What are the prospects for the current area? As far as the appearance of the area depends on the actual votes of the election? Or only the national idea can mobilize people to the Square? On these topics in the "Prague accent 'reasoning: chairman of the" Young Front "Dmitry Dashkevich, head of the campaign headquarters of Vladimir Neklyaeva Andrei Dmitriev and Sojm member of the BPF, a political analyst Yuri Chausov.
Drakakhrust: We already know the results of one of the key, if not the most important stage of the election campaign — the formation of precinct election commissions. In contrast to the freemen of collecting signatures, there is no particular liberalism is not there — as usual, the opposition, independent company received a tiny fraction of seats in the committees. It can be assumed that the counting of votes will be appropriate.
This situation makes it especially urgent to the Plaza. All decides Area — some say? And from which it follows that the area in general will — at least the same as in 2006, but not like in 2001? And even if the will, then it will solve?
Dmitriev: I'm sure the area will be. It is felt in the community, we felt it when collecting signatures. The question of what it
will. Or is it a standard 20000, which came in 2006, or it will be really massive area that can affect the outcome of the presidential campaign.
What does this mean? Of two things. First, from the fatigue of personality and desire to change it. This is what we felt at the time of collecting signatures when all the opposition candidates have collected a million signatures. And, secondly, that in society there are people who do not go to the area because there is a perfect plan, not because there is a chance of victory. And because they show that power and to themselves that they are good people, this case is their honor to come and say — you are deceiving us, we understand this and stand against it.
Drakakhrust: Yuri, what about the PAT. Andrew said about the standard 20000. But here in 2001, was 2-3 thousand, after the 2004 referendum as a couple of thousand. 20 000 2006 look like a peak, top, rather than standards.
Chausov: Indeed, planning the next area, it is worth it to compare, but to compare not only with 2006 or 2001 years, and
remember that the model for all Belarusian acreage had successful non-violent revolutions in nearby countries. In 2001, Belarusian politicians inspire voters example of the fall of Slobodan Milosevic in 2006, we had a perfect example of Ukrainian "color" revolution. Now this is not an example, there is the opposite feeling that this wave of "color revolutions" stopped. Do not take a blood sample for the Kyrgyz events that led to the overthrow of Bakiyev.
Dmitriev: And Moldova?
Chausov: In 2010, we do not have a positive sample. We do modeled area in 2006. I'm not saying that it makes political consultants staffs, but in the public mind the comparison is not with some neighboring successful example, and since 2006, the year when there was a moral uplift, a sense of moral superiority, but politically it was a defeat. The authorities can take advantage of this situation and apply the tactics that they used in 2004, when the crowds on the street gave pobuyanit, pobuzit even go to the KGB, and allegedly to negotiate. Finally steam came the whistle.
Drakakhrust: Dmitry, your material about the prospects Square reminded me of a phrase U.S. President Andrew Jackson: "Even one person — the majority, if a brave man." What is your outlook on the Square and it is connected with the amount of people that come out. Andrew says that there will be more than 20,000, Yuri doubts and 20 thousands. And it is to have meaning?
Dashkevich: Very incorrect to compare the parliamentary campaign and referendums with the presidential election. In 2004, people
out to seek change, they went out to demonstrate their citizenship. As to the 2001 year and 2-3 thousand on the square, I remember Hancharyk and his chief of staff Valentin Palevikova disperse people from the area, "Go home, we won, we write a complaint to the CEC." "One candidate" from the square dispersed. In 2006, although there was a candidate who could take on the responsibility, but the leaders of the area did not overclock as 30,000 accelerate hard.
Forecasts — a very thankless job, especially in Belarus. But I can remember in 2006 when everyone including political strategists said that more than 10,000 will not work. It was about 30,000, and no one knew what to do with them.
Drakakhrust: And now — the number and what to do with it.
As to the possibility of floor space, its size, its actions affect the election results — as officially announced, and perceived by society, or at least those who go out to the Square? Milinkevich said many times — in 2006, we knew that we did not win. Contradicting Milinkevich Dashkevich quoted in his article, a number of examples where the defeated area, generally has nothing to do with elections and their results.
But then the area is simply synonymous with revolution, coup. Occur they are lucky, there is not very much. However, the Belarusian area, which may try to repeat now, was connected with the election, the election was over. This was also the area of 2000 belgradkaya, so was the Kiev Maidan in 2004. So how did the election results affect the area?
The people who were standing on the Maidan, were convinced that Yushchenko won. And in Belarus following the September survey NISEPI rating Lukashenko -43%, closer to his Nekljaev — top 5%. Eight-time gap of two months, it is difficult to overcome.
