President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko signed into law the Belarusian budget for 2011. It provides for a significant increase in social spending. But can we call it real?
According to the Ministry of Finance, expenditure on education, health and social policy to increase by 40%. Authorities promise to increase wages in the public sector by 35% compared to the current year. Will also increase social benefits. A grant will help avoid a significant increase in tariffs for housing and communal services and transport. Increase support for housing and social assistance. Commenting on such an optimistic outlook, a former Chairman of the National Bank of Belarus Stanislav Bogdanovich noted that the "budget is based on the fact that Lukashenko wants to continue to continue to rule." He talks about nesureznasts approaches in his statement:
"This is a budget for the purchase of votes. Budget so stagnant. And the reforms were not provided. Any reforms include temporary stabilization or even reduction in GDP growth. This provides an increase of 10% and an increase in social payments by 35% or even more. Necessary at all costs cut. could be to raise wages by reducing the number of bureaucrats, officials, by reducing the power structures. Here you can comment, like last year. Last year, only there was no such increase in wages. All this seems serious. I think on paper is always all you can do. "
For the planned spending growth to ensure the growth of gross domestic product. And he This year, compared with the previous crisis year of less than 7%. It is possible that the government will again seek new loans or start selling off state assets. In the budgeted about $ 2 billion of external debt. But, according to Bahdankevich, the country needs at least $ 7 billion.
The budget, though signed, but still do not know what the price of gas for Belarus next year. Chairman of the Budget Committee of the House of Representatives Alexander Antonenko noted that "should not be too pessimistic view of life":
"As the price of gas has conducted negotiations. Various price yet, but negotiations have not yet been completed. When to refer to the Russian sources, it is about 220 dollars. Price was exemplary, according to the contract. This must talk with the Minister of Finance. Gas is gas, but There are other options. "
Head of the Department of Business and Management BSU Georgy Grits notes that the adopted budget — that's including the factor of the election campaign.
"Nine months this year indicate that our traditional markets, which have grown today are having problems. Including the European Union. We fall in exports is comparable to last year. But this objective reasons. "
According to the Grits than social costs, provided the costs of innovative programs. Accepted programs are good, but there is money in the country to implement them?
"Another thing — there is the money, and if the money is limited, you need to choose priorities. Priorities While more than there is resources. On All money is not enough."
Economist Dmitry Kruk Notes that the budget "relatively feasible and relatively reflects reality, as laid fairly large deficit in 6 trillion rubles."
"That is to say, the Ministry of Finance recognizes that next year there will be some difficulties with the implementation and this is certainly reflected in social spending. Expenditure on education, a number of other social areas increased. Rather, it is recognition of the long-term challenges for the Belarusian education system primarily for the health system. To develop them, we need to increase budget spending. But at the same time in this case have to deal with deficits. Due to what it will be compensated? "
Mr Crook said that the authorities have the hope of external financing. Moreover, most likely, will be raised tariffs for housing and communal services.