November 12, communicating with the residents of Borisov, Alexander Lukashenko said: "No, we do not plan to devaluation." He added that the issue was raised, "charlatans, for which, the worse the country, the better for them." Do today devaluation of the Belarusian economy? Can the authorities to the weakening of the national currency, even recognizing the need for such a step? These questions are answered by a financial analyst Sergei Chaly.
Tsigankov: How relevant is the current exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble tasks Belarusian economy, its export potential? In other words, we need the devaluation of the Belarusian economy?
Roan: It is clear that the nominal exchange rate is overvalued. This is understandable, and is expressed as a chronic negative balance of foreign trade — in September this difference was a billion dollars. Naturally, in this situation is a negative balance indicates that the present course is not advantageous for the economy. It leads either to an increase in foreign debt or the loss of foreign exchange reserves is to maintain such a course.
So it would make sense to say that the devaluation was not as many opportunities as would be desirable for our economy.
Tsigankov: There may, however, the government now to devalue — and from the point of view of political (presidential elections), and from the point of view of the psychological (as it will affect the behavior of the people)?
Roan: It seems to me that the good political solutions are not. In fact, we went back to the situation that preceded the last devaluation. We have a de facto fixed exchange rate and high domestic inflation, which will only become higher due to the 50 percent increase in salaries for this year. This only increases the potential devaluation in the future.
So that the devaluation would be desirable, but, on the other hand, carry it without great losses already very difficult. If it do so, as it was then, at the beginning of 2009, it may be mentioned, as it had for six months to return confidence in the national currency and bank deposits in rubles. A second time it will be even harder to do.
Tsigankov: It turns out that the government is very little room to maneuver. But they will have to do something?
RoanYes, of course. I think the only possibility here — to collaborate with the IMF to have a way to get extra funding for the maintenance of international reserves. In the event of possible speculative attacks and wilted that unwanted and unnecessary either to the authorities or the public. Yes strive to switch to another mode of formation of the exchange rate, as it is clear that long in such a situation, we do not hold out. After all, would have to increase the debt, and sooner or later, do the devaluation, but in much worse conditions.