The Big Bang, a strategy that South American analysts have determined for Near East, the wave will cover the whole of Europe and the euro will wash away half of GDP. Implementation of the strategy directly affect about 1 billion. people. 830 million. — In Europe and 150 million people. — In North Africa and the Middle East. The main feature of the current situation is just a small period of time during which managed to get such a large-scale concept to implementation. Active production began in 2011 after the revolution in Tunisia, and by circumstantial evidence can be presented that by December 2012 the prepare phase has been completed. Next — execution.
It takes a quarter of U.S. GDP
In 2008, money markets lost 50% to 75% converted into wealth smoke at about $ 10 billion. $ Per hour. The incident stunned and drop participants and observers, the national government began to announce support measures. To recover the lost peace of mind and the state, the major central banks one by one began to print money. During the period of 2009-2012. Only naikrupneyshimi Central Bank has been written about 8842 billion. bucks. Estimate the value of incentives is, if you look at the GDP of the world. Just 4 years he wrote more than 10% of global GDP, or 20-25% of the GDP of each country emissions. Accurate assessment of acquired 8850000000000. Bucks need to add Chinese agents, CB second echelon, hidden incentives in the form of recapitalization and almost negative interest rates of the Central Bank chief. So Makar, the total amount of wealth is completely written may be close to 20% of global GDP.
Brutal role of central banks has meant that the price of many assets actually recovered. After that, the Americans, to the ears sitting in the shares, as the world's major consumers should again feel secured and start taking new homes, cars, and the rest is detail. Recovering drug would confirm the price of factories and ships. But it did not work out, to assure the Yankees waste no longer possible, they began to make savings.
To all the same to return peace and order to the South American (first by market capitalization, and is chief of the capital), the market and return consumption to rewrite the price tag on the assets and put it at the level of at least 125% from 2007, to the S & P500 this corresponds to 1875 pt. According to the IMF of U.S. GDP in 2011 was about 15 trillion. bucks. Where to get an additional 3.5 — 4.0 trillion. Bucks Gross Domestic Product? A direct comparison of GDP and stock market indices, for sure, not very well, and 10 pt GDP may not meet the 10-point index. Nevertheless, the correlation is even, and in this context has a value greater order of magnitude than the value itself. And it turns out that like it or not, the U.S. needs to take a quarter of GDP in some places.
Shale gas, which pinned its hopes as America, was real and has already given a powerful impetus to its re-industrialization. Naikrupneyshie concerns vkladyvatelnye rewrite their plans under the "slate". Factories and mills, one way or another related to the implementation and processing of natural gas in the area vorachivayutsya USA. This was carefully write "Sheets" in the article "Rust Belt" of America revived thanks to a cheap gas. " But ordinary job growth is not enough, and 20 or 200 new plants — is only half the story.
The total price includes the basis of assets and multiplicative components. The base part is sewn up in "iron": Works as a means of production is available, the company generates a flow of foreign exchange. Base price corresponds to the money that can be obtained in the form of dividends to shareholders, and the maximum — it's a one-year profit. Multiplicative part — it's expectations and predictions: there taxes and regulation, talent management, qualification of workers, territorial danger and much more. Evaluation of annual profits to 10 means that 90% of the price — it is emotion, and only 10% — this is the "iron". For this reason, shale re-industrialization will be able to provide only 10% of the price. In order to S & P500 climbed to 1875 Fri, emotions are necessary in the amount of 9/10 * 25% of U.S. GDP = 3.0 … 3.5 trillion. bucks.
Price can be done, but it's a long time, and the result is not guaranteed. In addition, shale gas has already outlined the "iron" that must be capitalized, and nothing new to invent is not required. Taking into account the sensuous nature of prices is even easier, and most importantly, faster redistribute this price. Order of magnitude in the world there is one area that will be able to provide the desired multiplier for all "new and an old American plants." (See table "GDP of the world") This is Europe.
Euro Union's GDP is U.S. GDP. European Union — is 27 states, the massive administrative structure and 15000000000000. GDP bucks at all. But detailed examination reveals that in Europe there are several major areas, generating gross product: North Rhine-Westphalia in Germany and the Ile-de-France in France. These areas cover a relatively small area, small-sized and comfortable from the standpoint of price control. Both areas — perfect for office buildings, exhibitions and conferences, institutes, theaters and museums — is a grand showcase of Europe and almost a dream come true for immigrant wonderful life, and they confirm their own particular interest to these places, sometimes arranging riots in the suburbs of Paris.
