Georgian syndrome (Foreign Policy, USA)

Georgian syndrome ("Foreign Policy", USA)

— gold every word that buck. Statejka — funny satire, very funny. Creator respect! (IN)

Two years after the tragic war, Tbilisi is thriving, but the Georgians are nervous as before — in the main because they do not fully believe in love Barack Obama to Georgia.

In these weeks, Our homeland celebrated the second anniversary of the war with Georgia in the usual manner yourself: President Dmitry Medvedev paid a visit to Abkhazia — breakaway province that recognizes our homeland beyond the state — and one of the Russian generals announced that Our home is located in the modern Abkhazia anti-aircraft missile systems S-300 to counter the danger of some of the Georgia. If the Georgians are inclined to regard every Russian provocation as the beginning of the apocalypse, rushed to peel the alarm, a State Department spokesman dismissed the general's statements as the outdated announcements. The administration of President Barack Obama is trying — while completely successfully — to find the balance between the protection and preservation of Georgia's "reset with Russia" But what she would do if our home will simply refuse to leave the territories captured in the course of an illegal and unjust war?

Very yielding RF in all qualities of hard power, Georgia has a crushing advantage in myagenkoy. Russian is probably the strikes and exasperated. Like Israel, Georgia comes to the number of states, of which the Americans are incapable of thinking correctly. Guests Tbilisi — charming old capital of the country — quickly fall under the power of the "Georgian syndrome", and readily lend themselves to the charm of the picture sentimentality, heavy drinking parties, and the Central European boulevards, and a passionate devotion to Western values in the face of threats — real and imagined. On myself all this much has worked — an article about the events preceding the war, which I wrote for the New York Times, certainly, was to look and feel the President Misha Saakashvili. At the moment I'm back in Tbilisi — lecture at the invitation of the government, although priemuschestvenno I wanted to see his offspring, passing at this point in the practice of ministry money.

I was not the only one who succumbed to the charms of this. George W. Bush, who visited Georgia in 2005, so touched that he even began to dance, and it instantly made him a local hero — in his honor even dubbed the street in Tbilisi. Georgia quickly became the unofficial symbol of presidential crusade for democracy, Bush supported (in general, unsuccessfully) the idea of taking Georgia into NATO, despite angry opposition to Russia. Senator John McCain has put forward Saakashvili for the Nobel Peace Prize for the central role he played in the Georgian "Rose Revolution" of 2003, which led Georgia to democracy (extension supported Hillary Clinton, while also a former senator). McCain to this day remains a committed supporter of Georgia. His recent column in the Washington Post, in which he said that the Obama administration is "likely to become more willing to appease the authoritarian Russia than to support a friendly Georgian democracy," one hundred percent reprinted very pro-government Georgian English newspaper Messenger.

Georgian favorites are looking at what is happening with some great optimism — or, at least, so they say. Georgian Minister for Reintegration, a close friend of Saakashvili, sharing many of the relevant features of your own head — the absolute self-confidence, honesty unintelligible, spontaneous wit, said to me: "We believe that the Obama administration is not throwing Georgia." During the election campaign, Obama sharply, albeit with some delay, has condemned the invasion, and as president he explicitly accused Russia of de facto annexation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia — breakaway province, which in 2008 began war. Iakobachvili and his colleagues were very pleased when Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited Tbilisi last month, directly Named Russian presence in the 2-spheres "occupation."

Yet, as long as Georgia does not have the ability to check their magic on Obama, and Georgians fear that this type of dispassionate and incomprehensible not give "syndrome." People acquainted with concern they say that, although Michael McFaul (Michael McFaul), officially in charge of the National Security Council (NSC) for Russia and Eurasia, set up pro-Georgian and even worked in Georgia, representing the National Democratic Institute, Denis McDonough (Denis McDonough ) davneshny Obama adviser and head of the National Security Service McFaul — a cold-blooded realist. Others are questioning whether Obama has not given up on the principle of "Eurocentrism" — in other words from the "Western values" — and if he wants to sacrifice for the sake of Georgia's "reset" with Russia.

