In anticipation of the latest big fight for the future of the planet when making an application for the creation of new alliances of states (for example, Zbigniew Brzezinski sounded the information about the "Atlantic Alliance", and Vladimir Putin of "Eurasian Union"), attached an old blocks are regrouping of forces to move brains than all threaten Russia. Moscow could counter the rapidly changing foreign policy situation? Reflect on those who hate and who can be an ally or even a friend.
Here is the relevant piece of news that says about the future. South American President Barack Obama and Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard signed an agreement to increase the U.S. military presence in Australia with the current 200 thousand to 2.5 thousand bayonets for 6 years with a view to the creation of the group frisky response, which will be able to react to danger in the south-east Asia. The grouping will be located in the town of Darwin — is 820 km from Indonesia and around the South China Sea, that is, about the region, where there are often different kinds of disputes (for example, the territorial dispute over the Paracel Islands and Spratly archipelago). On the basis of the bombers also will position B52, fighter F/A-18, as military transports and C17 aircraft tankers.
Already in 2012, the United States is to increment its forces in Australia more than doubled. Deputy assistant to the U.S. president's national security Ben Rhodes said that the contract "is completely timely." Earlier it was reported that the Pentagon has developed the latest military concept against China, which is in the spirit of the "cold war." It relies on the Washington Navy, including the Marine Corps, the development of anti-satellite weapons, cyber technologies, nuclear submarines, new aircraft (including the creation of a new low-profile strategic bombers, who will be able to strike at the most remote regions of China). The strategy does not preclude the ability of local operations on the territory of China.
In addition, Australia in recent years has also rapidly increasing military budget, adopted a large-scale rearmament programs from the armed forces, the emphasis is on the development of the Navy, Air Force and Air Force frisky response.
The official dealer of the Chinese Foreign Ministry Liu Weimin made the statement that the US-Australian agreement is not in the interests of the Asia-Pacific Region (APR). According to the views of the Chinese diplomat, Beijing in the midst of the global financial crisis is for peaceful development and cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region, because other states should build its policy in the region on the same principles.
Chinese political scientist Su Hao, who is director of the Asia-Pacific Research Center, and foreign relations, said that the move of the United States is made in order to strengthen their own military sample interaction with the states of the region, first with Australia and Japan, "with the clear intention to counterbalance China" .
At present, the U.S. virtually revived the ANZUS (born ANZUS Security Treaty — Australia, New Zealand, United States), a military alliance of Australia, of New Zealand and the United States the "Cold War." On the basis of this contract Bimbo Zealand and Australia took part in the war against Iraq in 1991, in the peacekeeping operation in East Timor in 1999-2002, in the Afghan campaign, and in the second war against Iraq.
Our homeland and the former Soviet republics
Although all of the republics of the former Union to this day are in the "Russian Field", that is significant (or most) of their populations bred in Russia (Russian) culture, they say, and think in Russian, but their attitude to the Russian Federation can not name the specific .
One can say with a little bit of belief that their future with Russia only Belarus and Kazakhstan (And only as a "sovereign of the" future "Eurasian Union"). Moreover, not all is smooth in relations with these countries — Alexander Lukashenko often balk, then flirts with the European Union, then with China. In Kazakhstan, the Kazakh nationalism is gaining ground, the streets and villages renamed, then with the Russian language of desire to end. While these processes are constrained Nazarbayev, but it will not last forever. Hope is a global crisis that will force the Belarusian and Kazakh elite to make the right choice. It may be that the generally positive responses Lukashenko and Nazarbayev's article about Putin's "Eurasian Union" this is the answer.
Besides, Belarus and Kazakhstan have a presupposition focus on Moscow. In Minsk nasty business with the West (U.S. and EU), it is written in the Terai offer and tried in an international court. Congressman Christopher Smith, chairman of the U.S. Helsinki Commission, at a hearing on the case of Belarus, the Commission made a statement that says the administration of the South American president about the need to reach accusations against Alexander Lukashenko in the Hague International Criminal Court. A Belarusian KGB, he swore "perversion." Although this is not the Belarusian secret services ustaivayte hidden bullpen worldwide and tortured there, "Islamic terrorists."
