-industrial complex. But if there is a military threat to Belarus, then surely China will rush to defend us? "
Zlotnikau"Russia has helped us to hidden subsidies in the amount of $ 6.5 billion, if you take the last six years. These subsidies are not imposed on the Belarusian leadership specific duties. Also Russia is in first place in foreign direct investment in the economy of Belarus.
But the Chinese money — it's not direct investments, and loans that must be repaid with interest. Direct Chinese investment — about 8-10 million dollars a year. In addition, China — a strong competitor for the Belarusian industry. "
What are the economic results of the visit?
Karbalevich"At the end of Lukashenka's visit to China signed the documents on the implementation of economic projects in Belarus, in the amount of $ 3.5 billion. Among them — the 3 credit agreements, commercial contracts, 8, 2 framework agreements. How can we evaluate the economic results of the visit? "
Fedorov"Chinese loans — related. This means that for the money we need to purchase Chinese equipment. And it is not the most advanced in the world. So we can keep up technologically. Thus some benefits of Belarus may receive, but it is not a panacea. "
Zlotnikau"There are pros and cons. The good news is that the loans are given for specific projects and can not be praestsi, as was done with loans from other sources.
But China is not exactly the most developed country in the world. For example, China will upgrade Lukolm and Bereza power plant. Ale combined-cycle plants will supply the German company "Siemens". And why do we need the Chinese intermediary in relations with the German company? But perhaps no one else, so we invite the Chinese. The return on these loans would be only a few years. A severe financial problems the country needs to be addressed now. "
Fedorov"In fact, the visits to Turkey, China, the planned visit of Lukashenka in Iran do not solve these problems."
Zlotnikau"For these projects have the effect, you need to upgrade the whole economy, to move to a market economy."