Anatoly Wasserman: Bright future will inevitably come. By 2020, the

24/10/2012

Information technology will become so advanced that can be planned economy



 

Live radio KP two smart people to discuss with the students, which goes beyond the human race.

Wasserman:

— Hello. Today our "Summerhouse" well-known journalist, founder of the Society of inevitability bright future Alex S. Krawiecka. I met with Alexey Sergeyevich the Internet with a rather interesting circumstances. In 1996, I published an article in which mathematically prove the impossibility of efficient production planning at the then information technology, and Alex S. has long denied this story, citing various methods of planning, but with it our joint analysis showed that in all these cases are resolved only partial tasks, rather than general, so in that sense I had, it seems, persuaded. But he persuaded me in the other. I came to the conclusion that the development of information technology will make the most routine management of an efficient market for all indicators by 2020. Since then, we jointly examine what a bright future that is to come, thanks, in part, information technology … I hope Alex, now you tell us more about what is at stake in this society.

Krawiecka

— I have to say that a bright future to reduce to only one of the planned economy, it would be incorrect. The planned economy — is a tool to achieve the proper structure of society, but only one of the few instruments, although, of course, very important. First of all, a bright future — is the relationship between people in general. These are the purposes for which they are oriented. If we look at modern society, it is certainly also have goals. It is interesting that when people are asked to describe how they imagined it would be something that could be called a bright future, many are defining it by what it is not. But, of course, the things that annoy, it is easier to list what are the things that I would like to see, but you've never seen. However, if we wanted to describe the picture more consistently, I would start by saying that would define those things that, in my opinion, we would like to reach humanity. For me the two key things are clear. First — this is a social justice, largely reflected in the fact that society is not deprived … But the most important thing — people have a decent standard of living to which they are not really thinking. And then their time is freed up for the second important things — namely — the knowledge and you may say, the conquest, such as space. Flying in space, deep-space research opportunities that we are given the science — natural, social. This thing many may seem a minor and not very interesting. Some would say that even science by scientists, but here's an interesting effect. When a person tries to do it, if it is beginning to turn out, he quickly realizes that everything else is much less interesting. It can be enjoyable, it can be entertaining, but the science in this case gives some global objective, global class, and everything else — it's like seasoning to it.

Wasserman:

— Strictly speaking, science is not really interested in all. I've seen enough people who, even after being abandoned by force of circumstances to science, refer to it only as a means of earning bread. Although in our present society in Russia of grain science, to put it mildly, did not earn, but in Soviet times, when science paid well, many go to her only as a bird feeder. So people who do not understand why they need a science, unfortunately, quite a lot, another thing is that these people can find their own things to do, so I'm talking about the development of the society, I prefer to use the more general term — self-improvement. Self-improvement and society, and every individual. Yet Karl Marx in his economic writings in 1844 said that society is better, the more developed than more free time for self-improvement it provides to every citizen. Later, Joseph Vissarionovich Dzhugashvili in 1952, the booklet "Economic Problems of Socialism in the USSR" said, and noted that the society should not only give free time, but also facilities for self-improvement. Schools, libraries, concert halls, sports halls, hobby groups, and so on. And, accordingly, self-improvement each person becomes a task of society as a whole. By the way, in the same paper, he calculated that socialism can be considered developed only when necessary labor time — that which is necessary for life support of society — will be reduced to 30 hours per week. But the rest of the time will be wasted on this very self-development and self-improvement.

Krawiecka

— Well, you're here correctly pointed out the other facets of the society's bright future — self-improvement, too, of course, a very important thing. True, when I am trying to describe here is the deal as a whole, I use the word a bit more — development. Why do I use the word 'development'? Self-improvement — is the training and preparation, too, of course, very important. The development involves not only training, but also still use the case in practice to what people have learned to do. If we take science, self-improvement — is to increase the level of their education and development as a whole includes also quite openly, building technology based on them, and so on. Naturally, I did not name the third important factor — it works, it is an activity that is a little less important in practice than science, but, nevertheless, it is valuable in itself. People are nice and helpful to be in an environment where there is a mass cultural values.

