Just put yourself in the shoes of the same Egyptians, who though not wealthy, but lived quite well under Mubarak, having a good fat, including with our visitors. What is for you to interrupt your work, agreeing to reduce its income, and come out on the rebellion, risk, incidentally, their health and even their lives? It is clear as day that the streets of Cairo were handing out something. And, most of all, it had the means. It is certain the people of Kiev were ready to defend the freedom of the orange for 100-150 grams of vodka. Although it did not work in Kiev without green pieces of paper, which endows participants orange crowd, and especially the "Zapevalov" and instigators, who worked in the mass.
So, who and why requires the Arab riots, war and instability of the Arab East? Summarize the views of some analysts who publish its reasons in LJ and general users. Many of them have expressed outlook that the destabilization of the situation in the Arab world in general and in the Middle East has one goal: to limit the supply of hydrocarbons to the EU, Japan and emerging Asian countries, first in China and India. And who is it profitable? — Of course, USA.
The main suppliers of oil to European countries are Iraq and Saudi Arabia. And if the Americans in Iraq more or less figured out what all the same with Saudi Arabia?
That Americans are able to do to block the supply of oil to Europe and Asia in this country? The answer to this question can be given a card from the atlas of economic geography.
Simple logic says that in order to block the flow of oil from Saudi Arabia to Europe, you need to isolate the main oil terminals in Saudi Arabia. They are:
1. Export terminal of Ras Tanura (Persian Gulf). With this terminal shipped more than 75% of total exports of Saudi Arabia.
2. The complex Yanbu (reddish sea) — 25% of the supply.
Apart from these 2-Saudi oil export terminals produces more than 10 smaller terminals capable of providing export 15 million barrels of oil and oil products a day.
So makarom to cover 75% of the supply of Saudi oil, you need to overlap the Strait of Hormuz. A lock for the remaining 25% of the supplies necessary to block Mandeb strait. Hormuz strait Oman can block or Iran. His probable overlap has long declared control of Iran. This development can be fully unleashed in the case against him at least some anger. With Mandeb Strait harder: at the theoretical level it could block Yemen, Djibouti, Eritrea, and even Somalia. And the current mess in Yemen apparently not in the least justified by the struggle for control of the strategic region Mandeb Strait.
But overseas producers are not quite certain revolutions. Information about the place is overrun publications likely triggering a large-scale U.S. war in the Arab East, the purpose of which would be a violation of oil supplies to Europe, China, Japan and India, which are talking about.
What might be this war? If perfectly conceive, its beginning has already been made. This scenario predicts a number of prominent professionals and even by some very competent bloggers, and he kind of has already been realized. Beginning of the great Arab turmoil has already been laid in the form of war and civilian uprisings in all the major countries of the Arab world.
The main condition for any and all Arab revolutions was the destruction of the favorites that have held back the pressure of internal contradictions between the clans in their own countries. At present, strong regimes were overthrown in Iraq, Egypt, Libya and Tunisia. We must assume that such a scenario drawn up for several months already rebellious Yemen and Syria, and to Iran (it is a long-standing dream of the Yankees), and even Turkey.
There is a world view, according to which the subsequent state of the victorious revolution will be Yemen, and later, if you're lucky, and Syria. But the situation with Syria, of course, is even more difficult for the Yankees. Shake it will be not easy.
So Makarov, U.S. efforts will focus on the 2-countries: Yemen, and Iran.
The situation in Yemen has long been close to the boiling point. And with Iran Yankees will have trouble. In this regard, a good service to my friends can render Israel. It has long been clear that the Americans, in spite of all the well-known private military doctrine, is not averse to war by proxy, in particular where the use of the much-vaunted high-precision aircraft is stupid and should be entered in the case of people. Because pushing Israel and Iran fully into the hands of the United States.
What will happen?
Options for a large-scale regional war with Israel's many roles.
If Israel will succumb to the hype generated by the nuclear programs from Iran, and dare to preventive strikes against the country, Iran, following its davneshnim threats instantly closes Hormuz strait.
A new democratic government free of Yemen will take the example of a free government of Somalia and will request payment from all passing through Mandeb strait ships. At the technical level, Yemen does not cost anything to undermine strait, using ordinary boats.
In such a situation, the new government of Egypt will feel themselves masters of the world, since in their hands will be the only unlocked exit from the Atlantic to the Indian Ocean — the Suez Canal. They will be able to quietly double, triple or even tenfold fee for the passage of vessels through the channel, raising the cost of crude oil transported to Europe to astronomical heights.
Far from clear, and in Libya. There is still just beginning. Inter-tribal conflicts in the country will continue and will entail significant disruption in the supply of oil to Europe.
Why all this Yankee? The fact that the destruction of the energy market — this is the only chance to save your own undivided U.S. superpower status. If the U.S. does not use it and do not redistribute the available energy routes, they will be locked out of the international economic system: the WTO will fall behind him burst Global Bank settlements in U.S. dollars forever a thing of the past, America will throw out all the concessions available now, will close for her their financial markets, abandon its investment in the stock market, will request the return of all currently available debt.
Geopolitics and the global economy — things are ruthless and unforgiving. Heighten tensions in the Middle East caused by far not the fact that Americans are evil and dangerous, but only in that it is a fair demand of the public interest, the question of the survival of the U.S. as a superpower, the existence of which is very energy intensive.