Members: the journalist of the newspaper "The Belarusians and Market" Pavljuk Bykovskii and chairman of the Vitebsk regional branch of the United Civil Party Olga Karach.
Features of the current election campaign
Valery Karbalevich"Nyaklyayeu, Yaroslav Romanchuk and Andrei Sannikov said they have collected 100,000 signatures. Tereshchenko also announced that it has reached this milestone. And before the end of the campaign a week. Obviously, this time more successfully collected signatures. If the previous elections only action groups, which totaled more than 3 million members, collected the required number, but now this problem is solved and the group with less. For example, the initiative group Romanchuk has about 1,300 people, but that's also attracted 100,000. How do you explain this difference? "
Pavljuk Bykovskii"We have to wait until the action groups will not hand signed. After all, it is possible that the signatures were collected in error. In this company, more opposition candidates and their groups are present on the streets. This allowed the campaign to attract various opposition groups. And a lot of people signed for all the opposition candidates. But it is doubtful that the diversity leads to victory. But the opposition is seen in society. "
Karbalevich"Some experts and politicians come to the conclusion that the changed political atmosphere in the society, it has become more liberal."
Bykovskii"Changed the rules of collecting signatures, they are simplified. You do not have to say a signature in the executive committee, it is enough that the document will be signed member of the initiative group.
Now the police did not interfere hang out a white-red-white flags on the picket lines. But I do not think these revolutionary changes in the political atmosphere. They are more concerned with the change of tactics of the authorities. "
Olga Karach"Active people signing for opposition candidates means that people are so protest against Lukashenko and not supporting the opposition."
Karbalevich"And do not you think that the reasons for these queues on opposition pickets easier. Recently, Lukashenko urged citizens to put their signatures in support of the opposition candidates, said that we should help the opposition candidates to collect signatures, as they say, weak. And people took it as permission from the top, for that it will be nothing. "
Karach"No, I do not agree with this version. Lukashenko said that some time after the beginning of the collection of signatures, when it appeared on the stage of opposition pickets. This was a reaction to them, the justification of the queue."
How to successfully work action groups?
Karbalevich"How karelyuyutstsa between the amount of the initiative group and the number of signatures? It seems that in this election a direct link between these factors disappeared. We will not even mention the initiative group Haidukevich with the number 10,000 members, where there were people with Arab names. Here is another example — the initiative groups of the same Romanchuk and Statkievich roughly equal in size. But anyone seen picketing in support of the latter? "
Bykovskii"If you focus on the application of candidate's headquarters, it can be concluded that this time the petition is easier. But I'm not sure that this is true. To my knowledge, only the team Neklyaeva staggered went around the apartment in Minsk. The experience of previous campaigns shows that the signatures collected in apartments contain fewer errors. After collecting signatures in pickets less comfortable, where people in a hurry. Therefore, the size of the group is. "
Karach"My value is not only the quantity but also the quality. So I know how the group was formed Romanchuk. There, each member has signed a paper consent to participate in the campaign. That is, where people are motivated primarily — UCP members.
My experience bypass apartments evidence that such petition is hard. After all, people do not know the opposition candidates. The winner is the one who came to the apartment first. When the arrival of the second, third, fourth initiative group, people react aggressively, since accumulated a strong negative.
A picket line — this island dyskusiynastsi. And there are tough. After all, most people are not suited to the signature, and for the sake of discussion. And some aggressive mood, scream, insult. "
Future scenarios of the election campaign
Karbalevich"What are looming scenario further during the election campaign? How many people will gather 100,000 signatures? Lukashenko promised to register all those who fulfill this condition. What does this mean? What is the meaning of the tactics of the authorities? "
Bykovskii"I think Lukashenko opponents are several opposition candidates. Pozniak called their "collective Gajdukevich." According to my conversations, none of the candidates is going to be removed or boycott the elections. Thus, the opposition became more pronounced. But from the point of view of the layman, a negative factor is that the opposition is not able to negotiate. But Lukashenko will contrast himself as he would say, this theater of the absurd. Those pros who got the opposition during the collection of signatures will not necessarily be continued. After all, the opposition has no strategy.
Karbalevich"What is the role Tereshchenko in these elections? Also, no one saw that his initiative group collected signatures. But he declared that he had collected 100,000 signatures. "
Bykovskii"I personally know people who collect signatures for Tereshchenko. These people used to work for Democratic candidates. In general, due to the fact that the CEC has published lists of members of initiative groups, we see that there are people who work in different groups. All this is reminiscent of a farce. After all, is not likely that these people are fighting for the victory.
Karach"The authorities understand that the candidates who have collected 100,000 signatures, it will be impossible to withdraw from the election, so much is made of effort. After all, the candidates crush their team. Therefore, a single candidate will not, because there is no trust.
Lukashenko, this situation is advantageous, since stretch voice opposition electorate. Not going to mobilize the population against the dictatorship. It is therefore doubtful that this time will be a strong area. The opposition does not answer the question of what to do next. This question arises after the elec
tion. I think 6-7 is registered candidates. "
Bykovskii"Yes, they will gather as many signatures. But how these signatures are real? So much depends on what will be the scenario of the authorities, as they will be strictly approach to the verification of signatures. "