Often there are descriptions of a more progressive society, which is also someone calls a bright future, as a kind of penance hateful kingdom. That is, when all the people are engaged in productive work cleanly, it is nothing material, yes, if you look, and spiritual-is not particularly necessary. And this is seen the progress of mankind. Allegedly, the music — it's fun for some young and with the wind in the head. And the movie — it's fun for young … And the books — too … In my opinion, such a description in any gate not climbing. I do not see a bright future as a kind of kingdom of austerity, I see it as a harmonious existence of people with a common orientation towards human progress.

A call from Michael:

— Hello. It's about a brighter future. Do not you think that now is the reading of young people with all sorts of fantasy and so on, it is, in fact, an attempt to find some kind of a model of society that will be a bright future, because now our model of society is very reminiscent of the brothers Strugatsky, which rolled the space to reach out to all …

Krawiecka

— I largely agree with you. Only. I would then also made some clarifications. It's not so much a search for the device a bright future, it is rather a search for some kind of meaning in his present. Because, when the environment when the environment in which he exists, is a mechanical representation of some actions on the job, and then the mechanical performance of some action at home, she has on people is very depressing, he wants some kind of meaning , a purpose. Well, many are looking for it in fiction, someone else is fantasy. Man wants to live a parallel life, because now it has largely not satisfied. In my opinion, wrong.

A call from Yuri N.:

— Hello. What do you think, should not the people in their behavior just take the example of animals? In the wild, in my opinion, everything is harmonious and well arranged.

Wasserman:

— If you allow me, I will answer. The fact is that in the wild do things work in harmony. Rabbit eating grass, the wolf eats the rabbit, wolf corpse fertilizes the grass — all closed, things change only the power of natural evolution and everything is geared to the fact that everyone is eating all. So, because people are different from wolves with rabbits that can interact not only by vzaimopoedaniya, people, respectively, do not have to look to nature and build their nature. To the maximum extent adapted to exhibit the qualities that distinguish human beings from other animals.

Krawiecka

— I would still like to add. I was interested in this subject, as far as the mentality of the higher animals is similar to the human psyche. It turns out that the animals can be found in almost all the qualities that a person has — even altruism. But they are just in the infancy. The man is so quantitatively different in these qualities of the animals that we can talk about our quality of their difference. And for the existence of a natural person, I would not call harmonious. It's still a really great dinner — the natural life. The man still exist can be attributed to the dinner, but life will probably not be.

Wasserman:

— Well, quite difficult to do without lunch …

Call from Alexander:

— Hello. That's how we talk about society, humanity and its development, as you do not admit that, for example, there are people who have reached a certain level of development, and this world just, say, have not understood, they are not interested? Here, for example, we are ants. Here is the man to the anthill — well, poked a stick … there just is not interesting and ants, for example, a man and his world. Do not suppose you know how people would already have a certain development, which are just not interested to develop the rest of society, they have been living for some in his own world … These people are, in your opinion, are there? Or is it wishful thinking?

Krawiecka

— It's not quite a fantasy. However, the innate ability of different people is not so much different, so you can count them as far up as an ant and the man. Still in the development of talent helps, but it is not a substitute for training, it is not a substitute for education, etc. Therefore, any person, unlike the ant, in theory, can catch up with any other person.