Astana threatening or Islamization or Sinification. Both perspectives Kazakhs left unaffected. A special friendship with the West makes no sense. All beheld, as was done with the favorites, who tried to establish "constructive" deal with the U.S., rather recall the fate of Saddam Hussein. West at least some moment can change one doll ("friend and partner") to the other. Become an independent power center in Astana fails, there is no human resources nor the vast scientific and technological capacity, or military capabilities. Only be a source of raw materials and the periphery of China, or the domain of Islamic radicals, no desire. Calculated and the factor that between Kazakhstan and Russia — 7 thousand km of the border, where there is no serious natural obstacles (rivers, mountains, seas, lakes), which are needed for upgrading a lot of money and resources. If Moscow Kazakhs cast adrift, we can get on that border China or groups of Islamic radicals (plus NATO base).
For the republics of the Russian Federation, and in particular Snow White Rus (indigenous Russian land) are very important, they can not give way under any circumstances.
Russia also guided several unrecognized international community of states — Dnestr Moldavian Republic, the Republic of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Without the support of these areas of Moscow is waiting for a sad fate: in Transnistria — Romanization (in the long term, taking into account Romania's eagerness to join Moldavia) and the Abkhazians and Ossetians — etnogenotsid in myagenkoy or rigid form (given the fact that Tbilisi is building a mono-ethnic government.) The revenues from these republics slightly (or developed economies, nor the strategic natural resources or human resources), but the costs and problems of many. So, Abkhazia and South Ossetia on virtually maintenance at Russia. Yes, and they can not give way.
A critical concept for the future of the Russian Federation republic is Ukraine (Little Russia), without it, the Russian people will lose much of its population, its historic area, which is an integral part of the Russian civilization. It is perfectly known in the West, because doing their best to drive a wedge between with 2 fragments of a single civilization.
At the current time with Kiev case, though not an ally, but it's better than under Kuchma or Yushchenko. Team Victor Yanukovych is trying to build pragmatic business with Russia. Accordin
g to the latest disk imaging, Moscow and Kiev have agreed the terms of lowering the price of gas for Ukrainian Russian country. During that our homeland will receive preferential treatment for their own investors, companies in the event of their role in the privatization of Ukrainian companies. In addition, between the Ukrainian State Bank, Ministry of Finance and the Bank of the Russian Federation, "Gazprom" agreed that "Naftogaz" will be able to pay for December already supplied gas from Russia in rubles. Immediately Russian "Gazprombank" gave "Naftogaz of Ukraine" loan 550 million dollars to pay for the delivered "Gazprom" gas.
It is understood that before the alliance far, but still have some positive steps. Again, as the global crisis will push the Russian Federation and Ukraine to the reunion. According to another just to survive, alone of all the break. Tymoshenko verdict and new case against her only confirmed these findings. European Union not to Ukraine's problems, he would most survive quite remember the last action around Greece and Italy. EU even Turkey is not going to accept into their ranks, although the Turkish economy shows excellent results. It is clear that if Turkey does not accept, then the chances of Ukraine in general not (except perhaps in the implementation of the "Yugoslav scenario" — split the Little Russian Federation into small pieces, and then their gradual absorption).
Our homeland, Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan — is the basis for a "Eurasian Union" (Newest empire of "Soyuz-2"). Together they will be able to withstand the storm to come. Today's disasters — this is not the highest point of the global crisis, the population of the earth has accumulated a very massive contradictions, "berries" are still ahead.
Moldavia. In general, the population of Moldova is quite close to the Russian — one religion, almost all preserved in Russian culture and language. For Moldova, it would be better to join the future "Eurasian Union." Romania's accession to the enormous benefits will not, but the problems may be added, especially in the implementation of the plan of "Greater Romania". For Moscow, this small country on the periphery of special strategic importance has not. But, on the other hand, to be reinforced by Romania as it is not worth it. Plus the problem of Transnistria. Transnistria can not donate, at least in principle. No matter what the assignment is perceived by the West and the international community as a weakness.
The Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania)
These countries are in 2004, members of the North Atlantic contract — our potential enemy. NATO holds frequent military exercises in the Baltic Sea, which apparently are brutal nature (with respect to the Russian Federation and Belarus). These republics are likely bridgehead for the attack on the north-western part of Russia, St. Petersburg, Belarus. NATO is their area of work for the development of infrastructure that can be used for planting and transfer strike group. Although the republics in the military sense of danger is not present, their armies are insignificant.
The populations of these republics should think over their likely future in the event of war with Russia — its location will be the battlefield. Baltic has always been a peripheral majestic powers of the West or Russia. And the greatest benefit of these lands were considered as a part of the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union — the population grew, infrastructure and culture (spiritual and real) have evolved.
