20 years ago. What was it? Himself according to the so-called coup itself because of nullity in respect of context is a secondary question. But 20 years without a superpower without a stately country — is already sufficient period of history, that is even better to behold what was not so clearly seen then.
That Putin referred to as "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe", of course, this was — this is a trivial fact beyond any relationship to the preceding and following processes.
Etog was, of course, a tragedy not only geopolitical, but also a moral, social and financial, including global scale — what svidetelstvet just nyneshnik crisis.
If we talk about the political disaster, more precisely, about the crash of the world order — it's a natural way to socialism was a tragedy, and of course, that not only the so-called "socialist camp" with real socialism izdohli. A most unusual way it was a disaster for liberal socialism, for socialism, social democratic, Western. Since it became clear that the event that the guarantee, political and economic impetus for his existence, in other words for a massive redistribution of the public, in any case, within the boundaries of the "golden billion" — was the presence of "real socialism." And the dismantling of social institutions that capitalism is built, the mechanism mix, in fact, true, fully predatory nature of capitalism — he is currently being dismantled. He dismounted outside the will and consciousness — the last now the "golden billion" no one will not ask because they do not have to be "gold" on billion heads.
And most importantly: it was a disaster for the "real capitalism."
It turned out that the capitalist system of world governance, the system of economic management, money management system, the control system in the interests of the needed counterweight. And rival (the USSR was not directly economic rival, but he was a rival stistemnym). Deprived of it, she went hawking. Again, if present themselves for the present crisis in the criteria of the current capacity of the USSR in the parameters of at least 1975 — it would have meant the victory of socialism in one-step global scale. That's why such crisis could never happen. The global capitalist system is not permitted to be present for yourself aferizm, adventurous, and sloppiness that it is permissible for themselves after felt like a full and undivided winner.
All chimeras Fukuyama about the "end of history" — they certainly have ordered a very long time to live. We currently litsezreem that history is not only not over, political development is not something that is not braked, reaching the highest tolerated own liberal-tops — we litsezreem that the story is just beginning. And this begins a new story with such critically unsafe and unpredictable forms, which are known before the beginning of the last century cataclysms just relax.
Now's return to local events. It was based on the beliefs of a particular episode in August 1991. Exactly 20 years ago the emperor Gorbachev brought to the airplane from Foros, like a bag of shit tied with tricolor ribbon. All about sovereign Gorbachev is clear: and posted documents, and the scale of the individual is confirmed. In fact Gorbachev here — very indicative figure. All we beheld 20 years ago, it was a manifestation of a systemic crisis and, pardon the tautology, the Russian crisis of the system. The essence of a systemic crisis in the fact that the system, when faced with a challenge, is unable to properly answer it. In other words, the system for its "answers" makes the situation worse, runs away. The figure is the perfect personification of Gorbachev systemic crisis. There is a brilliant phrase in one of his interviews. When asked, what are you from Foros yourself, then do not leave — and there was no protection, and fence a short, … — he said, "it's not the president's case — to climb over the fence!" Man on the one hand, unable to finish syntax, in other words, unable to systematically build organically situation, and on the other hand perfectly "adequate hardware" system — it's just a gift for disaster. History, usually deservedly grant disability of such gifts.
The most important resource, which absent in the system — the ability to legitimate violence. It is clear that the coup had been thought — show some will, scaring the ghosts of historical memory. But she just was not designed nor on any real organized violence. Vitaly Naishul somehow caused the legitimate power of working as a "government that has the right to shoot at their own." This definition is accurate. And sure enough it was clear that the coup for all of their own good intentions, their power was not considered legitimate. Because the case suppressed armored trusting ardent young men that were small enough to drop that collapsed the entire structure of so-called the coup. Nothing else could not be.
And there are two very fundamental lesson, very burning now. First: Unlike then, our society is now just a pregnant violence. Then no, there is no power structure, was not ready to give the order to fire. It is now easier to shoot than to send. Easier, cheaper, and less problems.
By the way, liberals cherished image of security officials who refuse to shoot at people — does not mean the rejection of violence. This fellow does not realize they can. It can mean the machine is just the intention to shoot. But not according to the order, and according to their own understanding, their own social and moral (or beznravstennomu) choice. What is not in any way lead to any consequences liberaloobraznogo character.