Ile-de-France (Map — 1)
The Paris urban agglomeration, the total area of 12,000 square meters. km and a population of 11 million. Gross Regional Product in 2009 — 559 billion. euro or 25% of the GDP of France. Strong economic center. The third part of the 500 largest companies in the world have their consulate here or affiliates. Naikrupneyshy the world center for tourism, conferences and exhibitions. The region attracts a greater volume of foreign investment in France, ranking secon
d in Europe in this indicator. In the region of Ile-de-France has 37% of managers and management companies in the country, 40% of the professionals engaged in research and development, and most of the French students. In 2009, the service sector employed 83% of employed residents Ile-de-France.
North Rhine-Westphalia (on the map — 2)
One of the more economically developed urban agglomerations in the world. On the territory of the district is 18% of German exports, imported more than 23% of German imports. Area of 34,000 square meters. km. population of 18 million people (20% of the population). Gross Regional Product in 2009 — 522 billion. euro or 20% of German GDP. The region has 37 of the 100 largest companies in Germany, with all this, more than 70% of the companies belong to the middle class. The exclusive territorial accessibility: extensive network of road and railways. 6 airports serve 450 direct international flights. Once industrial area with a strong mining and steel industry, now NRW — it naikrupneyshy cultural, tourist and educational center: 200 museums, 120 theaters, 68 institutions and 500,000 students. It shares borders with Belgium and the Netherlands.
Ports (map — 3, 4, 5)
600,000 people, 30% of the population does not have Dutch roots, the mayor — Ahmed Aboutaleb (Moroccan), the turnover in 2008 — 10 784 thousand TEU. The main oil port in North-Western Europe.
1,770,000 people, 260,000 people (15% of the population) have only foreign citizenship, the turnover in 2008 — 9,737 thousand TEU.
470,000 people, the area — 2,85 thousand square meters. km., the turnover in 2008 — 8,663 thousand TEU.
50 in the middle of a huge cargo turnover ports in the world in 2008 was 9 European, which took about 50 000 thousand TEU of cargo. From their Rotterdam and Hamburg together provide 40% of the turnover. With all of this deep-Rotterdam, which is of strategic importance for Europe, European, practically it is not.
And then there is follow-up question: how to reallocate price between markets?
Strategy huge explosion
The idea of the U.S. presence in the Middle East, on public formulated in 2006, when Condoleezza Rice began read about the "New Middle East" is "to mix the pieces on the chessboard Near East", "push deep transformation" and "drag the region into the orbit of global processes. " South American strategists have laid the general thesis in the concept of a huge explosion. On this theme one of the founders of the concept, Thomas Barnett, in 2009 published a book, "The Great Powers: America and the World after Bush." In the article "East shakeup" on the Strategy huge explosion writes Kommersant-Vlast number 46. After a couple of years, the concept has caught perfectly viewable circuit and can be designated some of its components.
The "Arab Spring" that began spontaneously December 17, 2010 in Tunis, very quickly acquired a controlled temper. After 2 months of mess and protests were shrouded in 20 countries in North Africa and the Middle East. By the end of 2012 along the coast of the Mediterranean Sea with direct or indirect involvement of U.S. special forces "Arab Spring" has formed a "belt revolutions." At present, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Syria, Jordan and Lebanon — it is a war zone with the role of standing armies, riots, protests, shootings, demonstrators, the police fired tear gas. Just a "belt revolutions" are about 127 million people.
September 11, 2012 at the Egyptian television showed several fragments from the film "Innocence of Muslims." Videos spoke about the Prophet Muhammad in an offensive manner of course. Once the video hit the web, Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Lebanon and other Muslim countries have begun mess. The Pentagon said it was ready to put additional Marine units in 18 states.
September 19, 2012 the French weekly published cartoons of the Prophet Mohammed. French Foreign Minister spoke out against "any provocations", immediately recalling the freedom of speech. After that, as a precaution France "temporarily" closed its offices, embassies and schools in 20 Muslim countries.
