Members: the Institute of Political Studies "Political Sphere" Sergei Bogdan and the journalist of the newspaper "The Belarusians and Market" Tatiana Manyanok.
The economic foundation of bilateral relations
Valery Karbalevich"In the beginning of the Belarusian-Venezuelan friendship experts regarded it not too seriously. They said that the anti-American rhetoric can not build anything. The project is called the supply of Venezuelan oil is not a PR action, political fig Moscow.
But after Chavez's visit to Minsk, promises to deliver 30 million tons of oil in three years, I think, the attitude to the Belarusian-Venezuelan cooperation has to change. 10 million tons a year — half of all the oil that can be processed Belarusian refineries. Apparently, in the seriousness of this project and believe the neighbors. I mean, first of all by the President of Ukraine Yanukovych's readiness to ensure the transit of Venezuelan oil through Ukrainian territory. So based on what friendship between Belarus and Venezuela? It is brought under a strong economic foundation? "
Sergei Bogdan"This cooperation is based on mutual interests, not the anti-American rhetoric or ideology. The interest in Belarus says a lot.
A benefit of Venezuela can be stated in three points. First, Venezuela, Belarus helps to modernize the country. Secondly, Belarus helps boost the defense of Venezuela.
Third, Venesuela gets diversification of its oil. Access to the European market — a strategic goal for Caracas. After all, the oil market is very tough divided, enter new markets is difficult. After all, in the foreign trade of Venezuela strongly dominates the North American market.
Such complex projects in terms of performance are made possible because in both countries (Belarus and Venezuela), there is a strong authoritarian government. For example, in Iran, there is no strict administrative power, so Iranian oil to Belarus does not go. "
Tatiana Manyanok"The economic impact on the supply of Venezuelan oil is not yet understood. Refineries are paid only for the services for the processing. Effect of Belarus may be provided only if Venesuela supplies us with oil at preferential terms. But if the oil itself, and is cheap, then the greater the cost of transit. According to my information, this effect is on the verge of profitability.
The priority should be to modernize our refineries, bringing them up to European standards. Here's Mazeikiu refinery in Lithuania, owned by Polish company buys crude oil on the stock exchange. If it was profitable to buy Venezuelan oil, he would have done it. So talking about the success of diversification of oil supply us too early. "
Or cheaper than the Russian, Venezuelan oil?
Karbalevich"How much is Venezuelan oil? Or is it less expensive for the Russian? At this point, there are many different and conflicting information. Or the price then do not matter, since the actions of the political price?
Or is she acting barter scheme, which was used by Belarus for buying oil and gas in Russia in the 1990s? That is, for the oil and gas paid by persons on arbitrary prices. "
Bogdan"The price of Venezuelan oil can not be reduced to a monetary measure. Russia is using oil to political pressure. What we need is a competitor of the Russian monopoly.
Oil — this is no ordinary commodity and specific. Do not you bring it just like that. For its transit infrastructure needs. Therefore, the price on the stock exchange and the price of delivery to the place — it's a big difference. Because transit may cost more than just the oil itself. Therefore, the concept of "world price" does not matter much.
In addition, the oil — a political commodity, strong arms. So deal with the oil never transparent. It is said that Lukashenko with Chavez about something secretly agreed. And who knows what kind of agreement in the United States and Saudi Arabia? Held the first, small amounts of supplies. It is likely that if the volume increase, the price will decrease.
Is it far to carry Venezuelan oil to Belarus? But the U.S. also carry oil from the Persian Gulf. The main problem — no oil transportation by tankers across the ocean, but the fact that Belarus has no outlet to the sea. "
Karbalevich"Oh ekzatychnasts project say because there is oil there, and Belarus carries out far Venezuela."
Bogdan"The United States also has oil in Alaska, the Gulf of Mexico. However, they buy oil from the Persian Gulf. "
Manyanok"So, barter, payment in the case of Venezuelan oil. Lukashenko during a press conference for Russian journalists say that we pay this oil services, construction and so on.
Russia does not refuse to supply us oil at a volume that allows you to fully utilize our refineries. Moreover, given the duty, then the exchange price minus shipping costs. According to the official Belarusian statistics, in May, the price of Russian oil was $ 200 less than the price of Venezuelan oil. But the processing of Russian oil supplied with the fees, no economic effect.
If indeed Venesuela will supply 10 million tons of oil per year, the country will be able even to export its own oil. But the problem is that if the shoulder transportation of petroleum products in excess of 600 km., The economic effect will be. Economy is impossible to cheat. "