Neither cheap oil or cheap gas

Belarus agreed to transfer its duties on oil and oil products to the Russian budget. Also, the official Minsk predicts that in 2011 the price of Russian gas for Belarus will amount to 210-220 dollars per thousand cubic meters. Does this mean that oil and gas issues between Belarus and Russia resolved?

Head of the Department of Tax and Customs Tariff Policy of the Ministry of Finance of Russia Ilya Trunin said all the members of the Customs Union agreed that Belarus will transfer its toll on oil and oil products to the Russian budget. Like, now there is a technical study of the mechanism. Earlier, Deputy Minister of Finance of Russia Sergei Shatalov said that in this case, the country will be able to receive tax-free oil. First Deputy Prime Minister of Belarus Vladimir Semashko called this option "extreme, worst-case" for Belarus. The fact that now there is a study of the mechanism of transfer fees, suggests that the last point in this case is not staged. According to the economist Leonid Zlotnikov, at the end of the year we can expect oil war with Russia.

"Since the beginning the year will be operate an oil pipeline bypassing Belarus, although still in trial mode, so Russia will be less dependent on Belarus. The Russian authorities will be less with the Belarusian authorities. This is not a trade war. But disputes will be resolved to a greater extent from a position of strength than it was before.

Cprechki will largely be addressed from a position of strength than it was before.

Regarding Russia Belarusian authorities do not behave very well. And therefore, there can be non-economic motives of these disputes from the Russian authorities. "

The fact that the signing of agreements on oil deliveries delayed, indicating that the Russian government is waiting for the results of the elections in Belarus and the further development of relations.

"And what will happen after the election, it is difficult to answer. If they do not recognize the legitimacy of this election, it will be immediately significant deterioration of relations between Russia and Belarus. And there are economic reasons will not be decisive. But they can be guided by political, geo-political motives — as Russia and Belarus. "

While there is no certainty about the price of Russian gas. First Deputy Prime Minister of Belarus Vladimir Semashko, like during a press conference of the head of Belarus with Russian media, reiterated that in 2011, the price of Russian gas for Belarus will amount to 210-220 dollars per thousand cubic meters. This is $ 30-40 less than forecast, which was made at the meeting of shareholders of the gas monopoly. Also, the Belarusian side declares its intention to increase the price of Russian gas transit through Belarus.

The Russian "Gazprom" leave forecasts Belarusian side without comment. Also there are the wraps off of the Belarusian proposals on the gas issue. The representative of the press service of "Gazprom" Denis Ignatiev said:

"Our gas price will be determined by a price formula, which is embedded in a long-term contract. This is the standard formula for all gas contracts. "

According to the Economic Observer newspaper "Belarusians and Market" Tatiana Manyanok, difficult to think that the specialists of "Gazprom" so wrong with the calculations, when the voices of the price of $ 250. However, you may have corrected it.

"The price of 220 dollars is quite acceptable for Belarus, given that actually goes on the formula and Russia will not be any easing of Belarus and will not be made. And Semashko said that there are some other suggestions for "Gazprom" in the context of these negotiations. I think that the Belarusian side is trying to offer something to "Gazprom" to get a more favorable, comfortable environment. I do not think that the gas war may be in the end — the beginning of next year. Only in that case will not conflict points to increase the price of natural gas transit. After Semashko has already said that the transit will be increased. But you have to sign an additional agreement to the contract. "



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