Now the second part of the question. On the contrary, the view on the part of someone who is very well developed, the person who has not yet developed. Well, of course, if a person other than his intellectual abilities, yet for some reason there is a huge ego, he may be interested, then there is everybody else that it seems ants. However, in practice, people with quite a bit selfish, and most importantly, the development of modern, especially the development of the future, it will include a giant-scale projects. These projects are possible to implement only if they participate in a collective, group interaction, including, and in research. Therefore, a small club, consisting of five people, it simply, these projects do not master. Let them have great ideas that everyone else understands, but how do they explain it all the rest, and how this project can be brought to the final stage? And any project — to take a trip into space there to some star — well, tens of millions of people will be involved in this. Or is there some fundamental building a new power plant, which will take energy from the sun and located next to the sun at the same time. At the expense of billions will go. Club intellectuals simply shutting these projects never embody, they will stew in their environment, and this little proud of how smart they are — and all the real accomplishments they will not.

Wasserman:

— I remember that Aristotle Nikomahovich Stagirsky two and a half millennia ago, said a person — a social animal. This is usually interpreted in the sense that each of us brought up in a society, each of us learn from the society around, to the point, as there is a spoon and how to talk, but there is another aspect of the matter, which Alex S. Now touched. Namely — the division of labor increases productivity. Therefore, each of us in the community can do for others and, accordingly, receive from others much more than I could do and get alone. Therefore, a person, no matter how much he may have been developed, it is still profitable to remain a member of society. And those who do not understand, like those who call themselves now dolphins among anchovies, they are doomed to futility of all their steps.

Krawiecka

— Not only that interact favorably, favorable also to teach others. So that they understand your ideas, well, or at least to have someone to talk to.

Wasserman:

— The scope of training — it's a separate issue. I think we will go back to it at the next meeting.

Call of Constantine:

— Hello. I would like to ask a question. You were just talking about a small group of people known to be something going on, yes. And it was said that, in principle, they almost can not do anything. I think they can do the most important thing in this situation — they can be determined with the goals. For themselves and for the majority of people. And the people inferior to them in the development, be sure to go that way, where necessary. And that's too bad.

Wasserman:

— No, I must say that determine the goals for society as a whole can, as international experience shows that only a society as a whole. Moreover, in every society there is always a lot of small groups pushing their goals, but only one of them can match up with the sentiments of the whole society. This, incidentally, is very clearly seen in the revolutionary era, when at the same time there is a lot of parties, urging each to his own way, and then, when the revolution is over, analysts invariably state that won exactly the party whose position is most embodied the intention of the majority of society. Moreover, the intention of these existed in society long before the revolution.

Krawiecka

— And then, here's an interesting question — it has some of his goals. And what is the purpose of that society in general does not include a? What is the aim to buy a yacht? Well, yes, it will reach that goal. Eat at expensive restaurants? Well, yes, also to reach. And where it will be attached to the intelligence of the line? He also umnel not to simply delicious to eat?

Call of Vladimir Mikhailovich

— Good afternoon. What do you think is generally created mankind?

Wasserman:

— For me, as an atheist, it is clear that mankind is not created, but is created. And as a result, it creates a completely natural process, does not have any purpose. Therefore, the purpose — that is what we have set ourselves. And we should not talk about this, for which humanity is created, and where it should go.

Krawiecka

— Here I can also join to Anatoly Alexandrovich, but I'd still like to add more. Goals — is, in fact, what one feels in his head. I am so extremely oversimplified, it was clear what it was about. Atheist can say that here, this part of the brain that it dictates goal, she formed the evolutionary. Believer, if desired, can say that it is God through this part of the brain communicates with him. But, nevertheless, those and other physical situation is the same. They are someone who lives inside their heads, says that's what they want, what they want. That's the way a person perceives the target. Thus, if the goal in the outside world, alas, we have no way to know it, so we assume that it is not.

