Deep cuts in Russian Armed Forces, which led to a decrease in their fighting abilities, in particular, are very affected Navy (the fate of the Northern Fleet told in the newspaper "military-industrial complex», № 2, 2013). In this regard, the Black Sea Fleet was in a particularly weighty situation. Played a role not only neobmyslennye "reform", and the patient is the process of determining the status of Russian heritage and its partition between the new are independent states — Russia and Ukraine. With the collapse of the Russian Union of Russian Black Sea fleet lost most of the shipbuilding and repair companies. A significant part of his ship structure vsepolnotsenno now unable to solve puzzles by appointment. Together, an analysis of the current international situation shows that military tension on the southern border of Russia built up the highest rate.
According to the views of a number of professionals remains the possibility of World War II, which, of course, is inevitable in the Black Sea region. At any moment there could erupt smoldering or flaming new armed conflicts that could add fuel to the fire of the world. The threat of destabilization of the situation in the areas adjacent to the borders of Georgia with Abkhazia and South Ossetia. After the defeat of the aggressor in August 2008, using the support of the United States, Israel and other guardians of Tbilisi, was able to make up for the potential of its own armed forces and is ready to make the latest attempt by the military to "restore its territorial integrity." There is a war against a sovereign Syria. Using international terrorists and political adventurers, the West and the Islamic fundamentalists who claim to establish an Islamic caliphate, are fighting against the legitimate Syrian government. In Washington and Tel Aviv do not stop on the necessity for ever by what method, including the power tools, to suspend Iran's nuclear program from.
All these processes make a real danger of the country being drawn into military conflicts in the region. The Black Sea Fleet as part of the Navy is an important means of ensuring security of the Russian Federation to the south. Will he be able to solve the tasks assigned to it to protect Russian interests in the Black Sea?
We estimate the Battle of the Black Sea Fleet. According to open sources, at the beginning of 2013 in this strategic formation consists of two submarines and 41 surface ships. Naval aviation consists of 34 aircraft and 40 helicopters for various purposes.
As part of the submarine forces have only two submarines — one 877 "Varshavyanka" and one 641B "Catfish". The first of them in the ranks and is capable of solving tasks assigned to it. The fate of the second is not defined. It is in continuous complete refit. By today's standards, her fighting ability is very low, and the need to return to the system is not clear. Additionally means entering into the composition of the Naval Association 2-submarines of Project 877, which must be transferred from the Northern Fleet.
Base surface forces are the guided-missile cruiser (GRKR) "Moscow", a large anti-submarine ship "Kerch", three frigates, four small missile ship, seven small antisubmarine ships, 11 minesweepers, seven large landing ships, six missile boats.
Military significance in the naval aviation has 18 ground attack aircraft (by ordering the Navy, almost — bombers) Su-24M, 4 to 7 seaplanes ASW aircraft Be-12, one electronic warfare aircraft An-12FR and four scout Su-24MR.
Helicopter fleet consists of 30 ships Ka-27PL anti-submarine and eight helicopters, electronic warfare based on the Mi-8.
An important component of the coastal defense troops is a separate coastal missile and artillery brigade, consisting of three mobile missile regiment (armed coastal antiship missile systems "Redoubt" and "Frontier") and Coast mobile artillery battalion (130-mm artillery system "Coast").
Marines are represented by a separate regiment.
The state of the Black Sea naval fleet is much better and the North Pacific. This is based on suitable climatic criteria and the availability of infrastructure and ship repair facilities at the main base of association — Sevastopol.
Yet 20 to 50 percent of the fleet of ships in need of repair (current, average, or severe) and for solving the problems are unfit for its intended purpose or suitable limited.
Disposition of the Black Sea fleet can imagine that by the number of combat-ready ships distant sea and ocean areas include GRKR "Moscow" and two frigates.
Among the ships near sea area may be combat-ready till 2 small missile ships, up to 4 small anti-submarine ships, minesweepers to 7, and 5 large amphibious assault ships and up to 4 missile boats.
At the current time, the fleet is only one deployable submarine.
The situation with the Planes and helicopters are unlikely to better the overall situation in the Russian Air Force. Because it is conceivable that in the Black Sea in the applicable aircraft are able to fly up to 12 Su-24M, up to 3 seaplanes Be-12, Up to 2 Su-24MR reconnaissance, up to 18 Ka-27PL helicopters and up to 5 REB.
With the outbreak of hostilities, the Black Sea Fleet will conduct interaction with the 51st Air Defense Corps, which is common air defense system covers the base, basing points and naval forces in their own area of responsibility. From its membership for this purpose can be allocated to 2-fighter regiments (50-60 machines Su-27 and MiG-29) and up to 2-air missile regiments.
To solve the problems of struggle with large surface ships possible enemy fleet can be supported by the forces of up to 2-distant aviation squadrons.
On the basis of the existing ship structure and taking into account the coefficient of peacetime operational voltage (from the experience of Russian Navy — 0.25) Black Sea Fleet has a very limited capacity to provide support to the foreign policy of the Russian Federation and the implementation of its international obligations, including the fight against piracy.
