Second anniversary of the signing of the Kharkiv agreements has once again demonstrated the instability of bilateral relations between Ukraine and Russia. As soon as the Ukraine elections looming, all you can often hear the expression for the revision of the Kharkiv agreements signed in 2010. The ratio of the Ukrainian side to Moscow is becoming more confrontational nature. If in the past year, the smallest rumor about the ability of the revision of the treaties were perceived as stupidity, today the situation has changed dramatically: in the corridors of the Ukrainian authorities are increasingly rising to the topic.
And the main reason for these configurations is quite prosaic: Russian gas. In order to show the harsh RF own purposes and to express dissatisfaction with the criteria prescribed in the contract, and held a show trial of former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. Now the official Kiev begins to seek lower prices of blue fuel to the amount which he considers to be fair.
It is not necessary to think long to realize what specifically should be a "pawn" in this game. Russian The Black Sea Fleet — is a kind of bargaining chip, around which everything began.
Ukrainian opposition political forces are convinced that everything that happens clearly shows that the forecasts are beginning to be realized that part of the population, which from the beginning was very skeptical about this kind of agreement. First unambiguous hints as to what our home even has ideas Ukraine as an equal partner, does not address the desire of the Ukrainian side to build good neighborly affairs, there is a year after the signing of the Kharkiv agreements. And this is reflected, first, in the refusal to allow assist the socio-economic problems that have emerged through the fault of the Black Sea Fleet. Plus, the added prepyadstviya and political nature.
According to the views of the opposition, despite the fact that Dmitry Medvedev has once declared that Sevastopol as the main base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet will be given a special socio-economic assistance to the real moment of this support was expressed in a very specific way.
With all this, they mention that the debt before the Russian Black Sea Fleet Sevastopol city budget is about 20 million hryvnia, of their contributions to the pension fund is about 6990 thousand hryvnia, and the rest of the amount — it's tax debts. In the Russian national currency, this amounts to 92 million rubles. As a result, staff "Lazarev Admiralty," which makes the rehabilitation and support of the technical condition of the ships for a couple of years does not receive money earned. At the current time the debt on wages is around 4.3 million hryvnia.
In addition, the Russian Black Sea Fleet management has the responsibility and duty to one another — it is so far not settled with the locals on programmke equity role in the construction of an apartment house on the street Astana Kesaeva. Despite the investment, Sevastopol expect the promised housing is not the first year.
More mystical, in the views of the opposition, look for today and the expectations of local government about Russian businessmen deposit growth in the infrastructure of the town, even despite the fact that the Russian side declared the successful overcoming the consequences of the economic crisis. In contrast, the level of investment in comparison with 2010, the last year fell by a quarter.
Some Ukrainians believes that now is the main feature of the Kharkov agreements is the emergence of problems of political nature, namely, gas relations. Already it is no secret that the Russian administration has resorted to the gas issue in those cases where there is a need to Kiev Bole agreeable to those issues that are in one or another period of time is a priority for Moscow. And the Ukrainian administration keeps up with their own Russian counterparts, resorting on granting leases Russian Black Sea Fleet in the Crimea, when Moscow openly asks "obedience" and "bottom" is either a different matter. So Makar, politics became the basis of peer pressure Kharkiv agreements and maintained to the present.
The opposition also they say that, as the Ukrainian side made a few mistakes in 2010 for "rent in exchange for gas," it is clear that she had to find new ways to persuade Russia to agree to provide additional discounts on this "product . " Moscow has agreed, but claimed the role of Ukraine in the Customs Union which is under the control of its concrete. In addition, and received another offer: to reflect on, to take part in a joint military-political alliance. And as long as Kiev did not give a specific answer, the Russian government has renewed the sample to keep the situation in the Ukraine under its control.
So, in 2011, the area of Crimea, two Russian soldiers (special services) have made an attempt to acquire listening devices, but did so through a worldwide network of course mindful of the stunning scandal in 2009, when the Ukrainian-Russian border was detained one of the Russian secret service officials with similar equipment. But for some reason booked it straight to the Ukraine, for what, in effect saying, and paid the price: both received 4.5 years of imprisonment.