September 16, 2012 in the Gulf began teaching naikrupneyshie mine. Within 12 days of the U.S. ships, France, the land of the rising sun, England and other countries practiced methods for the elimination of minefields in the Strait of Hormuz in the event of a conflict with Iran.
In November last naikrupneyshie joint exercises missile and air defense forces of the U.S. and Israel "severe challenge — 12". Within 3 weeks, with the participation of 3,5 thousand U.S. troops and one thousand Israeli soldier is being followed "the whole range of joint operations."
First of November in the Institute's strategic research at Tel Aviv modeled the beginning of the conflict between Israel and Iran. According to the scenario the Israeli Air Force strike on Iran's nuclear facilities without notifying the U.S.. Iran responds to massive blow.
The idea of "New Near East" and the search for donors for the U.S. economy emerged in the form of puzzles at different times and for different reasons, were aggressively linked together. In 2010, the strategy of huge explosions almost becomes a mechanism for addressing problems of the United States.
After the coup in Tunisia in 2010, the inhabitants of the country went in search of the best of life. The Italian-on Lampedusa, 150 km. off the coast of Tunisia refugees were arriving at a rate of 1,000 people. / day. Italy formally requested help from the European Union, on the peninsula have introduced a state of emergency. Not coping without the help of others, Italy started issuing visas to immigrants, refugees began to spread across Europe.
Thomas Barnett, the ideologue of the Strategy huge explosion
Ile-de-France and North Rhine-Westphalia — is naikrupneyshie business centers in Europe. CEOs, directors and managers of companies are coming to work in the classrooms, meet together at shows, plan, make decisions. These are the people who manage investments in the billions of dollars. This same group is the main target audience of the project. Arab students set fire to cars in the suburbs of Paris, while not pose much of a threat: the groups are not organized and are not numerous, and the police have so far managed to extinguish the disturbance. 100 or 200 scorched cars — not a reason to withdraw investment, and now Europe — still a comfortable place to do business. But the situation changes dramatically if the Cabinet instead of 1,000 students will be 8-10 million hungry refugees from the caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad in his hands.
By December 2012 the total composition looks finished and ready for implementation.
The sending side:
1. Large and small town economic zone "belt revolutions" as a source of refugees.
2. The rebels and fighters for freedom, being trained at bases in Libya, Syria, Jordan, as a "lighter".
3. U.S. Marines in 18 countries and trainers as executives.
1. Two major economic zones of Europe: Ile-de-France in France and North Rhine — Westphalia in Germany.
2. Rotterdam and Hamburg as the main link in the supply chain of the European Union.
3. NATO base "Bondsteel" on the ground "Independent Kosovo" as the main point of the preparation of the performers and the coordinator at the receiving end.
1. Information provocations strip of Islam. Cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad or other variations on this theme will provide the required temperature events and hide the main goals.
2. Food inflation. In the experience of hunger riots in 2010 in developing countries, due to increases in the price of basic foods often cause irreversible democratic consequences.
3. 5 operational fleet of the U.S. Navy in the Persian Gulf. Responsible for timely blocking major highways and assemblies Near East.
To close the path and start the implementation, you need to get started, bright and beautiful. In accordance with the baseline scenario "war game" Israeli Air Force strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. Rocket salvoes in the Strait of Hormuz will block 40% of the global seaborne supply of oil and petroleum products. (Division of Marine statistics Lloyd's, 2006). The market reaction will be instantaneous, oil will rise in value. Due to the fact that WTI, without exports, the domestic market is closed and partially falls out of a total of pricing, one can imagine that the focus would be sort of Brent.
By analogy with 2008, increasing oil increment cost of the final product on the transport component and put the whole business on the verge of profitability. The global economy begins to collapse branches. Developing countries, particularly in North Africa and the Middle East, the first to feel the increase in fuel prices. Small in size, poorly diversified composition of the economy, with little strength in store, very responsive to any external configuration, and the most sensitive issue is the increase in food prices. Dear bread and unemployment — is starving population and a lot of free time, and the longer the oil will be expensive, the more actively and forcefully protests.
The ultimate goal — the European multipliers, and the scale of the project and the cost is an issue, such that the Yankees need to solve puzzle from the first, the second sample may not be. All of the maximum: the war of all against all, hunger, hysterical.