Under appropriate criteria association may perform less than 1 hike for a half or two years of naval groups of up to 3 combat and support ships led by the guided missile cruiser, also a two-year campaign in the 1st patrol or large landing ship for without the help of others, and with one or two support vessels. To maintain the appropriate operational mode in the near-sea area once a year can be made up to 6 outputs ship groups of up to 3 small anti-submarine ships or trawlers. It can be stated that the naval association without the help of others to provide a solution imposed on him unable peacetime.
Trends in the development of international situation in the area of responsibility of the fleet dictate increasing the intensity of his campaigns in the three ships — 5 times depending on the degree of tension.
This can be achieved by carrying out the required amount of repair work with the commissioning of ships and support vessels of the fleet, as building ships, first submarine forces.
With the outbreak of hostilities, the Black Sea Fleet will be able to generate:
clude up to 2-ship battle group of small missile ships, till 2 battle groups missile boats and 18 aircraft attack aircraft fleet, as missile and artillery units shore Fleet Forces;
Promoting the maritime flank army navy forces will be able to produce Marine Regiment and 7 amphibious ships, capable of landing on unequipped coast till 2 battalions of Marines.
These forces are in a state during the first weeks of combat actions (if suitable criteria)
At the current time in the region, only Turkey has a fleet capable of excellent resist Russia. The analysis of the emerging here politico-military situation leads to the conclusion that there are two options being drawn into a war in our country, in which the Black Sea Fleet will have to solve puzzles to repel external military aggression. It is probable confrontation with separately taken by the Turkish side, or with NATO as a whole.
The possibility of a military confrontation with Turkey, the Russian Federation without connecting to a completely hypothetical Alliance exists. This can happen amid escalating military conflict in one of the hottest points in the Caucasus or the Middle East. Already, Moscow and Ankara have severe differences in the positions on how to resolve the Syrian confrontation. There are at Russian side their interests in Cyprus, which Turkey does not fully comply with the position relative to the resolution of the Cyprus problem. Our homeland and Turkey have different views on the Karabakh issue. With all of this the role of NATO in these conflicts is not obvious.
Because the enemy's Black Sea Fleet may be only the Turkish Navy, which accounted for 15 submarines, 19 frigates with guided missiles, and 25 trawlers and 20 missile boats. These forces are likely to be supported by tactical aircraft. Of the 440 strike aircraft for the Turkish Air Force operations against ships and objects of the Russian Navy in the Black Sea could be involved and more than 100 cars.
Comparing the ability of fleets, one can imagine that in the course of the war the Turks lost their heads up to 20 percent of their own surface ships and boats, and up to 15 percent of submarines.
With all of this decline will be on the Russian side of the main classes of ships and boats — up to 30 percent, the U-boats — up to 50 percent, aviation — up to 40 percent of the troops and shore — up to 50 percent. In other words, by the end of the first week of fighting the loss of the Black Sea fleet can achieve critical value, while the Turkish Navy will maintain its combat capability. Problem gain advantages even in the coastal zone for Russia will be more difficult.
In the event of a conflict verbovaniya NATO is likely to Dark Sea will ship group (more than 3 battle groups cruiser class ships DMG / destroyer URO), which is supported by the forces of the U.S. Navy carrier-based aircraft (two aircraft carrier battle groups) from the area of the Eastern Mediterranean. The Black Sea Fleet will not be able to put severe damage to the enemy, he having suffered the loss for which loses its value as a random association.
After that, the opposing side will be able to smoothly solve puzzles landing tactical and even operational landings on the Black Sea coast of Russia or its allies, to strike with the direction of the sea on the facilities of the Armed Forces and the country's economy.
The analysis indicates that the current composition of the Black Sea Fleet is unable to solve puzzles to protect the interests of the Russian Federation and the reflection of the military aggression on the south.
What to do?
From the spoken imposed a trivial conclusion: we must significantly improve the combat capability of the Black Sea Fleet.
Certain success can be achieved by renovating existing ships, which will allow to increase the number of combat-ready ships to 85-90 percent. Need to quantitatively and qualitatively increase the composition of submarine forces until at least 11-12 of modern submarines. Necessity being the part of the naval association GRKR "Moscow" is questionable. In the event of hostilities this ship ocean and distant sea area will be locked in a closed maritime theater, where his ability to strike on compounds large surface objects completely fail to be implemented. The number of major classes of ships should increment up to 10-12 units by transferring them to other areas or construction of new ones.
Significant changes have occurred in the aviation component. Necessary to increment two to three times the amount of ground-attack aircraft, and to include in its membership more than 1 fighter regiment. This is justified by the small size Black Theater, where he will surely be a crucial role to play Air Force. Only the principal is to increase the abilities of anti-submarine aircraft. Available aircraft Be-12 can not beat perfectly with modern low-noise submarines. Therefore an urgent need to be completion and adoption of anti-aircraft complex of the A-40 with the following inclusion of the aviation fleet of more than 20 of these machines. Principally to increase intelligence aircraft until at least 12-14 Su-24MR.
The implementation of these measures will increase the combat capabilities of Black Sea fleet and will allow it to fully protect the interests of the Russian Federation in the region.
This should be done because the delicate sand and round stones can at any moment become hot. There is something …