Inflation in Belarus at the end of the year could reach 133-139%, the number of poor will be doubled, and the government offers to freeze the growth rate of the first tariff category. This was reported today by Deputy Economy Minister Andrei Tur, who addressed a joint session of both chambers of the National Assembly.
Minister of Economics Nicholas Snapkou, According to deputies, on a business trip in China. Therefore the general characteristics of the economic and financial situation in Belarus made Andrei Tur:
"To be honest, the situation is quite complicated. We have a sharp devaluation triggered inflation. And with inflation rather large. By the end of the year, when the situation on the currency market will be stable (National Bank promises to trading band of 10-12%), then the inflation rate, depending on what everyone expects around 133-139%. "
That's four times more than what the government had promised when he said about a possible increase in inflation over the entire 2011 in the range 108-109%.
Measures for the social protection of the population, which is also now said Andrei Tur, obviously, the loss of the population does not completely compensate.
In addition, flat rate first class decided not to raise. This restriction does not really allow to raise public sector wages. For them, according to the Tour, "include the indexing mechanism." But this aid, according to the Ministry of Economics, will be 130-170 thousand per month, Andrei Tur said.
"According to our calculations … journalists present, but okay. So, it is very important for us to the end of the year, in fact kept our real level of purchased options. And pensions and salaries, and scholarships, which were in the beginning. Not increased, but only at least saved. "
However, these calculations economist Michael Zaleski calls "the optimistic delusion":
"What is — 5% of the poor? Yes we now have 45-50% of the poor. Because if you look at the structure of the family budget, it is those people who are more than three-quarters of its budget spent on pure consumption — food and utilities. And let everyone thinks in his home. If you go out less, then you are already a wealthy man.
Second — what inflation will be 133-139%. As far as I know, in the bowels of the Ministry of inflation predicted greater. But because they threatened her finger out of the presidential administration, that they did not write a lot, do not scare people. See figure will rise in price by 50%, sugar — 40%. And it's not one heading. It will be pulled upward. "