Call of Anatoli:

— Hello. I respect you for your work, for this is your way of thinking — it's all right … Unemployment should not be at all, everyone should handle themselves. It should not be in our state to pay extra to someone out there, this should not be. But please, I beg of you that's what — Convey it to Vladimir Vladimirovich and dear to our government — let them see the economy 50s, when we get out of this devastation, when we broke, broke, broke, and we have built a strong economy The world. And now it all fell apart … Really, they do not want to be good for the people? And for them, the same would be good too. And even though they command all my life, but let the people live, work, and let the people give to the people that it was independent — everyone. Why? Because that's when I was young — and the cups were, and we went to school the evening, all studied and worked, we kept circling. And we gave some plans, some innovation involved … All the young people were in work. Now what to do? After all, young people do not do anything. I beg of you — well, deliver you up to the government thought. Here's your lovely thoughts! And everything will go perfectly. In 3-4 years we will restore the economy and the people will live well!

Wasserman:

— Well, if Vladimir Vladimirovich invite me to talk, I'll tell him all this. But Dmitry Anatolyevich me for a conversation is unlikely to invite, because if not he himself, almost all of his entourage, including most of the current government, made up of people who firmly believe in the absolute freedom of the individual and therefore impossible to consider the existence of society.

Krawiecka

— The life which was described by our dear listeners in the 50s, in my opinion, really was a lot closer to that very harmonious existence, which, I hope, will we all. Mugs, work that is interesting, global goals, standing above society, education, theater — it is all the fullness of life, not just one piece of it. Some may be financially easier now, but in general we used to, in my opinion, were still closer to a brighter future.

Call from Igor:

— Hello. You have a very technocratic approach to social life … maybe that's just going back to your thesis that society has no purpose, it's just like going somewhere, locally there are any goals, locally they are canceled Well, here comes and goes — and thank goodness. But in this sense, as an example of Buddhism — that is, when a person is immersed in meditation, immersed — sank — well, okay. Came out of it — too well. Did not come out — no luck …

Wasserman:

— Well, a serious question. In a nutshell, we technocratic approach because both on basic education and education technology …

Krawiecka

— And about the purpose of their presence or absence, we had in mind, of course, that the goals have no physical reality in which there is a society. She did not fit in, that goal in the very structure of the universe. But the public, of course, can be, and usually even have a purpose. Moreover, the goal — this item, which in principle exists only in humans. If we talk about our technocratic we as technocrats, just understand that the computer — it's just a tool, it can not tell us where to go, what way and what we want. No, it is only the people can say. The computer can quickly calculate for us, in fact, it will quickly consider those algorithms that people come up with and, based on those criteria for assessing the effectiveness of the calculations that a man shall say to him. The man just stands there in the first place, and not a computer.

A call from Arthur:

— Hello. Tell me, should we overestimate our all, so to speak, the objectives in science and in life in general, as I see it, the further the progress as it goes to the impairment, at least in human health. I think that all goes to the fact that fewer people moving, feeling less full. And in this regard, all progress is aimed at ensuring that people did not move, sitting at home, in a confined space and all the amenities it would be as if filed. Perhaps we should overestimate the development of science in the study of the man himself, for, perhaps, the development of outer space, etc. And all about comfort, not whether it is somehow taboo, or what?

Wasserman:

— If you allow me, I will start from a distance. During the First World War the British Army found that following the introduction of helmets to protect the head, the number of wounds to the head has increased markedly. It seems to be strange. And yet, everything is understandable. Previously almost any hit in the head just to kill, but it is now only a wound. Similarly, the impression of massive reduction of health with the development progress arose primarily because progress now ensures the survival of those who had in similar circumstances just died. As for the study of anatomy, physiology, and other things, yes, they are, of course, exhaustively studied and in this case achieved tremendous progress. But the methods of medicine, the methods of sports training, which are now being implemented in practice, they achieved primarily through the development of an entirely different sciences. Roughly speaking, in order to advance to the disposable syringes needed to develop not only medicine, but also the chemistry and technology of polymers.

