Georgia faces the danger of fragmentation of the upcoming

Georgia faces the danger of impending fragmentation. After the August 2008 war and Russia's recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the process of disintegration of the Georgian country may obtain the future development. The country can once again be active centers of various separatism.

Moreover, it is not even on the conventional problem of the southern regions of the country, where ethnic minorities live compactly Georgia — Armenians and Azerbaijanis. They are autonomous and separatist sentiments are not supported from Azerbaijan and Armenia. This removes the possibility of exacerbation of the situation fields Javakheti and Kvemo Kartli at some time. A strong separatist sentiment in several western Georgian regions of the country, for example, in Samegrelo (Samegrelo) and Svaneti.

Both of these historical regions are located in the west of the country of Georgia, adjacent to Abkhazia. They are distinguished by the fact that the local population (Mingrelians-Megrels and Svans) uses in their daily lives languages — Megrel and Svan, which differ from the literary Georgian language. Prior to the 1926 census Svans Megrels number of individual nations, but with the 1930s they began to include a number of Georgians.

In the middle of academic linguists, both in Georgia, and in the world actually had the unanimous perception that Megrel and Svan languages are dialects of the Georgian language. These are separate languages, but they are included in the Kartvelian language family. If you examine the history of the last few centuries these areas, we can see that the vast majority of Svan and Megrelians, a voice only in their own languages, and the Georgian language in varying degrees, had only the upper classes — nobles and clergy. This situation was right up the middle of the XIX century, and in some rural towns — right up to the middle of the XX century.

Integration processes in the 19th and especially the 20th century — the economic and cultural development of the region, population movements, etc., have led to what appeared bilingualism. Official sphere, education, literature, the media functioned in Georgian and Russian (before the collapse of the Soviet Union) languages.

But after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and especially in the 2000s Tbilisi pursued a policy of consolidation of civilization, the construction of the Georgian nation-state. In this state there is no place of national minorities, should all become Georgians. The entire system (cultural, linguistic, educational policy), helping to ensure that have the greatest favor only one, the municipal language.

This is the policy of the Georgian nationalism, almost everything has become a prerequisite for the war in August 2008 and the separation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Might, under other circumstances, become independent and Adjara. This pressure can not cause an increase in tension in the middle part of the population and intellectuals Samegrelo and Svaneti, aimed at preserving the cultural and regional identity. In addition, a role played by the factor adjacent Abkhazia, which is also home to Svans Megrels. Most of them are citizens of the Russian Federation, they do not apply the usual measures of intimidation and pressure, they are looking Russian TV channels (forbidden in Georgia). All this, coupled with the cultural, and other similar relationships with the local population of Svaneti and Samegrelo, makes these communities are very awkward and unsafe potential opponents of the regime of Misha Saakashvili.

It should be noted that the factor of ethnicity played in the history of post-Soviet Georgia a significant role. First Georgian president Zviad Gamsakhurdia (1991-1993) was originally Megreli and relied on Megrelia. This is the area became a support for the forces loyal to the former president. Although Gamsakhurdia hope to Svan not justified, they did not support.

Swann Jaba Ioseliani in 1989 organized a militant nationalist group "Mkhedrioni" and his movement played a major role in the rise to power of Gurians Eduard Shevardnadze (Georgian President in 1995-2003). Both of them could not stand in Samegrelo and because Megrels steel support for the so-called Saakashvili. "Rose Revolution" (2003 year). Misha Saakashvili and his team used the fact that the very future president was half Megreli (by my mother), and dissatisfaction with the policy Gurians Shevardnadze which relied on their own relatives and descendants of Guria.

Georgia is facing the threat of further fragmentation

Saakashvili understands the importance of Samegrelo and Svaneti, because a number of his associates, for example, the brothers Akhalia (some of them B. Akhalia — Minister of Defence), Megrels. He frequents these areas, showing the "closeness" to the people (spending the night in the homes of local residents, etc.). Significant funds are spent on infrastructure projects, develop the tourist sector. But there are huge doubts whether projects achieved great success Saakashvili. So no Sighnaghi nor Kutaisi, where they held a reconstruction of the center does not have tourist centers even regional level. It is not clear that Mestia (Svaneti) and Anaklia (Samegrelo), who touts himself Georgian president, will become international centers of tourism.

From a military point of view, it is necessary to take into account the fact that in Svaneti is only one mountain road and if the inhabitants of Upper Svaneti wish, then it is not difficult to block. As a result, under the control of the rebels would be possible dam naikrupneyshey power of Georgia — Inguri hydroelectric power station, which will be a powerful blow to the position of the current regime, which and so causes the disgust of the population. It showed comparable nedavneshnie unrest in Georgia — in May 2011, when the streets of Tbilisi took thousands of people.

So Makar, we may in the medium term to behold continuing fragmentation of Georgia, because in the western regions of Georgia, Samegrelo and Svaneti, at the moment there is quite a significant potential for separatism. The same situation can see and in Adjara. Tbilisi's policy, which is focused on the assimilation of the local population and the elimination of regional languages, at some point, may meet resistance. In addition, local people dissatisfied with the difficult economic situation, which is caused by the closure of Georgia for the ordinary and the most important market in Russia. Samples of the Saakashvili regime change this situation by creating a zone of international tourism, is unlikely to lead to success. The proximity to the zone of potential conflict scares people.

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