In addition, some opposition politicians say in the Russian Black Sea Fleet resumed its operations department of information and psychological warfare. Also been enhanced ability to spread propaganda. So, was increased circulation of the newspaper "The flag of the motherland", which is considered to be the creator of the Ministry of Defense. And has been renewed edition of the newspaper "Russian Community of Sevastopol." It is published as before the printing of Black Sea Fleet. But the newspaper newspaper, nothing wrong in that no, if not a "but," they say in opposition: it promoted ethnic hatred, and heard repeated calls for adherence to Sevastopol Russia.
And they note that the Russian activists have a large arsenal of forms and methods of implementation of the foreign policy of the Russian Federation with regard to Ukraine.
As for the representation of professionals, then they, too, have developed different ideas about what to whom these agreements were profitable. Thus, according to V.Karaseva, director of the Institute for Global proclamations, RF Kharkov agreements were profitable from the standpoint of strategy, as have allowed to extend right up to the Black Sea Fleet in 2042, whereas under the previous agreement, he had to leave the Ukraine in 2017. For Ukraine — is a tactical victory, as such Makarov was made an attempt to get a one-time discount in the gas issue. Analysts believe that the two sides have different views on the effectiveness of agreements, since any of them pursued quite different goals.
In addition, the expert added that he was sure would soon arise from Ukraine claims regarding the discrepancy of rent, and similar aspects that are not legally regulated. At the same time, the analyst believes that the signing of the Kharkiv agreements needed to both countries, as it has given little opportunity to stabilize relations between them.
According to the views of Ukrainian professional V.Baly after the inauguration of the new Russian president sides can sit down at the negotiating table at the lower prices for natural gas. And on the part of the Russian Federation would be strategically concede i
n the price issue, if Ukraine agrees to support the role of the Customs Union, since only in this case will be the probable realization of plans concerning Putin's massive reconstruction of the country within the framework of the Russian Federation (which formerly bore the title of the Soviet Union and had a huge impact on the political and economic processes in the world).
Russian Expert M.Nenashev little more optimistic in their own conclusions on the impact of the agreements. It states that benefit from the signing of the contracts received by both parties. It is worth remembering only the growth of trade turnover between with 2 states, which headed for 40 billion dollars. At the same time, he noted that the Russian government is concerned about the fact that the Ukrainian side strongly hinders finding Russian Black Sea Fleet in Crimea.
He also noted that the Yanukovych regime did not become more suitable for Russian sailors in the Crimea than in the years of Yushchenko's presidency. But all who supported the new powers, such as immediately and saw that no one is going to abolish the laws, which were signed in the past regime, and in fact they are to a large extent complicate the life of Russian military. It is, namely, the rules of the relocation of equipment and personnel, and did not address the issue of providing them flats, which were built at the expense of the city budget. In addition, the Ukrainian side to all requests to the same registration fee for each of the military, which arrives at the service of the Crimea.
From all spoken clearly shows that the new regime listens intently and adopts the word enemies stay Russian Black Sea Fleet, the main reason of concern "against" which is a statement that the contents of it to the Ukrainian countryside is not enough to give, but Ukraine can lose a lot (here like be the case is referred to the possibility of an armed conflict in Iran, which can be dragged and Ukraine, if you do not give up the Russian lease).
Both parties are well aware that the revision of the Kharkov agreements entirely probable, especially if in Ukraine after the elections will come to power opposition. For Russia the development of the action is hardly better, well, maybe it will not contribute to the strengthening of relations. According to the views of the Center of the CIS manager diplomatically Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation S. Zhiltsova, revision of contracts will have bad consequences. It took quite a lot of time from the date of signing. And if every time one or the other to review the contract, then the development of bilateral relations will be possible to put a big fat cross.
Because the situation and Ukrainian, and Russian government is weighed approach to the dilemma of the own responsibilities for the Kharkiv agreements, as even at this point it is clear that this would be very not easy, even more so in light of the change of power in the Russian Federation.