Climate change on Earth may not only be gradual, but sudden, abrupt. The probability of such a development, and their catastrophic require extraordinary measures. In some cases, emergency measures will also include the use of military force. This is the main conclusion of the report, "Weather Report: 2010-2020" , prepared by professional futurologists for the Ministry of Defense in 2003. So remote in time the date of the development of the document does not make it any less relevant today — in fact, the events can clearly see that much of the forecast has come true.
Experts argue that global climate change could completely destabilize the political situation not only in a particular region, but also the world at large. Mention of it is likely scenarios such as hunger in Europe and the leading powers of competition for scarce freshwater resources.
In its forecasts authors — Peter Schwartz and Douglas Randall — based on the fact that as a result of global geophysical processes of the situation on the surface can drastically change — change the nature of ocean currents, which in turn would change the planet's climate.
According to scientists, the Earth has gone through something like 8,500 years ago. More recently (in historical terms) was the so-called small glaciers, which lasted roughly from 1300 to 1850. Due to the deteriorating weather conditions, the Europeans had to leave Greenland Viking civilization was altogether lost. Only in the period from 1315 to 1319 years. famine has killed tens of thousands of people, the report said. These figures are especially tragic because, in those years, the world population was much smaller than this one, and just put a significant loss to the brink of the very existence of humanity.
Despite the significant growth of scientific knowledge about weather and climate in general, hydrology Oceans and geophysics tectonic processes in the interior of the earth's surface, humanity today is still helpless before the power of the forces of nature. This is, in particular, by the tragic events in Japan. Japanese scientists were able to determine the time and place of an earthquake just 12 minutes before the tragedy, prevent it when it was impossible.
The number of the current world population approaching the point beyond which our planet will not be able to feed everyone. Already, hundreds of millions of people are starving, many millions have no access to drinking water. Such a strong dependence of large numbers of people from the consequences of climate change is becoming a real threat. So, according to some experts, trigger a succession of revolts in North Africa and is known as the Great Arab Revolution, became negative developments on the world grain market: the rise in grain prices led to a significant rise in the cost of food and, as a result, a new round of inflation that was excessive burden for the poor population, and so the countries of North Africa. The situation on the world grain market reflected the harsh climatic conditions of the summer of 2010, when a large number of suppliers of grain on the world market at the mercy of drought and subsequent famine.
It so happens that today five key countries — producers of grain — the U.S., Argentina, Australia, Russia, China and India. Any reduction in production in these countries due to climatic changes or other reasons lead to a significant and a spike in cereal prices and, as a consequence, increase the cost of many food products. In such circumstances, significant and long-lasting climate change can lead to the movement of large masses of people who will seek refuge in less affected areas of land. But the local population in these areas will not be happy this influx of migrants — in the background of the conflict in the medium term.
The study authors noted that similar trends in the situation in the world may be another driver of the collapse of the current system of global relations. If today the world is arguing about what measures should be taken to bring the world economic system of the protracted crisis and how to get rid of the bubble unsecured dollars, tomorrow this debate will go away in time — abrupt climate change will leave no choice but to tough regionalization of countries in order to survive and when the threat of confrontation.
According to the forecasts of the situation has worsen in Europe. Europe will face serious food shortages due to climate change — the climate here will be colder, drier, windier and become more like the climate of Siberia. European winters become the Siberian cold, and the summer — dry. Similar changes will lead to an almost complete drought in China and, as a consequence, widespread famine and the mass exodus of people in more suitable for living areas.
Best of all, as the authors suggest that future changes will take America, although there are major changes in soil fertility in the direction of its sharp decline. However, the U.S. will not be able to stay away from the world's vicissitudes. First of all, before the United States will rise to the threat of a possible conflict countries such as India, China, Pakistan. These countries will be most affected by the abrupt climate change. Agriculture in them will be destroyed, and the relative level of biotechnology are not allow to organize adequate food by artificial means.
The result of these events will be massive migration flows of millions of people across Eurasia to Europe, where they will inevitably be faced with the same flow of the outgoing European population. At this stage, the struggle for living space will involve in its turnover and American continents.
Describing similar experiences of our future, the authors point out that in the new environment will be a variety of possible configurations of countries and geopolitical alliances: yesterday's opponents will be forced to unite in the fight for survival.
As for Russia, the country plans to play American futurologists one of the major sites. According to U.S. experts, rich in minerals, oil and natural gas, Russia will remain in this new world, a kind of oasis, which will be surrounded by hostile and hungry neighbors.