Moscow's initiative could cost Minsk over $ 3 billion

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Russia's Finance Ministry proposes to abolish duty on crude oil to Belarus, but in exchange pick up all of the Belarusian budget revenues from the export of oil products. At the same time Russia is expected to increase export duties on oil products to 80-90% of the oil, not to subsidize oil refineries in Belarus. What will the following solution Belarus oil dispute?

Prime Minister of Russia Vladimir Putin promised to abolish duty on Russian oil supplied to Belarus. But it will happen after the ratification of the Minsk package of agreements on the establishment of a single economic space. Then, after the meeting of the Council of Ministers of the Union State in Moscow, the deputy head of the Russian Ministry of Finance Sergei Shatalov noted that this cancellation is only possible with compensation for losses of the Russian budget. Now Sergei Shatalov announced a version of this compensation: the expense of all revenue from the sale of oil products in Belarus. Is this a continuation of pressure on Belarus from Russia?

According to the economist Leonid Zlotnikov, from 1995 there was a Belarusian-Russian agreement, according to which Belarus has to return the Russian duty on oil products produced from Russian oil:

"Then they suggested that we returned it 85% of the fee on petroleum products that come from Belarus to the West. Belarus did not fulfill the agreement for almost 10 years. So she was taking in its budget that they have agreed to send to the Russian budget. And if Russia now calculate how much to Belarus for non-compliance of the agreement, it will be a very large sum. Belarus to answer and will not cover anything. This is Russia's budget takes the resource rents. This is her wealth. And this wealth of Russia does not want to give away just like that. "

If Russia implements such a scenario, what can be expected of Belarus? Leonid Zlotnikov noted that Belarus is unprofitable because of the many inefficient economy:

"And if the prices of the world market consumes gas and oil Poland, Belarus, the economy, at such prices can not exist. Her nothing will."

The Economic Observer newspaper "Belarusians and Market" Tatiana Manyanok noted that Belarus processes not only Russian, but also Venezuelan and Belarusian oil:

"In any case, will have to somehow find a mechanism for sharing revenues from exports of oil products. We come to a mechanism that already existed in Belarus. On the other hand, they wanted, that can and do. After all, if the duty is canceled for Russian companies supplying oil to the commission terms, it is an attractive Belarusian refineries. Headache how to download Belarusian refineries, disappears. On the other hand, the rhetorical question: what to do with Venezuelan oil? "

At the same time, Russia will offer to move to another principle of formation of duties on petroleum products. Now it is on average about 50% of the oil duty. The Russian side believes that such subsidized Belarusian refineries. It is therefore intended to increase the Russian export duty on oil products to 80-90% of oil:

"For the Russian economy is really beneficial, because the main export to Russia — oil, rather than petroleum products. Belarus — on the contrary. Avoiding conflict of interests of the parties? Belarusian side will seriously weigh the pros and cons of such a proposal."

Exports of oil products — one of the most important sources of foreign exchange earnings for the Belarusian economy. It will lose the initiative of Russia's new oil? The head of the analytical center "Strategy" Leonid Zaika sees these Russian proposals "a game of cat and mouse." He believes that in this situation, the official Minsk has to negotiate with Russia to create a consortium for joint production, production and sale of crude oil and petroleum products:

"And then will not lose anything. Belarus loses And that was free. Belarus on oil, the export mytse earned almost $ 3.5 billion. She does not lose anything, but just did not get the grant. Moral position of Belarus in If false. We should not claim to part of the price of Russian oil. "

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