Participants: analyst Yuri Chausov and the head of analytical projects BelaPAN Alexander Klaskouski.
Why a large number of applicants has collected 100 signatures tyyach?
Valery Karbalevich"Before the election, all the experts unanimously predicted that no more than two, maximum three opposition candidates gather 100,000 signatures. But according to the preliminary results of 11 candidates have already announced that they were able to overcome this threshold. Even taking into account that many of exaggerating his achievements, it is still a fantastic figure for Belarusian realities. How do you explain this phenomenon? "
Yuri Chausov"First, we need to assess those analysts who said the opposition" Democratic ghetto "dissidents." But the dissidents do not collect 100,000 signatures. Yet one can not compare the political system of Belarus and the USSR, it is more developed.
Of course, the authorities have created a more favorable environment for the collection of signatures. Since 2001, there has been such that, in the center of Minsk is easy to find a place where you can see the programs of opposition parties. And against the background of proposals collecting signatures for Lukashenko looked modestly. Appeal to his charisma did not light the nation. Also contributed to the work of the good weather. "
Alexander Klaskouski"We must wait for the test results of these signatures to separate bluff from reality. And who knows how strictly will verify the signatures electoral commission. After all, for the authorities, the greater the registered candidates, the better.
In any case, we are dealing with a record. As you know, Lukashenko publicly called for the opposition to put signature. But it happened a week after the petition when the authorities saw the queue outside the pickets opposition candidates. And this statement Lukashenko remained face.
Active signing for the opposition was because, first, that society psychologically tired of Lukashenko. Secondly, influenced by external factors (the conflict with Russia), economic difficulties. As a result of shaken faith in the stability of the Belarusian. Wage growth has not led to increased ratings Lukashenko. Therefore, people are looking for alternatives. However, the ratings of the opposition candidates are low. The Company does not see the personal embodiment of an alternative. "
The trend of public sentiment
Karbalevich"What the trend of public opinion revealed this stage of the election campaign? What does the large number of signatures in support of the opposition candidates? "
Chausov: I did not see dramatic changes in the public mood. There is also no evidence to suggest that more people signed in support of the opposition. Just now it is easier to find a signature collectors. As a lot of people at once subscribed for all the opposition candidates, it is possible that the total number of supporters of the opposition did not increase.
In a large number of candidates authorities see the collective Haidukevich. But the authorities can obtain and collective Milinkevich. Most of the candidates say they do not believe in a fair vote count and called to go out into the square. And this can lead to a lot of street actions. After all, each candidate will his supporters column. But, of course, the voter wants to see a single personalized alternative. "
Klaskouski"Yes, the government turned her nuts, and this is reflected in the collection of signatures. Now there were pickets outside the debate. This is similar to Gorbachev's perestroika, when the people entered the taste of politics. Then political star rose Lukashenko. He remembers that period, so the power will be metered very unscrew the screws. "
What are the possible consequences of a particular political thaw?
Karbalevich"The new scenario of the election, which will present the government, aimed at solving the problem of foreign legitimacy. But do not risk the management team? Or would not have this new scenario unforeseen side effects? To here the script to retain power was simple and clear: bat at anything that moves. Now, whether the digest mode is a more complex game to which the system is not adapted? Gorbachev's perestroika began with such an innocent face of things today as publicity. As a result, she woke up such a force with which the then system was unable to cope? Do not repeat the situation in Belarus? Or it may happen that the man in the street, has been allowed to freely put their signatures for the opposition to come to the conclusion that we can, and go out on the street? "
ChausovThe contest "dictatorships make such a mistake. It gives little freedom, but this eventually leads to the fact that the mode drops. I think that the Belarusian regime will not fall during the election.
The scenario of the authorities is clear: to create external surroundings of democracy, and the result is the same as control. Yarmoshina announce the desired numbers. Such a game. Like, we're doing the scenery, and you are involved in this play. While all players play on prescribed roles. "
Klaskouski"The power of at least faces new challenges. She is forced to change the script for external legitimacy. Experts say that more than register the candidates, the easier to power, as the votes of the opposition electorate will be scattered. It is. But when they will perform for an hour on radio and television, plus the debate, there is strong opposition within. Therefore, the authorities will have to weigh how much to register.
Further, the percentage should get Lukashenko to meet the West? But the power falls into a trap. After all, the next parliamentary elections will be difficult to carry on a tight script, as this will cause a negative response.
Thus, the regime is entering a stage of subtle political game and it is a risk to the system, which is a fine game is not very calculated. "
Chausov"Sometimes theater bursts into life."