The coastal town of the Mediterranean Sea — is, on the one hand, the economically active areas of the port or the tourist infrastructure and, on the other hand, the main source of refugees. In this regard, Egypt is of paramount importance to the 80 million population. Cairo conurbation and the Suez Canal — it's more sensitive areas. Taking into account the fact that in September this year, mine-sweeping exercises were held in the Suez Canal, too, the situation in Egypt can develop very tough.
On decadal time intervals Brent is trading in a channel, the boundaries of which pass through the lows of 2001 and 2008 and a maximum of 2008 followed by a maximum in the range of this channel is at $ 160, this is the first level motivated. At the $ 216 level passes 161.80 Fibonacci to the fall of 2008. This is the second level motivated.
In 2008, speculators have no apparent circumstances were driven by $ 147 barrel. At the same time serve as a pretext large-scale military actions in the oil-producing region with a population of about 150 million. More compelling premise for a short-term crude oil purchases to think hard. In addition, all 2012 year Stock market participants conducted in a quiet melancholy: that does not grow, then falls. And the end of the year and there is a call only increases the painful feeling of hunger. In this regard, the presence of a reason and motivation level of $ 160 per barrel is clear and rapidly achievable. Speculators will fulfill the first goal without additional incentives under the only technical analysis.
In 2008, the "oil gon 'lasted 2 months and 10 days, beginning on May 2 at the level of $ 110 per barrel on July 3 headed for the top of the first and the second on July 13 marked. Highs and time and this time will determine the U.S..
America consumes about 20 million barrels. per day of which 75% is provided by the export. The largest commercial supplies (375 million barrels. In November), strategic supplies (~ 660 million barrels.) And increasing domestic production guarantee the performance of the U.S. economy for at least an additional 70 days, even if the overall "negative margins".
2008 levels of oil — this has been and is therefore not creepy. But 200 $ -220 $ per barrel — it's excitement, nerves at attention, it's creepy, and it's hysterical. When asked how this could be, can answer the Pentagon and the media. 5 Fleet of the U.S. Navy under the pretext of security covers the maritime transport in the region, CNN and the BBC, using profanity, loudly talking on TV about how terrible life.
New levels will require additional liquidity. First source — is issuing agent. Naturally, not all of $ 8 trillion. or $ 10 trillion. will update the raw highs, but the fact that the incentives were written in the banks and got to the "earth", it is a fact. Another source — corporate profits. Each year Forbes ranks the 2,000 large public companies and finds their means. In 2009, the participants of the rating earned $ 1.4 trillion., In 2010 — $ 2.4 trillion., In 2011 — $ 2.64 trillion. Surely, something from these funds took in "iron", but most is earned by banks in anticipation of the best times. The inevitability with which the approaching separation, forces the ability to find what is happening. 2 months of the current oil levels can double in value. At the Brent futures, this means th
at in 2 months the initial amount will increase by 20 times. Risk? Yes. But it may also be that this is a good reason to pay attention to the stock market and to meet with any broker.
After the December 2010 problem snowballing, tension grows exponentially and, certainly, the most enterprising member of the events is the United States of America. Slept Tunisia, the United States quite rapidly returned to active management of the region. On the other hand, excessive demonization of the Yankees in the face of State Department hides other more fundamental participants. There are huge doubts about the fact that even the United States with an army of analysts and their military budget could be alone for 2 years to prepare for war entire region. The role and importance of assistants in the general result it is difficult to overestimate. Sheikhs, lords, freedom fighters, revolutionaries, saviors — a huge number of interests and parties, a claim in a circle, and everyone thinks that he is the ruler of the mountain. Bowler hat, put on fire, can boil a very long time, but some indirect evidence they say that the situation is approaching his own climax.
Last year Americans dragged the entire structure, pushing the starting date. Exercises carried out in 2012, not including finishing training ensured the absence of provocation in this period. Until November, it was connected with the elections in the U.S., but the president elected, run across a phase of open warfare, and circumstances, and of ability to delay no more.
When planning a large event there is always a tendency to memorials. Global result of a huge explosion in the long term of 2-3 years will be the final dismantling of the euro area, with the result that Federal Reserve Note is the only global reserve currency.
History of the Federal Reserve began with the creation of its December 23, 1913. This year December 23 falls on a Sunday day. In this regard, if a broker familiar with all the same place, a position in futures on Brent makes sense to form before Friday 21 December 2012.