Krawiecka

— Even a simple example. If we take almost every age thousands of years before the present, life expectancy, at best, was 30 years old. Now in Europe, the average life expectancy of 80 years. With that, before many more died in infancy, and now most babies survive …

A call from Michael:

— Good evening. Anatoly, I always listen to you. That is sometimes the evening playing on your radio Chubais. You could not convincingly all his tricky word about what was or should be Russian, deny? We are with you because we know that all is not as it says …

Wasserman:

— You see, I'm not sure that it will be possible to arrange our meeting with him in the air, and it is not necessary. At the end of the day, and I have a lot of publications in other places besides meetings with Chubais, and my guest is also very well-known journalist. So you can just meet with performances Chubais, with performances Kravetskoto, with performances by Wasserman and decide who is right.

Call from Andrew:

— Hello. I think the main thing for all of humanity — is not self-destruct, do not self-destruct, we need to take care of our universe, our home … For here we are producing oil and gas, forest chop … The main thing to us — myself not to eat … That's what is thinking.

Wasserman:

— Of course. Well, it's not a goal, it is — the boundary condition. I mean, it's one of the walls of the corridor within which to us is wise to seek the target.

Krawiecka

— A necessary but not sufficient condition.

A call from Victor:

— Good afternoon. Right now comrade spoke and mentioned the name of Anatoly Chubais, I also heard it. Well, it is on the verge of fiction, everything he says is not true to say the least. Therefore, I believe that our young people everything he says, is to throw overboard. One more thing I want to say to you. In 1958, the Soviet Union in the city of Stavropol, where I live, in shops freely sold in wooden barrels black pressed caviar — 32 rubles per kilogram. Tomatoes cost 7 cents, cucumbers — 3 pennies. Meat — 13 rubles per kilogram. And here I would like to ask these wise men today who pontificate, how our country for 13 years after the war in 1958 was already at a level of abundance of all things? I'm not talking about bread, about the oil …

Krawiecka

— I, unfortunately, I can not answer for those people who are invited to ask this question. Moreover, I am the same question that people ask when the event … The only more or less sensible answer that I got, more precisely, two answers I received. First — this is all hype and not true (but it is not the answer, is a departure from the answer, we do know that it's true). A second answer — but there was no freedom (which for me is also very strange and peculiar response).

Wasserman:

— I will only add that there should not blame one Chubais. Unfortunately, we were not so lucky Streak country was ruled by a few, to put it mildly, incompetent leaders. And just as the three consecutive catastrophically lean years have led to the fall of the wonderful on all counts of Tsar Boris Godunov, from which now remains in memory only that it slandered his political opponents, as well as three consecutive crop failures have led to the fall of the head of the Soviet Union. Of which is still, fortunately, in the memory remains not only the fact that complaints against him political opponents. It is hoped that the relevant heads sooner or later will lead to a fruitful year.

Call from Dmitry:

— Hello. I know you for a long time and have watched many times … You seem to be a good man, and I'll tell you a story. I'm from a family of raskazachennyh Soviets. It's in the 30's it was. My great-grandfather was evicted in Siberia, in Narym in summer clothes. Bowlers dug dugout. Five children they had. Two children died of tuberculosis. My grandfather was lame from me and he lived more than 90 years. When I was born, I found my great-grandfather's alive and he told me a lot. And show it. We are from rural Cossacks occur, we grown wine and wheat. We had two plots of land on 5 acres …

Wasserman:

— I'm sorry, we broadcast ends already, so we are, if you will, back to you …

Krawiecka

— The fact is that there are, of course, everyone will feel sorry for their relatives. And if the relatives have suffered, regardless of whether it was true, it will be from this wrong, but society as a whole is important statistics, not specific people. If the statistics show that, in principle, most people feel better, of course, we will spare those who are worse, but we can not give up for the sake of the more progressive device.

Wasserman:

— And I would add that, according to calculations that my colleagues and I have spent in recent years, a new transition to the very bright future can be done peacefully, so that no one was hurt. We are very sorry for those who have fallen victim to in the first place, the fact that we as a country have gone on unknown path, the path we now know better and try to get around the grave. Well, now it's time to say goodbye. All the best.

 

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