At the current time, these lands in the West: the population is falling, people just run out of there, the economy is destroyed, a principal assets are sold, the country's debt, the bright prospects in sight. In addition, Westerners believe Balts and Slavs as Europe, a number of other people, people "second class". Of the future in the West in these republics is not. Estonians, Latvians and Lithuanians time to think about the restoration of normal relations with Russia.
Armenia has no future without the Russian Federation. Of course, if you do not want to be Turks and Muslims. Thank God, while in Yerevan understand it. This is the extension function reads the 102nd Russian military base in Gyumri until 2044, and without compensation from the currency of. This framework and alliance with Russia — the key to the survival of the Armenian people. The same factor holding back until now beginning recent war over Nagorno-Karabakh (another unrecognized republic of the former Soviet Union) between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which de jure belongs to this area. Taking into account the fact that the special relationship Baku and Ankara, Turkey can become an active participant in the war.
That is why the Prime Minister of Armenia Tigran Sargsyan, answering questions from journalists in St. Petersburg, said that Armenia appreciates and supports the idea of a Eurasian Union, which was proposed by Vladimir Putin. According to the Armenian Prime Minister, the establishment of such a union is a promising direction that is dictated by the times. Armenia is going to participate in this project, he added Sarkisian.
Azerbaijan to us at the moment is not the enemy, and not an ally. Baku recognizes Russia as a true mediator in the negotiations on Nagorno-Karabakh and supports economic affairs, buying an instrument, but less. Baku focused on Turkey, as part of the ideology of Pan-Turkism, and the West (military-technical cooperation with the United States, energy projects). Azerbaijan is due to hydrocarbons, well-developed economy, which allows you to play independence. In 2003-2008, the country's GDP grew by 2.6 times. Azerbaijan as of 2010 was in the lead in the middle of the CIS countries in terms of economic growth. This allows you to invest heavily in the modernization of the army, the development of its own military-industrial complex.
But the prospects of the republic as well as in independent countries are grim — the problem of Karabakh at some point lead to the recent war. Iran is at hand, things which are not the best because of the pro-Western and pro-Turkish course Baku. Republic of waiting, while maintaining the current course, the gradual merger with Turkey. And it is not profitable nor Iran, nor of, as Turks historical and potential opponents of these powers. Ankara with supplies of hydrocarbons of Azerbaijan and the Caspian Sea we do not need.
Georgia at the present time due to our policy of Saakashvili enemy. Tbilisi due to the "multi-vector policy" (targeting the U.S.) came to a war that has lost, with its outskirts, and Russian. And the lesson did not go to the benefit of the army rearmed, and course of cooperation with the West continued. Well and domestic policies to create a mono-ethnic Georgian country has not changed. Because Georgia is waiting for the imminent breakup and absorption of the adjacent countries — Turkey (Adjara), Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia. In the worst scenario, the Georgians are quite oturecheny and Islamized.
Output in such a situation: the Georgian people must find strength within themselves to repent of their mistakes before Russia, Abkhazia, South Ossetia and participate in the construction of the overall future.
Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan did not have such significance for Russia as Kazakhstan. We should not forget the attitude of these people, their elites to the Russian, who remained on the ground after the collapse of the republics of the USSR.
Turkmenistan is in the middle of their home — the country has a good economic base due to the huge supplies of hydrocarbons and a small population (a little more than 5 million people). While the relative stability in the world, Ashgabat can not live without the help of others. But before exter
nal factors, and the neighbors are the Republic of Iran and Afghanistan, and of the fact of having large supplies of natural gas and oil does not guarantee the integrity, Turkmenistan defenseless.
Central Asian republics will join several problems:
1) The problem of Afghanistan (with the risk of military invasion and the Taliban underground activities constructive Islamists to drug trafficking and territorial claims);
2) China's financial and demographic expansion (the threat of territorial losses for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan);
3) large socio-economic challenges, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and of the other republics there are problems to solve that without the help of others is virtually impossible;
4) aqua discrepancy, particularly keenly she stands for Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Policy worsens the situation in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and China, who are building their waterworks without considering the interests of neighbors. Some experts even they say about the ability of water wars in Central Asia in the long term;
5) external interference, their interests in the region is from China, the U.S., the EU, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia. In particular the strong negative impact of the policy the United States, whose actions in Afghanistan, Pakistan could undermine the whole of Central and Middle Asia.
