— So, Leonid, that still have to wait on the Syrian conflict on?
— Plainclothes war, and specifically in this phase of the conflict has escalated, develops according to the worst of possible scenarios: in the absence of the smallest progress diplomatically front side bet on a military solution prepyadstviya. July 18 explosion rocked the building of national security council, which deprived Bashar Assad several close associates, shows that the armed opposition has committed itself to the physical removal of the Syrian president. Because the last time, it should wait for her new attempts to "get" Bashar Assad, in other words, a repeat of what we have already followed in Libya, where there have hunted for Muammar Gaddafi.
Do not rule out that this conflict is not without direct military intervention from outside. Indirectly, it is from the beginning — specifically external forces fueled the conflict, prepared, equip and funded opposition fighters. With all this turned a blind eye to the fact that among them were Islamists and terrorists of all stripes. Take, for example, a particular role in the conflict militant organization "Al-Qaeda", which declared a "worst anti-American." But, as they say, for the purpose of merit by all means bad.
Yet the intended goal — to overthrow the regime of Bashar al-Assad — not yet solved. Founders and masterminds of the conflict obviously miscalculated. On the one hand, the opposition forces were so scattered that they can not yet join in a single movement. And on the other — the government forces, especially their alaviyskaya part, regardless of the messages disseminated by the mass desertion, retain the highest combat effectiveness. They even carried out in the criteria of the conflict doctrine, as was the first of July, when the units of the Air Force, Navy and infantry practiced as Syrian media said, "action to repel an attack from the sea, air and land." Well, most of the country's population, in contrast to the same Libyans who lived even better Syrians support mode available. Especially after he went on a series of political reforms.
But money, and considerable, in conflict nested. Hence, it is, unfortunately, expect that it will try to bring to the desired result. In this regard, our experts believe that in the current time there is a development covered with half-closed, and the shares of foreign military intervention. Specifically, they note that in the West, frequent statements about the need for reliable safety of chemical weapons Bashar al-Assad, and do not preclude the ability of specifically what it can become an excuse for a military operation against Syria.
Taken together, it should be emphasized that the decision to forcibly conflict in Syria will not only be a disaster for the people of this country, and a serious threat to peace in the region.
— You said that the conflict is not solved task eliminating the regime of Bashar al-Assad. But it is — it is far not the only goal that was set before him who incited conflict?
— Of course not. The conflict in Syria, and in general "cleaning up" Near East and North Africa, their organizers seek to solve a range of problems, both visible and sheltered. The former should first include the problem of Iran. I am confident that the West has long come to the conclusion that it can only be solved by force. But a military operation against Tehran he did not need a "second front" of cohesive military necessity Arab allies of Iran. Because the chain was created by the "color revolutions" in the Arab world, with an obvious character "cleansing rears" to a large military operation in the region. Syria — the last link in the chain, and the very principle, taking into account that between Damascus and Tehran have developed special case. Although I strongly doubt that Syria Bashar al-Assad during a military operation against Iran would start any military action against its neighbors. It was decided to just in case "clean up" and her.
2nd trivial problem — the Shiite militant organization "Hezbollah", striving to do in Lebanon on the model of Islamic government of Iran. It is much to "get" all, especially Israel. Because such calculation here, left without money and military aid to Syria and Iran, "Hezbollah" or the existence of a completely finished, or markedly reduce its activity.
As for the not so noticeable, but more, or even more important problems to be solved this "mopping-up", then I'm in the middle of them on the first place would put China. This fast-growing global power, which will soon probably want to declare for themselves in a new status, essentially abandoned historic challenge to the United States. And they frantically seek out the ability to take it — say about "his return" in the Asia-Pacific region, expanding its military presence in the event of a direct confrontation with China, are preparing a new breakthrough in the industrial and financial development, seeking to block the supply of hydrocarbons to the Middle Kingdom, without which it would choke the economy.
The last is precisely one of the objectives of "Arab revolutions". After all, when Gaddafi China received from Libya to 13% of the oil it required. And at the moment, this source is blocked. 2nd — Iran, which provides their supplies 26% of China's economy energoelementov right — as already mentioned above, in the queue. Solving the problem of Iran, the United States that killed 2-birds — establish control over Iran and "block oxygen" to China.
According to the views of our professionals for the "Arab revolutions" costs and inter-civilizational struggle that now more and more crowding of international practice classical forms of conflicts, built on the clash of interests of nation-states. In this case there is a collision of Anglo-Saxon and Middle Eastern models — each own world view and value system. It is believed that the leading global powers seeking to global leadership, is now profitable to international conflict manageable and then use it for their own purposes.
In other words, the strategic formulation, played out in the region, Syria is only an intermediate, stage, on which the development of the whole operation as a whole. In this context and intended to reformat Syria. In the opinion of professionals RISS, her these criteria destined to Iraq which after the American anger is actually split into several quasi. Look at the Kurdish regions of Syria, they are currently fenced off from the rest of the different barriers areas of the country and are ready at any moment to declare their own independence.
