Members: chief editor of the newspaper "Nasha Niva" Andrew Dynko and editor of the online newspaper "we" Cyril Pozniak.
Why starred Gajdukevich?
Valery Karbalevich"Failure Haidukevich from the elections was unexpected. He assembled the largest initiative group, more than 10 thousand people, which, according to him, has collected 100 thousand signatures. And left, saying that the election — a performance. First question: Gajdukevich starred himself of any reasons or forced?
Andrew Dynko"This year we have a new show. And in this new play for Haidukevich no role. He felt it, and so acted. "
Cyril Pozniak"It seems that the view of Haidukevich as unambiguous sparring partner Lukashenko established because we have some criteria vtryravanyya opposition. They are polarized. As soon as one moves away from radicalism, plays in systemic opposition, he declared the project of the presidential administration.
All the years, been building scheme Gajdukevich moderate positioning. And it suited the authorities and Haidukevich. Perhaps among them were some agreements. Friends LDP had certain positions in government, business.
In addition, the LDP has partnered with the Russian Liberal Democratic Party. LDPR leader Zhirinovsky now sharply criticizes Lukashenko.
Recently, the trend akreslilasya radicalizing Haidukevich. He did not become member of the House of Representatives in the 2008 election. Was the trial of his deputy Karunas. Since then began to tolerate criticism Gajdukevich Lukashenko and lead a relatively independent game, or — in agreement with the Liberal Democratic Party. "
Gajdukevich authorities and the script
Karbalevich"The experts are unanimous in saying that it's managed. I recall that back in 2008 the same way Gajdukevich descended from the election campaign to the House of Representatives. Then, the experts also concluded that the authorities have explained to him, this time he did not have a chance to get into the House of Representatives. Why Gajdukevich this time does not fit into the script of the authorities? "
Dynko"The authorities have now a new script. Its meaning is to recognize democratic elections. Look, do not scatter the pickets, no arrests for political reasons during the campaign. Gajdukevich saw that the role of sparring partner is now needed. And he did not find resources for this company. "
Karbalevich"He collected the initiative group of 10 thousand people and it does not find resources?"
Dynko"Did you see those 10 thousand? There were people with Arab names, even one member of the CEC. This means that no one knows who created the lists and the left foot.
It does not matter, he starred or someone took it off the hook. Indeed, in the case of participation it would be delayed votes from Lukashenko.
Pozniak"It seems Gajdukevich starred himself. He maneuvered between the contacts with the Belarusian authorities and contacts with the Liberal Democratic Party, perhaps — with contacts in Moscow at a higher level. He held the niche of the pro-Russian candidate.
If we assume that he was forced out of power, it is only on the basis of the script superliberalnyh elections. In such a scenario sparnyg partner is not necessary, because the opposition candidates are not going to withdraw from the election. "
Karbalevich"There is a theory that the authorities have not forgiven Haidukevich that he put together a great initiative group than Lukashenko. It's the audacity — to push forward Batko.
Here, the Pozniak expressed the theory that Gajdukevich performed with pro-Russian statements, promised to recognize the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. And in a highly political war with the Russian authorities have decided not to take the risk?
Dynko"Indeed, Gajdukevich traveled to Abkhazia, spoke of the need to introduce the Russian ruble. But the important thing here is that the elections are a new scenario. It will not be a repetition of elections in 2001 and 2006. "
Pozniak"The Russian factor in this election is very important. Was a competition between the opposition candidates who are more pro-Russian. But now more important than who benefit elections without Haidukevich. They are beneficial to the authorities. "
Who will act as a sparring partner Lukashenko?
Karbalevich"During the previous election campaigns observers noticed a phenomenon no one saw the initiative group Haidukevich collecting signatures, but in the end he always handed over 100 thousand signatures and registered as a presidential candidate Experts said that Gajdukevich need to Lukashenko not left alone during the call, in case the opposition candidates refuse to participate in the elections. So the question is: who will now serve as a sparring partner Lukashenko end of the campaign? "
"If you look at these elections in Belarus, it is possible to recall the experience of Moldova. Communist Voronin came to power on a pro-Soviet, pro-Russian rhetoric, promised to restore economic ties with Russia, to enter the Russian language as the second official. However, he refused to act on the Russian scenario in Transnistria issue, so spoiled relations with Moscow. And before the election in 2005 after the "Orange Revolution" in Ukraine, he came into conflict with Russia. Moscow has banned the sale of Moldovan goods to Russia. And then Voronin won the election. A pro-Russian opposition in the form of "Our Moldova" lost the election. West recognized partially free elections. After all, in addition to control over state media Voronin, all other aspects of the election had been free. And after the election of the parliament elected president Voronin voices of the Christian Democrats and the Communists, who supported Voronin as a defender of independence.
Something similar is happening in Belarus. The West and Russia are reversed. Now the West to recognize the election, they have to be partly free. "
Karbalevich"There are some differences from the Moldovan elections. A lot of the pro-Russian opposition. Election commissions are created with little or no opposition. Lukashenko does not make any gestures towards the West. "
Pozniak"There are three possible scenarios. First, imitation superliberalnyh elections. A sparring partner Gajdukevich Lukashenko — a sign of democratic elections.
The second scenario: the replacement of a sparring partner. Or for someone else, or sparring partner will perform one or more candidates of the opposition.
Third embodiment. Gajdukevich starred on the team of the Krem
lin to vote did not take away from the main pro-Russian candidate. "
Dynko"Gajdukevich — the man with the Belarusian system. From the Kremlin, he has a relationship only in words. "