Engineer accurately predicts accidents and disasters, but he did not believe

18/10/2012

From St. Petersburg Alexander Zakharov — an engineer who calls himself the crisis analyst for more than twenty years of experience in forecasting emergencies.


Natural and man-made disasters have become regular. Rescue operations require more than a billion dollars a year. Now, if it were possible to anticipate misfortune — no matter how many lives saved, how much money saved up!

Alexander Zakharov evaluates the success of its activities from 95 to 98% accurate hits. Given the fact that it is much less difficult task of weather forecasts has credibility, not to exceed 65%, self-esteem of the Prophet should be recognized incredibly high. However, an important test results and if his predictions were engaged, it was only sporadically and individual agencies. So what are the objective facts?

In late June, Zakharov posted on the website warning: 4 to 12 July will be severe floods in the North Caucasus or in the Krasnodar region, Yakutia, the Altai. July 3 at the St. Petersburg TV channel 100, he confirmed the forecast.

July 4th in the Krasnodar region started torrential rains in the next few days, had the three-five-month rainfall, floods in the Crimean region affected 24,000 people in Gelendzhik — 7000, the total number of victims — 172 people.

July 10 in the TV show "X-version. Other news "on the national channel TV-3, he said (and repeated on July 13) on the new flood zone from 15 to 25 August in the same areas of the Krasnodar region, which suffered in July. 22th Novomikhailovskoye flooded village.

In June, the crisis has sent the head analyst at the Federal Air Transport Agency Alexander Neradko in response to his request crashes forecasts for the second half of the year. September 12 was listed as one of the most dangerous days. That same day, in the north of Kamchatka crashed AN-28 aircraft.

How can respond to these forecasts stakeholders?

Usually — no way. March 10, 2011, three days before the nuclear disaster at Fukushima, Zakharov has brought their schedules to the office of the regional offices of MES and gave the attendant a receipt. On the eve of the Polish plane crash near Smolensk, he came to the Consulate General of Poland and transferred its materials, convincing: it is necessary, they say, do something …


You will become famous — come


Its know-how explorer does not open. The essence of his explanation is that every disaster is accompanied by the release of enormous energy that builds up, and there are signs that point to its concentration. As fever indicates hidden from the eyes of inflammation in the body, and the mass deaths of birds, floating dead fish, the disappearance of bees, the release of whale strandings and other ecological trouble giving forecaster disasters material for system analysis. With a total interconnectedness of all phenomena in nature there is nothing casual even aircraft tail number and the name of the ship are for Zakharov input for the forecast.

Understanding of how long-term forecasts Zakharova, there is not just me.

One day we visited with him the General Administration of Emergency Situations and Civil Defense in St. Petersburg. We were received by deputy Vladimir Tyra.

— What we need is not a forecast of dangerous days at all — he said to my companion — and specifically where, when and what will happen.

— But this requires teamwork — retorted Forecaster — your statistics, the raw data on interesting objects.

— We — not-for-profit organization, we work on this resource is not provided. You have already checked the fire protection and emergency management institute of the Government of St. Petersburg. But somewhere gave way people work somewhere stalled. Therefore, there are no results.

Saying goodbye, Vladimir Zakharov, Tyra wanted the recognition and expressed hope for new meetings. Like, the guy is making headway, but when you recognize, come, maybe we will use yours achievements.

But … do not even have to be a forecaster to accurately say, such an approach will not be better.

I was required to personally test the ability of Zakharov. September 26, he wrote me a forecast for the first week of October. Briefly, they are: from 1 to 8 October, will be the collapse of man-made disasters, including a few drops of aircraft. All week I've been tracking the news. Bottom line: the 1st plane crashed near Anapa and in Switzerland, 6th — in Sudan. In the same week, there were floods in Spain, stloknulis ships in Hong Kong, people were poisoned in Irkutsk and in Germany, burned oil refinery in Saratov and food plant in Novgorod region, in China landslide destroyed a school in California faced 47 cars.

In fairness should stipulate doubt the high accuracy of the forecasts Zakharova I still remain:


a) He noted 1, 4 and 8 October as the most catastrophic days. In reality, this was the only day on October 1, and the rest — the usual for this week;

b) The scale of these events still different: if we ignore the fires, which have suffered relatively few, we average the picture;

c) What is the overall "average" background disasters — maybe before and after the selected week happens about the same (for example, Sep 29. fired plant in Ugra, the fire, according to reports, is stronger than all of October), what is the general criterion differences accidents to accidents? If you enter it, it may be that in the beginning of October there were no accidents;

g) Zakharov assured that after a tragic week starting from October 9 until the end of the month resonant incident is no more. However, in the days that followed were exploding artillery shells in Orenburg, heavy rains have killed residents of Derbent …

With all these reservations, the accuracy of the forecast of October can not achieve the declared value of 95%.

These my questions answered Alexander Maratovich: detail scale accidents — separate the big question that we simply do not have the opportunity to discuss the relatively small space of a newspaper, all of October is generally more full of incidents than the previous month, because, they say, unpleasant events continue to occur.

Further clarification of the situation in October, according to Zakharov, is this: days of local disasters will be October 15 and five days from 18 to 22 October — could be earthquakes, landslides, torrential streams, fires, explosions, accidents in transport.

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