— And our homeland? After all, w
hat is happening in Syria, and is aimed against our country …
— You are completely right. Moreover, this focus is the multi-vector nature. The conflict has badly affected the economic and military-technical cooperation between Russia and Syria. In the case of the forcible overthrow of the regime of Bashar al-Assad Our homeland is not only lost in the face of Syria's own ally in the region, and will be obliged to give up many positions in the Middle East, which serves as the country, an important node crossing of global communications, broad market sales products. RF will have to close the place of logistics, stationed at the Syrian port of Tartus, which will lead to a reduction of its presence in the Mediterranean and the Middle East, the regional arms market.
And that's not all. In the media, disk imaging was reported plans to build on areas of Syria pipelines that will natural gas from Qatar to Europe. And this will make unnecessary "South Stream" on the project which has been running our home pretty great time, and lower values for Europe "Nord Stream".
Quite a lot has been said and that emerging in the Middle East, the new geopolitical realities concretely affect the situation of the Russian Federation itself. Specifically, experts note that there is a radicalization of the Islamic Ummah, are activated supporters of the same "Muslim brothers" who set the tone in the "Arab revolutions" in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia, and whose supporters are now sowing violence Syria. You understand that, according to the published data, in 49 regions of Russia, as in CIS countries identified structures made emissaries "Muslim brothers." Their main purpose in Russia is fomenting separatist sentiment in the "Muslim areas" and stuffing in the public mind the idea of the creation of this space municipalities Islamic type in the so-called "Great Islamic Caliphate." Emissaries "Muslim brothers" have ideological, military and financial support to militants in the North Caucasus.
One should also note that all of these processes lead to the expulsion of the Russian Federation from the south, where it came back a few centuries ago, seeking to gain access to the southern seas. Bolshennomu on account of the southern lands belonging to the Russian Federation was only some ledge, similar to the peninsula, which covers the area of the North Caucasus, and to exit to the sea — only a single port of Novorossiysk.
— What, of course, enjoyed the Turkish elite, because our motherland for centuries competed with the Ottoman Empire for influence in the region?
— I would not say so. Of course, Ankara is interested in entering the North Caucasus and Muslim regions of Russia, but not that of price. For her, the decision forcibly Syrian conflict means the growing threat of the Kurdish problem, which can seriously aggravate the situation in Turkey. Ankara because from the very beginning was not interested in the fall of the Assad regime, spoke out against military intervention in Syria. This, incidentally, has once again highlighted, while in Moscow, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Yet the media is circulating widely reported that in the Turkish manufacturing areas are maintained for military intervention in Syria conflict.
Such ambivalence may explain the specificity of Ankara's relations with Tehran. On the one hand, Iran comes in 10 of the biggest trade partner of Turkey, last year the trade turnover between the two countries-name was above 10 billion. bucks. On the other — when Erdogan Turkey has committed itself to achieve leadership in the Islamic world. But that's the way it is in Iran, the potential of which also allows him to claim the role of regional leader.
— Turkish similar position in the Syrian conflict, and Israel is …
— In a certain extent this is true. Israel has a strong enough case workers with the Syrians. For the Israelis, Syria — "the devil they know." The thought of Sunni-controlled government "Muslim brothers" in their north-eastern border, scares Israel. Because he initially resisted the overthrow of Assad. But under the pressure of the masterminds "Arab revolutions" and the ability to gain the Iranian presence on Israel's northern border has changed its position. Namely, Defense Minister Ehud Barak said that "want to build accelerating the fall of the".
— In conversation you always use the expression "the organizers of the conflict", "instigators of revolution", but with all this, do not name specific countries. One would imagine that this is the United States. But if we analyze the results of the same "Arab revolutions" or consider the risk of coming to power in Syria, "the Muslim Brotherhood" and even "Al-Qaeda", it turns out that what is happening now in the Middle East and North Africa is not profitable to the United States .. .
— You have raised a very serious problem of requiring deep study. I'm not a supporter of the theory komplota unhappy, but I would venture to imagine that there nadtsionalnye structures that are engaged in their own interests in the name of the configuration of the configuration of the world. And their work is evident not only in the Arab world.
Take, for example, the European Union. That there did not know how to live Greece? Known, but it was in European society and normally exist together. But, here the EU has become stronger and show independence in certain matters of external and military policies. Then suddenly began to form the view that Greece was a weak link that can ruin the whole European Union. Namely, there is the claim that it will be created instead of a new alliance of 5 — 6 major European countries.
And the United States. I think that is not the case for two in a row term Democrats and Republicans nominate unequal contenders for the presidency of the country, condemning in advance to win the 1 st of them. After all, something and someone is behind this.
While it may be, supranational and national interests of the establishment of the West so closely intertwined that they are difficult to distinguish. In general, this question asks further study. How and what will continue with Syria.