Dashkevich: Also, according to the September survey NISEPI 45% of society in favor of radical changes in our
country. On the first day of the Maidan in Ukraine has also published several thousand people. And they did not require a military scenario, they are demanding a fair vote count. What prevented Milinkievich in 2006 to demand the same thing? Then he said — we will change in a year or two Lukashenka will not, now, he says — I am proud to have not made a revolution.
We now have every right to demand a sincere and honest counting. And this is what is necessary to achieve the Square. If Lukashenko's rating 45% and 45% of those he miraculously score — let elected in two rounds. And let's see how it will be easy to say that the opposition — is 150 thousand CIA agents, drug addicts and pyantosov.
He can not hold an honest count. Accordingly, it is illegal and self-proclaimed president.
Drakakhrust: And that is the majority will think so too? You are a requirement in the Square. But what should be the mechanisms for its implementation?
weeks to disappear from television screens and radio sets, spending his inauguration area was cordoned off by riot police. It made a few hundred people. And if it will be a few thousand, but if it is a few tens of thousands? I am convinced that Lukashenko would disappear if such a number of people will have a specific requirement and will vigorously defend it.
Drakakhrust: Yuri is a feeling people's perception of the election results will affect their behavior? They may believe that Lukashenko rigged the elections, but still won. Or as said Dmitry, determination can overcome this political arithmetic?
Chausov: The influence of these results on the number of people voting in the Square is. And the more votes will be
cast for the Democratic candidate (or the Democratic candidates), the more people will be able to enter the area.
But it seems to me that in 2006 a large part of Mrs. Yarmoshina that people came out. Well no, he scored 83% — knew it all. In Minsk at this were sure even those who voted for him. And then the inverse relationship: the more brazen figure draw Yarmoshina, the greater the disturbance in the society, the greater the likelihood that it will provoke people to street protests.
Do not forget that the area is not only politicians, not just ratings, not only the results of the election, which announces the CEC. It is also important that the presence of the digit that is protected — the numbers of these results. Even in Yugoslavia in 2000, when dumped Milosevic was a figure that had to be protected. The same thing happened during the "orange revolution" in Ukraine, where the government itself acknowledged that the vote was split roughly in half, which strengthened confidence in the fraud.
Do not forget that in Belarus there is no alternative mechanism for counting. The authorities carefully destroyed all the institutions capable of conducting surveillance. Set up an appropriate scheme of work of election commissions, to even the commission members did not know the results of the vote count. A system of exit polls fully transferred Youth Union, which will issue its "alternative" results.
In addition to ratings and alternative results is an important factor Square — the presence of the youth protest movement, which is now in Belarus is simply no, no one structure that will be able to become the primary "primer" for the Plaza. There are some things do not cost the Square and in Yugoslavia, and Ukraine, and Belarus in previous attempts relied on young people. Now young people do not.
Drakakhrust: Yuri words resemble words bulgakovskoga Voland — nothing you do not. Some say that in Belarus, too, and there is no election. But if there is no election, then what's the difference — who has more votes there who have less. Can the mere fact of elections or the "elections" — it's just an excuse to leave people in the area?
Dmitriev: It is already clear that the elections will be rigged. After the formation of election commissions has become clear that the stage
the election is over, the political struggle began. Because Lukashenko himself ready to count the votes, and we know how he's counting. Today, the electoral commission — is subordinate to Lukashenko, who vote for him.
Analytical Center of the Presidential Administration has already given that over 66% of Lukashenko. Here is what they will write to him. But I'm sure the area can not be expanded on the reasons — that it works, it's not. Of course, you need to prepare. And Milinkevich was to say that it is up to the Plaza was not involved, it's not ready, he had no plan of action, he could not make decisions when he was in the Square. And those who were there know it.
Today, we have leaders who can stand in the square, I mean Neklyaeva first. They can tell people what to do, where to go, what our requirements.
In the square there is an irrational part, in my opinion, the biggest. It is this fire and in Ukraine in 2004, and Moldova in the past year, as Yuri forgot, that it is reset everywhere.
I recently talked to my Ukrainian friends, they told me that on the first day, when going Maidan, they could not believe that will happen in the coming days. Therefore, I believe that today it has the strength — we, that Sannikov is Dashkevich, even Romanchuk and Kastusyou now saying that area is what we will call the people there and come back.
And that will be the main message of which the candidates will be sent to the voters — that the election will not be that this is a lie, and not the election, come to the square to win and defend their honor. I think there is an irrational component of the work that we just underestimate.
