Likely if a new round of Transnistrian conflict?

More than 20 years Dnestr Moldavian Republic has an independent status. But during this time acquired real independence has not been as truly breakthrough integration agreements concerning the status of Transnistria, has not been achieved. Transnistria is now an area that is required to survive in the literal sense, between a rock and a hard place. On the one hand — this is the desire of the Transnistrian people get real independence from Moldova, and on the other — the desire of the Moldovan authorities did not just throw the TMR under his wing, and together with that of the Republic to join euroallied Romania, which, in the views of certain forces in Moldova capital, will be the method of solving all the political and economic problems. These two diametrically reverse position is left unrecognized republic of Transdniestria status, which must try to look for leverage itself in order to stay afloat.

It is necessary to establish the fact that the search for such instruments has been underway for more than a year, but the really important results obtained so far have failed. Once known Transnistrian conflict nations authorities made 2-republics frankly strangers each other. The unresolved issue of the status of the TMR so far is a major stumbling block in matters of official business Tiraspol and Chisinau. Series of mutual recriminations given to understand that, to date the shift in motion bilateral relations far. But the story goes that the finding of the republics in the state of the regional "cold war" never fails to lead to well-being in any, or in the other. So it was in nedavneshney stories related to the former Georgian republics — South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which neither of committees have not been able to bring the parties to good neighborly relations, defining the status of the republics. Now a similar situation manifests itself with regard to Transnistria. And if the situation is similar, it turns out that the result of interaction between Moldova and Transnistria can only depend on who is at the head of the territorial entities. It is necessary only in the same Chisinau come to power political force that would meet its available forces and means of bridging the "constitutional order" as it tried to reverse the 4-year sovereign Saakashvili, as a new round of conflict can make the problem of bed in an old military conflict. In this situation has to be very difficult to predict than that conflict may end …

Now neither the Moldovan or Transnistrian authorities are not going to open the aggravation. For this you can and Chisinau and Tiraspol to applaud. But the applause will obviously rare and rapidly decaying, and because no real steps toward each other, these same authorities do not. And if they do, it will still be traced in the main activity of the Transnistrian favorite Yevgeny Shevchuk. With all of this activity is often accompanied by the president of TMR criticism of those who behold the attempts to go to the political and economic contacts with Chisinau peculiar weakness of the current head of the Transnistrian Moldovan Republic and even samples "surrender" Transnistria pro-Romanian political forces in Moldova. Such criticism was heard after Yevgeny Shevchuk decided to go on a one-sided concessions, citing the fact that Chisinau with the passage of time, too, will go to the political and economic contacts with Tiraspol.

Concessions Yevgeny Shevchuk is to follow:

cancellation of 100% of the protective duties for Moldovan products;

permission to broadcast the channels on the Moldovan countryside PMR (as we know, the information that is held by the Moldovan channels obviously does not emit Transnistria as a subject of international law, and therefore PMR on behalf of Moldovan workers TV is part of a unified Moldova);

proposed to solve the problem with the so-referred to as "the Romanian schools": maybe half a dozen of those schools that are in the TMR called Romanian origin, who work under the auspices of Chisinau, in the near future will go to the Latin alphabet chart when writing the words of the Moldovan language. Here it should be noted that Moldova in 1989, decided to use the Latin alphabet in their own language, although a 2-centuries used when writing the Cyrillic alphabet. Shevchuk proposes to make a lightweight registration Romanian schools in the area of TMR;

the introduction of the Transnistrian railway network of the railways of Moldova.

There are also regular legislative project which many in Transnistria and beyond perceived as very weird. This project is to cancel the limitation periods for criminals. Controversy is not something that the law enforcement system PMR may extend the time search for the killer or embezzlers, and the fact that there are words in the bill to abolish the statute of limitations for crimes committed against peace and humanity. The fact is that such a law in Transnistria under pressure Chisinau (unless, of course, Tiraspol will come up on the one-sided concessions) can be opened criminal cases against those who participated in the same Transnistrian armed conflict in 1992. If all this is not entirely clear if the DMR are going to judge the Moldovan war criminals, the authorities must be aware of those that Chisinau is obviously not going to abide by the laws of the Tiraspol … If the law is focused on advancing its own people involved at the time in fighting against the Chisinau then it becomes unclear for what purpose all this is done, because the condemnation of those people who defended the right of the TMR for existence — measures that will obviously not be supported by the overwhelming majority of Transdniestrians. Hunt to impose that the Transnistrian authorities to this effect has obmyslennoe and useful for the people of the Republic of decision aimed at stabilizing the region.

But all of these one-sided concessions to Tiraspol, which seems to have been lead to retaliatory concessions from the Moldovan authorities have so far remained lopsided. Not enough of Kishinev in every way the West is trying to focus attention on the need to address the "Transnistrian problem" on their own criteria. Moldova is not going to reciprocate the DMR, which practically gave realize that they are ready for a very productive dialogue: Moldova economists have done everything to protect the banks of Transnistria from contact with the world banking system (a variant of the economic blockade) Moldovan railway transport workers cleaned up the system to its PMR hands without mating preferences, the Transnistrian goods can now be fined as contraband …

But if you are not going to give Moldova Transnistria, then what are the plans may bear Kishinev in the minds of their own major political figures. Based on the standard of the Georgian scenario in 2008, you can read that and Chisinau would not mind to go to "restore constitutional order", but provided that it is supported by the West, not only in terms of disinformation, as was the case with official Tbilisi and even the military. Then, of course, has a head start in Chisinau, which is called the Ukrainian territory. The fact is that even if incurred by the desire to assist the Russian Federation to defend the independence of Transnistria, not being able to do this just in time, as was the case with South Ossetia, as the Russian Federation has no border with any PMR or with Moldova … It turns out that if Chisinau and dare to anger, the salvation of the Transnistrian people will only be in the hands of the Transnistrian people. Naturally, there are options for amphibious operations, but at a distance from the Russian Federation's mission will be difficult doable.

Of course, the reader can safely blame the creator of the fact that he his milit
ary probable scenario of a new conflict on the Dniester, trying to sow the seeds of ethnic hatred. In fact, the issue is not addressed in order to sow discord between the Moldovan and Transnistrian citizens, and to remind that the armed conflict obviously not lead to stabilization of the region.
First, in August 2008 the first who could not quite imagine near Tbilisi anger against Tskhinvali. But the emperor Saakashvili decided to go the method, which we all know very well. Specifically, this fact gives food for thought as to what and Moldova all can only depend on the degree of closeness of its management of the new standards of the West, and how the authorities of this country is able to manifest Bonapartism a'la Saakashvili. And that, and Transnistria, and Russia did not have to be in a stalemate, when will solve the problem of regional completely different force, carrying the banner of "democracy", it is necessary to be ready for the nastiest scenarios.

One-sided concessions — it is perfectly natural, but all the same it is necessary and by opponents to seek retaliatory steps, otherwise Transnistria Our homeland will assist no longer able to …

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