Of course, our home is not in such a situation may be just an observer, limited integration with Kazakhstan. We must, as a minimum, to prevent the expansion of NATO's military presence in Central Asia, not to absorb this area to China and not to let it become a semblance of Afghanistan. In another we'll get an even bigger influx of drugs to millions of migrants (and with them, the epidemic rise in crime, the Islamization of the Russian Federation and other "joys"), the need to militarize the southern border and regions.
The main enemy — is the West
Western civilization has always been the enemy of Russia, and this theorem should not be forgotten. "European choice" of — it's absurd or deliberate provocation. In particular, the aggressive Russian Federation is the Anglo-Saxon part of the Western world. All the advances of the United States and Moscow are focused on one thing — to lull care, and then by the Russian Federation to build his "bright future."
In particular, there is significant event that happened at the APEC summit. South American side said the United States wants to deploy a missile defense system around the perimeter of the boundary of. The original argument for the Protection of Western Europe from Iranian missiles fabulous here do not even cited. Positioning South American missile defense system in the northern seas can only against ballistic missiles of Russia (the other simply is not).
In principle, the fact that Washington first openly lied about its European missile defense system, to understand everything. But the fact that now openly describes the development of a missile defense system around the Russian countryside, can we talk about the fact that its design has passed all stages of the development and approvals (from the technical to the money). And now the U.S. simply inform Russia about the fait accompli. You can call this event an ultimatum Moscow — it must in foreign policy resume the course Kozyrev (Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation in 1990 — 1996) or …
Another "bell" (or rather already rumbling alarm bell) to be a statement of Moscow's New Deputy Secretary of State for Political Affairs Wendy Sherman. According to her, Snow-white house refuses to give the Russian Federation legally binding guarantees its own missile defense not directed against the Russian country, though ready to provide guarantees political. Sherman believes that "it would be the wrong move" against the NATO member countries.
Based on this, we must realize that the U.S. and its allies will try to destroy Russia, then to suck it in parts, as the former Yugoslavia. For this scenario, there are external and internal, some are already in the process of implementation.
Western Europe. There is a frank enemy centers, such as London (UK), the Vatican, Poland (a tool of Washington and the Vatican). There are countries with whom we can cooperate and be broadly neutral. This is Sweden, Norway, Finland (if not go the way of the revival plans of "Greater Finland" at our expense), Austria, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, etc.
With Germany needs a strategic alliance, at least in the sense that the Germans did not participate in the plans against us, and we help Berlin become the "head" of the European Union. At the current time, the Germans behave quite appropriate. Lessons 2-defeat in the first and second global wars went to their benefit.
You have to be very careful in the current time against Serbia and Greece. There is a perception that we once again wish to catch a love for "brothers" in the faith and to draw blood, so Makarov, in a series of conflicts that could result bolshennymi neuvvyazkami. With the help of Kosovo (Serbia) and Greece (the conflict with the Turks) push us to the Muslim world.
Significantly here the statement of Dmitry Rogozin. Russia's permanent representative to NATO, said that he had discussed with the head of the Ministry of Defense Anatoly Serdyukov the possibility of creating in Russia so called "Slavic battalion". He proposed to use the experience of the Foreign Legion of the French: After serving in it the Serbs, Bulgarians and other Slavs were able to get Russian citizenship. Rogozin also said that our homeland might recall their own historical experience, when the empire "saved and exported close in spirit and faith of the people on its territory."
In general, if the global crisis dashed European alliance and lead to a series of new conflicts and wars in Europe, our home (with the success of the Eurasian project) can not remember the ideas of Pan-Slavism. Combine all Slavic republics around superethnos Russov, to dekatolizatsiyu, deislamizatsiyu Slavic Europe. Bring them back to the Slavic matrix. But this is a very long-term perspective and with a mass of suitable accompanying events.
The Islamic world
It is very heterogeneous and does not represent the total force. The main centers of power in the modern Islamic world — is Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Iran, Pakistan (due to the nuclear arsenal). Frankly we are aggressive Sunni Wahhabi monarchy, their main center — Saudi Arabia. This is an enemy that waged war against us in Afghanistan and Chechnya, supports the Islamist underground in the current time is an ally of the West.
