Chance of a war between Russia and China? Interview

One of the "fear", which took over in recent years, the minds of men of — it's an invasion of Chinese. The realization of the fact that in the provinces of China for the Russian-Chinese border live 10's of millions of Chinese, while we have in the region of a few million people, does not add conviction. In addition, if the period of Russian border with China was a powerful band of fortifications, backed by a strong shock group of forces, in the current time we can say that the border is almost "naked." Although in the field of politics, diplomacy, and Beijing does not show such a brutal rhetoric, as, for example, Tokyo. Disputed land is not asking. One of the most recognized supporters of the theory of "China threat" in the middle is a military analyst Alexander Hramchihin.

The arguments for the possibility of war

— Vserasprostraneno among ordinary people, that very many Chinese as "cockroaches" and because at some point they do not have enough land, water, and they will begin to capture the adjacent land. In other words, this is the demographic factor.

— The historical concept of China: Far East on it — this is the root of Chinese land, which at one time was occupied by Russia. Moreover, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, China has expanded its area by the Russian Federation, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan. And the appetite comes with eating. Because in the subsequent processes of weakening the post-Soviet republics are likely new claims.

— After 1991, the Russian armed forces heavily degraded, having suffered the loss of both the number of different combat units (from armor to ballistic missiles, strategic focus), and as training, morale (the lack of a unifying ideology). China, by contrast two decades has made a magnificent breakthrough in the field of military construction, almost all through the acquisition of Russian military technology.

— There is a world view, it, for example, expressed his publicist Maxim Kalashnikov, in the case of a Chinese invasion in Moscow simply does not have the strength of will and spirit to wreak warning strike on China. She just hand over all the land up to the Urals, maybe it will even be a contract of "Rent" and Beijing will "paying off."

— In the military nuance to the current time China beyond our strength in the east (if not to take into account the nuclear component) in all ways — number of personnel, number of parts, armored vehicles, artillery pieces, and aviation. Chinese aircraft rather cut Trans-Siberian Railway to cover virtually the only way to deliver reserves, as transport aircraft can not carry out this puzzle. Also need to take into account the factor of availability of the great masses of the Chinese people in the Urals — the midst of them can just throw the advance reconnaissance and sabotage groups that hour "X" will inflict own beat.

— Danger frisky growth of China and its future growth is likely only when saving expansion, while it only financial and covers almost the whole planetoid (Russia, Mongolia, Central Asia, Southeast Asia, the countries of the Islamic world, Africa, Latin America, seeping into Europe) . But there is a possibility of the economic expansion of the military. In particular, if the global financial and economic crisis will lead to a complete imbalance of forces on the planet. Then China will be obliged, for their own survival, to capture a number of regions of the planet, including the Far East.

— Northward more favorable for the expansion, since the least populated, richer in natural resources. In the south of the country with countless strong population, and of the resource there is not so rich.

— Beijing has a significant imbalance in the population — an overabundance of young guys, because of the policy of "one-child" because many families are trying to save the family, to have an abortion after learning that will devchenka. Because, in the case of war, the Chinese elite can simply donate a significant contingent.

Arguments "against"

China in fact, no shortage of land, it is one of the largest countries of the planet, which has huge reserves for land development without external expansion. The bulk of the population is concentrated in the more suitable for the life of the Maritimes. In recent years, Beijing is trying to disperse the more moderate population for that conducts large-scale resettlement programs from, irrigation programs from — to transfer water from the supply of water in a dry southern regions, developing agriculture, building a new mega-cities. That there is strongly equips previously relatively deserted province. In addition, Beijing managed to curb the uncontrolled growth of the population.

— The historical factor: China and our homeland did not conduct full-scale wars between themselves. All conflicts were insignificant, the main border nature. In other words, China was never a threat to us as a nation in the Western world or the Empire of Japan.

— There is a perception that the United States and the West in general, it would be profitable to push Russia and China, having an operation to type the first or the second world war, when it was possible to push Russia and Germany, which generally had no insoluble important fundamental contradictions. Therefore through a number of media, non-governmental organizations are forming an "enemy image" — China, in the same line of Muslims. West needs Russian Federation conflict with the Chinese and Muslims. Let's lay that Beijing and Moscow will not peck at such a provocation.

— China is advantageous measured "rear" — the strategic direction of the north (Our Fatherland, Mongolia, Kazakhstan), because he does not need to re-start "buzu" spoil things with these states. He and so the perimeter of the eastern, southern, western borders or historical enemies or potential enemies, or the country where stability can be compromised and China will get a migraine. Because he must first solve the problem of Taiwan, to build a defensive orders in the maritime zone, protecting your important economically developed coastal provinces. Well, in the event of a conflict with the United States may be the reason the problem of Taiwan, South American Navy could be drawn into the sea routes through which go to China resources: oil from Saudi Arabia and Iran, Nigeria and Angola, and liquefied natural gas — from Iran and Australia. Because profitably maintain peace with Kazakhstan as a spare oil supplier, with Turkmenistan — as another supplier of natural gas, also with the Russian Federation.

— What is China's war, if all the necessary resources and so she gets up without a fight. Our home helps in solving prepyadstviya hydrocarbon supplies timber and other resources. In Russia, get a job and thousands of thousands of Chinese, removing this part of the social unrest in China.

— So far, Russia has a nuclear arsenal, war is impossible, it would be a disaster of global significance.

— No diplomatic claims, although among the Chinese and strolling the view that Far East — is historically Chinese territory, but the obvious claims of what makes Japan, no.

— Even the basic demographic expansion focused not in Russia, but in a more suitable life-Africa, Asia-Pacific and the West. Thus, the West focused study at universities and thousands of thousands of young people, a significant number of which a degree, and there remained. In addition, a significant part of the Chinese people in Russia do not live on the same basis, and the "shifts".

— The ideology of China (Taoism, Buddhism, Confucianism) is much more measured, balanced than the western, that is aggressive, parasitic on its own essence. T
he Chinese, faster, creators, immersed in their own inner world than the invaders and destroyers. This can be noted in the same Africa — the Chinese are not only willing to obtain the resources of the West as, and to invest in developing countries in Africa, the development of human capital in the whole building up, not destroying, as Westerners. Because whether war, almost everything is dependent on Russia itself, if it will collapse and fall into another confusion. Then of course Beijing will be obliged to respond to the occupation of the border areas, ensuring their survival in this world.

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