Like the Israelites, Georgians frustrating to think that their claims on the U.S. based on morals faster than strategy. Iakobachvili makes feral assertion that the presence of in the Caucasus threatens NATO combat terrorism, organized crime and the proliferation of nuclear weapons. And he knows exactly what Russian passports issued by the Ossetians, who were at the Chechen separatists. But in fact the current stalemate hard to name the source of impermanence. When I asked the Deputy Secretary of the Security Council of the state of Georgia Irakli Porchkhidze why the West should seek withdrawal of the Russian Federation in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, he replied: "Russia has violated the principle of the inviolability of borders; She is involved in ethnic purification. Is not it a question of human rights? '.

It's really true — more or less. Accidents related to ethnic cleaning in the main with a ruthless civilian war of the early 90's, in which both sides committed atrocities. But, although so far there are disputes about whose shot was also the first in 2008, during the war Our homeland has violated the territorial integrity Georgia just as rude and clearly, as in Iraq in 1990, violated the territorial integrity of Kuwait. Despite the fact that the cease-fire requests from both parties to withdraw from the disputed region, Our homeland continues to keep it thousands of fighter retains control over the territories, and shows a disregard for the agreements by announcing plans for a C-300 — deprived, by the way, what the someday intuitive sense of the defense. "We have a three-and-a-half plane — says Iakobachvili. — What are they going to shoot down — flying saucers? ".

Georgia, in fact, is to own the problem of friends. Most of its neighbors in the former Soviet site bowed to Russian ambitions for regional hegemony — but not stubborn Georgia. Many of those who are not quite succumbed to the "Georgian syndrome", assured Saakashvili not to tease her passionate and Russia Prime Minister Vladimir Putin cast hopes to join NATO and the mute own particular nationalism. The private final column in the Financial Times expert on the region, Thomas de Waal (Thomas de Waal) submitted that Our homeland also seeks to "reset" relations with the West, which could include reconciliation with Georgia, but added that such changes are not possible until Saakashvili — "Arch-enemy of Moscow," as de Waal — keeps its own post. (His term in office comes in 2013.)

Saakashvili, in truth, the man is hot and inconsiderate, but the Georgians,
apparently, is in it and love it. He partly — though apparently not one hundred percent — returned for yourself popularity, lost after the war, in which Georgia has suffered a frisky and convincing defeat, and the Georgian opposition is hopelessly fragmented. The country is experiencing a boom, Saakashvili is a huge building to highlight the personal style of the second David the Builder — stately Georgian ruler, which he vowed to emulate. When his term ends, he can become the prime minister, as Putin has done (in general, it is unlikely Saakashvili himself would have liked such a comparison). In short, he is in Georgia under any circumstances, not someone else. In addition, there are no signs that our homeland really softens its stance toward its neighbors unnoticed. RF Putin — Medvedev or — apparently need humility, not conciliation. If the purpose of the Russian Federation would simply release the Ossetian and Abkhazian peoples from the yoke of Georgia, one would find some solution, implying considerable autonomy. But if its purpose — to bring Georgia to its knees, then it will not withdraw its troops from the region, without a coherent Western pressure.

Specifically, here lies the problem. If our homeland again try to crush Georgia, the West can respond. But what if Moscow will simply continue to detain already okkupirovannnoe? European favorites, many of which are dependent on Russian oil and gas, is unlikely to find that for the sake out of this impasse is to risk relations with Russia. Administration McCain could still donate to arms control or Iranian politics for the sake of stately affairs of Georgia's territorial integrity, but neither Obama nor any other president ever, does not come under the power of the "Georgian syndrome", so do not go. Russian occupation of Georgian countryside — one of those abuses are unacceptable to insist, but in practice they are usually humble themselves and expect, unless there is possibility of a compromise solution.

It would be better if to the attention of the Georgian administration, unwilling to abandon maximalist claims it will bring friends, not enemies. At the end of our conversation at the bar of the Georgian Hotel Marriott, handed me Iakobachvili spoken to him not so long ago, one of the ambassadors of the words, "We love Georgia, but we do not adore you unconditionally."

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