In February of last year to begin a systematic sample to weaken and overthrow the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad's favorite. But to claim that they have suffered misfortune, not as part of the great cities of the country is not uncritically regard to their own favorite. Apart from Homs and brash, you can name and some provinces, such as Idlib and Deraa, in what is a real guerrilla war. All this gives the opportunity to the disappointing conclusion — in Syria came a split, resulting in relation to the current government valued.
Considered to be more unsafe lane connecting the northern town of Idlib, Aleppo and Latakia. For example, the distance between the towns of Latakia and Aleppo is about 200 km by road transport can be overcome in 4 hours. But when we talk about air connection, the better for security purposes do solid "hook" when he reached first to Damascus, and only later — to Latakia. Clarifies all very simple: once the organization of mass disorders in order to defeat the regime was defeated, his opponents from the cities fled to the mountain and woodland.
But these successes are now constructively minded opposition are limited because, despite all their tricks, most of the local population all the same continues to strongly support Assad in his honor composed many songs. Moreover, some residents do not just decorate your own images presidential house or car, and make the tattoo with his portrait.
Something similar with respect to their favorites can be followed in other Arab states. A striking example of this is Egypt or Libya. Cult of personality which inherent in the Arab world, raises the possibility of establishing oscillation of "democracy", which is so willing to reach some of the Government of Western countries.
In the media, disk imaging than once supplied information about opposition bloody clashes with the security forces, while most of the meetings taking place across the country, organized in support of Assad.
But in this case, there is a legitimate question: Why is today the official Syrian authorities have not been able to use the situation with the utility itself, and why their own actions avoided reliance on the masses?
In response to the question of why Syria does not use the Algerian experience, when the state managed to overcome the Islamists in 1992-1999, with the help of the people, Lieutenant-General Osama Khaduri replied that he was afraid such option, as the presence of civilian firearms may eventually become a prerequisite for the development of violence. In addition, he added that the division of the people on the basis of belonging to one or another ethnic denominations may be unsafe, because specifically for pushing the interests of people with different profession stake constructively minded western favorites.
And although later Lieutenant-General added that some Syrians have a right to certain types of guns in the main guns and shotguns, but to provide for themselves, that with the help of this tool you can resist the rebels with machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades, unreal.
It is clear that without the support of any insurgency will not be able to exist for a long time. Syrian terrorists are no exception in this regard. Coupled with the fact the Syrian government, complaining of subversion waged by militants on its territory of Saudi Arabia and Qatar, does not solve anything in order to complete this activity. And it could be, at least, to introduce for the population of these countries visa. At this point, every inhabitant of at least some Arab countries can fully come to the area of Syria for the purpose of any acts of terrorism.
But to answer the question of why nothing is being done in this direction, none of the controls failed. A prerequisite for such inactivity referred to the fact that Syria is a brotherly nation as to Arabia and Qatar for. And if the Syrian government deems it necessary to introduce visa restrictions, in the Arab world, all statements about the desire for unity will be considered fiction. But at the same time, some progress on this issue is all the same. Thus, restrictions were placed on the visit of the Turkish people. But this is not the only Arab government…
Most of the security forces are also very negatively to the ability of the introduction of visas. They are motivated by the fact that the insurgents and so secretly sneak into the country, as the Syrian government has perfectly protected borders and sufficient control over the movement of people. But you can enter at least of mandatory registration, which will allow to control not only the movement of the Syrians themselves, and strangers in their own country.
It is clear similar approach to prepyadstviya has a number of negative side, but all the same basic need remains configuration situation where Syria has practically become a revolving door for terrorists.
A prerequisite for refusal of the visa regime is the fact that a huge number of Syrians leaves for work in the adjacent Arab countries, and restrictions may result in the way that such earnings will be closed, which is banging on the pockets of many Syrian inhabitants. And at this point in principle to find what is considered a priority — the well-being of the occupants or the security of the country.
It creates the impression that the Syrian government does not understand the threat that threatens the state. This is under no circumstances should fear the people, but only just sounding ideas coming from "above".
In principle, also note the fact that military units are designed to protect the country from external enemies, characterized by a large and bulky non-mobile, and they can not fight with small groups of militants. As a result, the army can not react quickly to all terrorist attacks and those usually have time to go to the emergence of the military.
In such a case it would be wise to do the people's self-defense units, especially in places inflated impermanence. Specifically, they have been able to greatly assist regular troops, the first to react with the appearance of unsafe situations.
And although the latter Syrian Favourite preferred not to rely on the masses, it seems, now the situation has changed slightly.
1st national armed detachments were made in Latakia. Their number does not exceed fifteen people. Each district is formed group of volunteers for night duty to provide protection against the penetration of the enemy, as a tool for this completely formally receive from law enforcement agencies.
Of course, such announcements give hope for a positive ending struggle. There is nothing more disgusting is that the Syrian government decided to go the way of Algeria. Maybe he should have to go slightly further and do on the basis of these few folk groups sort of counter-insurgency forces. These formations were made in the Russian and the Russian Federation called them part of a special mission. The composition of these groups included the Communists, Komsomol members and class-conscious workers. Naturally, it is clear that the specificity of the formation of such criteria in Syria will be radically different. The basis of their country may be completely not only the organization "Baas", and the Christian and Alawite community. At the same time, the opposition accuses Assad is the existence of such a form, namely "death squad shabiha." But it is reasonable to imagine that if shabihi existed and acted in the way that grab the opposition, it is unlikely that the rebels would be able to feel so free in certain areas. The Syrian government, however, denies that the formation of such acts,
arguing that shabihi has long since turned into a mafia structure, which not only harms the authorities, and also engaged in smuggling.
In the criteria, when state security and military structure shown to be ineffective, it is necessary to adopt new measures and introduce new mechanisms to ensure that terrorists have finally realized that they have for each dead military they will be able to sustain a much more significant loss. And the Assad must finally end up pretending that nothing much is happening, and that appears by itself.
If the situation will evolve in a similar direction, soon, according to analysts, the next likely scenario.
1st — Syrian army will restore order in the country. But there is a natural question: who then negotiate?
Second scenario — power. A military strike on the Syrian countryside country can do or Saudi Arabia itself, or from the territory of the Alliance of the same Arabia. Some Arab countries, such as Turkey, such a scenario is very disadvantageous, as the Turkish territory almost immediately reincarnated as a place of aggregation of refugees, including the Kurds, which is very bad for the political situation in the country.
There is a third scenario, which implies the intervention of Iran. Recall that in 2009 Assad signed a contract with the Iranian government on mutual aid. Intrigued by the Government of Iran of supplying Syria yavna, because if it falls, will inevitably be followed by a blow to Iran itself from NATO.
In the current time of self-defense groups formed only in certain areas. But a similar practice should be extended to all government. It makes no sense to fear that a similar initiative could be seen as undemocratic measure and used as a pretext to increase pressure by Western governments. It is necessary to think about the style, if you already have the status of "bloody executioner?" After all, in fact, the West is not concerned about how many Syrians will die. The main thing for him is objectionable to overthrow the regime. Maybe in this case it is necessary to enable the people to defend themselves? Specifically, as can be expressed in a real democracy.