Drakakhrust: I have just a question of numbers, leaders and history. In 2001, according to official data Hancharyk scored 15%, according to independent surveys, 27%, but went 2-3 in the area of thousands of people. In 2006 Milinkevich officially scored 6% -18% in the polls, but gathered on the square 30000. You, Andrew, saying that Milinkevich had no relation to the Plaza. Or maybe it was the same, maybe that's his body, his approach and drew on the area for at least part of the people.
Does not it, that a clear pro-European, so let's call it, the position is not very popular in the community, but it has a sufficient mobilization potential to create an area of? Will the people in the square for a candidate who calls for further integration with Russia and Belarus Russia for selling productive assets?
And one more thing: here there will be 7-10 candidates, who have won, for anyone to enter the area?
Dmitriev: I was at the Plaza in 2006, my friends were there. We were not there for Milinkevich. He was the one person who stood out in
as a single. Oh well. But we came there because of the internal promise that we have come to express their protest against the power of what she does with the elections and the country. And do not compare 2001 and even in 2006 it is today. 2001 — it was 9 years ago, Lukashenko was the president of only 7 years, people have not been able so tired. Who is tired of what he is doing to the country is very high.
As for slogans — for Europe, against Europe, for Russia against Russia, it seems to me that this will not be the deciding factor. It's clear that the new president will come and he will negotiate with Russia and the EU, and do it by not going anywhere.
People will come to support the idea that Belarus should be a change. It seems to me that this was a major, and in 2001 and 2006, and is now.
We can argue this way: in 2001, came to the area a few thousand people in 2006 — 20,000. So in 2010 we can expect 50,000 people. This improves the mood of protest in society.
Drakakhrust: Yuri, you agree to such an extrapolation?
Chausov: I would not want to argue with Andrew, because he says, as the chief of staff, said what he has to say. And the fact that he is confident
e you the same as in Moldova, shturmanut something, then the blood is not otmoemsya
their words, it's very good. The only thing to say that the area in 2006 was a surprise that no one is prepared, it is not — the public campaign for the withdrawal of people began to be produced in the area since February 2005.
Andrew rightly said about irrational factors Square. But we have to build a rational scenario with these irrational factors, taking into account the psychology of the masses, in view of public sentiment. And not only sociology here will help us.
Indeed, in the modern history of Belarus only national idea, the only national values taken out of people on the street. And bet on faith, on morality, on the dignity of people is able to bring them to public protests.
The only thing I would add is that it is not necessary to position the area as an indulgence, which will write off everything that happened during the campaign. Calls for integration with Russia will sound and the Square will be targeted to those at the Plaza invites.
Mr. Dashkevich and Mr. Dmitriev represent different technological levels of Belarusian politics. Mr. Dmitriev said Nekljaev willing to stand on the square, and Mr. Dashkevich said the determination and willingness to do something in the Square. I think that just the concept of the crowd in the square requires more willingness to negotiate. Area as the winning area has always been based on exhaustion of the ruling circles, on a split in the ruling group.
A determination about — well, Mr. Dashkevich, will give you the same as in Moldova, shturmanut something, then the blood is not otmoemsya. Are we ready to take responsibility for this? But to succeed it will not.
Dashkevich: Who needs to wash off the blood? Those people who come out peacefully to demand a fair vote count, or those who
give orders to these people beat, detain, trample? Mr. Yuri believes that these are the people that from the standpoint of faith, morals and dignity onto the street. I promise so completely agree. If Lukashenko will be able to force some kind of scenario, it is responsible for. We have the moral right to demand a fair vote count.
In 2001 came out to tens of thousands. I remember being chased Hancharyk people from the area, and we stood there and cried. So the comparison is incorrect.
No one can say what will be the area. But it is already clear — it should be, without it, no matter the electoral campaign, especially the presidential campaign.
Dmitriev: There are reasons that we do not talk. The whole country is aware that the only way to change the power — it
presidential election. People do not understand what the parliament, which is the local councils. Once every 5 years, the only way to come in one day and tell her "no" to what is in the country, and say "yes" to the country in which they want to see. People are aware of this. Therefore, it is now so actively subscribed for opposition candidates.
As to the words of Yuri, the journalists and political scientists need to understand that the script Plaza will not be discussed on Radio Liberty, or in any other broadcast or newspaper page. I agree with one thing — that the area will stand for the negotiations with the authorities. This is what the Lord says Dashkievich as impossible a new vote count or a new round of elections no negotiations with these authorities. But how are we going to do, what we have now — you'll know about it on Dec. 19, when you come to the area.