It is reasonable and appropriate to support their enemies — the secular Syria and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Syria at the current time, a de facto ally, since opposes the West and the Gulf monarchies. In addition, via Syria, we maintain a single opportunity to own a military presence in the Mediterranean.
Iran at the moment, our potential allies, since the first strip is placed on the outside of defense, as well as Syria. If you will be destroyed by Syria and Iran, the border war will take place on the Caucasus and Central Asia. Well profitably cooperate with the Iranians, they can pay for projects in the field of peaceful nuclear development Closely Cosmos, construction of railways, civilian aircraft to take defensive weaponry, etc.
Friendship expected from Arab or Islamic states do not. Everything is decided by the interests, attitudes, ability or inability to defend their interests, temporal coincidence or non-coincidence of interests. Powerful countries, in which there is money, weapons, technology, enjoy respect.
RF are more profitable authoritarian secular dictatorships like the fallen regime of Gaddafi or Assad today. Th
ey are more predictable. It makes no sense to help design the Islamists, who for their enemies. However, if the Islamists have their place — it's definitely bad, it is a war of Central Africa to the borders of India, China and Russia (well, inside the Russian Federation). It is necessary to keep in mind that the Islamists — a tool Anglo-Saxons.
For example, when the rules of Egypt, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, he was guided by the West, but has been profitable for Moscow and other countries, as when there was an order in the country, the country became Russia's tourist mecca. Islamists underground gas pipeline to Israel often did not blow up, the tourists were measured pace for his life, Coptic Christians were oppressed, but not as tough as in the current time when they are tens of thousands are fleeing the country.
Turkey — our largest trading partner, as we have them. But Ankara has no friend or ally — she supported the anger against Libya against Syria, agreed to place the South American missile defense base, it's a given that the Turkish countryside and so is the base of the U.S. Air Force. Eventually, if neo-Ottoman Turkey's ambitions prevail over common sense, then we will face the prospect of the latest Russian-Turkish war of at least a "cold".
It depends more on the situation of the Jewish state. If Jerusalem will continue to be led by the U.S., to be his ally, then, apparently, Israel will not survive the global crisis. Jews waiting for a new scattering.
If Israel will build more constructive line, find an ally in Russia, other centers of power, then the chances of saving the Jewish country is. Besides prudent to maintain a Jewish government in the country today — the Arabs own many countries do not necessarily have to create one (obviously non-viable). Aboriginal land of the Arabs — Arabian Peninsula, and their claim to Palestine is historically unfounded. Moscow needs to keep in mind that a significant portion of Israel's population — are ex-Russian and Russian citizens, this factor should be used. Israel — it's a kind of counterweight to the Arab passionarity.
From Latin America because of its remoteness problems should be expected. In fact, with all countries can develop constructive economic, cultural, scientific, tourism ties. Cuba, Venezuela and other countries of socialist orientation should be our allies, are at hand at our head geopolitical enemy and bring him problems. But with all this need not repeat the mistakes of the USSR — wasted people do not squander resources.
India. This power, along with Russia and China to maintain stability in Eurasia. We are a strategic partner at the time of the Union of Russian and currently maintained good relations. Because in the course of a comprehensive military-technical, scientific, economic cooperation is correct. Need to jointly implement large infrastructure projects in Central Asia, to solve the problem of Afghanistan, to prevent the spread of Islamic radicalism.
China. Generally spoken about India is correct with regard to the Middle Kingdom, but there are some differences. We have common enemies with China — Islamic radicalism and the Anglo-Saxons, who are going to kill the Russian, Indian and Chinese civilization. But we must keep in mind that China has its own national interests, the Chinese expansion (in the main financial) targets and Russia, the republics of Central Asia. Chinese war machine we have at hand, Moscow needs to find an adequate political, military response.
Japan at the current time, our enemy, an official U.S. ally. But we can form its own Pacific Alliance, which will give Tokyo ability to execute its plans for the Kuril Islands. Japan is a potential enemy to China and North Korea as an ally of the United States. Alliance of, North Korea and China will be able to fend off the aspirations of the United States and the country of the rising sun in the Asia Pacific region.
The Asia-Pacific region. In fact, with all countries can develop a common cause. A special role to play due to Vietnam. The alliance with this nation can become a counterweight to China, as well as good relations with India. In other words, if Beijing zarvetsya, our homeland, Vietnam and India will manage its "cool" without war. Our homeland huge role can play in restoring the unity of the Korean people, after which it became a strategic partner.