And the second. Colossal tragedy, geopolitical and financial, social and other, did not lead to any direct splashes of public violence, civilian war as it could be expected in such a large scale collapse with such scale of these transformations. According to one common reason: whatever is talking to "a theme of struggle with benefits", we have a homogeneous class society. And the level of social hatred in it was small — and some had no one to go to the civilian war. Again the same — lesson at the current level of social diversity of our society to say the least, a Latin American. Because in the case collapses, breaks even far the smallest character, than the transformation of the 20-year-old — the potential impact civilian clashes in the country is enormous.
In fact, everything that has happened in 20 years (even taking into account the efforts of the last decade to stabilize and mitigate social tensions) — in a deep regard has been building up the capacity of the civilian confrontation. The collapse of the Russian system has given the new government a resource tolerance. That legitimacy that was not there at the Russian predecessors.
Brand new system has a mandate to what already had the mandate of Russian — the legitimate violence, economic violence, political and even physical. And all of this power is used very rapidly and irresponsible. The mandate for the economic and social violence is a hundred percent more likely to default exhausted. Typically, starting from zero, with the Putin period, we dramatically grow social spending and general attention to social issues. Our social system, certainly, not very effective. But at the genetic level, the power understands that regardless
of the medium-term transformations in the short term need to fill, if possible, the social wounds economical means.
The mandate for physical violence was used on a large scale in October 93rd. You can imagine for yourself if on a dare gkchpisty, the Communists would be hung on all the poles as in Budapest in the 56th. Again: the legitimate authority — has the right to shoot at their own. But getting this right, lawful power perceives itself an enormous responsibility. After the 93rd then "transitional regime" has assumed tremendous irresponsibility. What in fact exhausted his legitimacy. Just here and there by the end of the 90s.
Now, if we talk about police violence — that segodnyaschy power, meticulously and aggressively stop all unauthorized civilian Tipo shares, which are in fact first specific provocation of violence — comes clear: the knowledge specifically limited capacity of large-scale violence. Since losing control over such Tipo funny and pathetic, she shares may have to much more serious violence and to use that power would not and could not. This strategy is fully adequate.
In general we can say that in the 20 years we have maintained a residual potential, but have not resolved any problems. The event itself is a 20-year-old was not a decision — it was, again, a disaster. Ideological, mental core of this disaster was the majestic illusion, as in the famous joke — "the old woman, everything that you and I felt an orgasm was asthma." While society did not understand that asthma — it's not an orgasm, nothing either to society or to the state it was impossible to do. From this point of view, Yeltsin was also completely adequate political figure. He was chairman of the perfect free-fall into the abyss. While the country does not hit the bottom of the abyss. Large fortune, that the shock of the blow brought not unto death, but to a partial spillage of consciousness.
The main thing we have gained — is the defeat of the liberal intelligentsia illusion. This in itself is a great happiness. From this point of view the latest designs — like the experience of a live body Misha Prokhorov — completely stupid. Nothing, apart from the expensive farce of them will not work.
Now a country that does not have 20 years. What's left of it? Remained "residual" potential Russian system, which turned out to be surprisingly enormous. We did not drag on for themselves the remains of Russian: the remains are dragging us to discover. Drag left even 5 years otsily. This is a first. 2nd: leave a generation that still remembers that country, in other words, it remembers what not to play in any case — and it remembers a different scale of life, goals, thinking, self-identification. In this case, not only in Russia — perhaps more clearly and more painful it is felt there, where it is more than just a crush. In the Republic of Moldova, Georgia and the Baltic States. This generation also left five years in the current position. Later will come the other — you can rely on his genetic memory, but god knows what that memory will draw in the brains of cat generation. In the end: 5 years we still have left to stretch on expensive energoelementah. And everything on — carefully, the doors are locked.
And … a rematch. Why is the course suitable social background, with demand for revenge — revenge did not work? So that was a rematch, we need the full and final tragedy. It did not work out. Here we take the royal Russia: a '20 from her nothing left. She actually was destroyed. Germany after World War II, was defeated, humiliated and disarmed. Russian Union of paradox lay in the fact that our favorite decided that everything was over. By the 99 th, they were convinced that the country that lost the war on the Chechen bandits, not capable of anything. That its nuclear and other potentials do not represent a serious danger or serious tasks. They could have then dunk — but out of greed, they do not have.
In general, the quasi-revenge zero years we have also had a certain degree of anesthesia. Already realizing the disaster, the country is on the physical level is real, geopolitically was unable to constructively treated. And the authorities it was neither the mandate nor the resources. No other resources, in addition to the anesthesia and as a primary resuscitation was not.
That's when the anesthesia is complete — it turns out that the wound has not healed. And at the second time the anesthesia does not work, will have to be cut.