Two times two — not always four, or how the South American rating agencies

Two times two - not always four, or how the U.S. rating agenciesThese days are rare economic survey is complete without mention of the 1st of rating agencies. With all of this in the vast majority of cases, these agencies — the South American. These include Fitch Ratings, Standard & Poor's and Moody's. After the first wave of the crisis of 2008, the agency listed somehow at once very intensely expressed for themselves. Home phrase here "after the crisis." In other words, before the advent of the global economy in almost all countries seem to be aware that there are some South American rating services, which assumes that the economic potential of the other countries or certain points, but less so. In the American rating agencies was conducted, no doubt, careful work, which is usually focused only on that to delay the ratings of their own major sponsor at the appropriate level. And thus the main sponsor, for obvious reasons, was the United States. How would, by definition, a free economy, government has no right in any way affect the personal monetary universities, and even more so universities analytical disposition activities, but who said that these universities are too personal.

Questions about trust those estimates, which allow for the exhibit itself Fitch Ratings, Standard & Poor's and Moody's, have long since started to rise. But the real work of general dissatisfaction with these agencies was made only after the coming of their representatives miss the bus the very crisis of 2008, which, apparently does not let the world until this time. In fact, the word "miss the bus" here is not quite appropriate, because the leaders of these companies, of course, were the likely consequences for themselves a big hole in the monetary system of the United States. But how could they allow themselves to bring their own brain donor, by which their active "research" work and conducted long years. Specifically suspiciously unnoticed by South American rating agencies first wave of the crisis and led to the great animation of claim-specific engagement of these offices. Allegedly, the Americans let the crisis monster in the world economic sphere, unable to deal with the banking impasse in 2008, and their ranking as before was AAA, as very likely. It is the same as if a tennis player, losing in the season, all that one could lose, besides refusing to participate in a pair of tournaments, measured remained "one player" in the world. In other words, those who are endowed with it that status, just could not allow myself to reduce its rating, because he paid them well.

But the long-kept secret that the independence of the American rating agencies — only big and beautiful bubble — failed. After countless hard-hitting statements in the address of the same Moody's and Standard & Poor's are all the same have decided to try to wash off the "dirty" accusations of working for the South American debt. These samples were expressed that the rating of the U.S. was the first time in long years cut from AAA to AA +, which has caused an uproar in the South American Congress. And this storm of indignation simply explained. Just people who are sponsoring the creation of intense rating tables not figured out how to live on their own money and at the same time state that paying my sponsor shaken. This, at least, looks in rude — decided to U.S. officials and incited by the rating agencies, pleases reduce the cash status of the United States, the inspection bodies. Began seizure of documents in the offices of the companies accused of incompetence, the calls do not trust agencies and much more from the same series. And then someone else will read that corruption — it is purely the prerogative of the Russian …

In the first time after lowering the credit rating of the U.S., even the Europeans have applauded the decision of the overseas rating agencies at the time forgetting that even quite recently blamed for their own incompetence and bias.

But the satisfaction for the European Union was very rather short, as a low rating States, several agencies have decided to make amends to the sponsor and have the right and to the left to lower the credit ratings of European countries. Even France and Austria, whose economies look in comparison with the other pretty hard, learned that the credibility of their monetary systems dropped. Portuguese and Greek general level were "drowned". Now, for example, from the Greeks to the "asset" is listed ranking SS (according to S & P), which shines only for the default. For example, Russia's rating BBB, which can be attributed to the systematization "stability" and "ability to pay".

The downgrade hurt 9 European countries, and this list can be considered closed. After the Italian authorities learned that the South American analytical company decided to lower their credit rating, they followed the lead of overseas colleagues and began "wool" offices "of three U.S. pillars" of the analytical prediction of monetary risks.

Why is some made-up numbers bukovkoy or in reports by rating agencies are forced to worry so much and to run the country's business elite?

The fact is that the lower the credit rating of the country, especially at a larger percentage of the country will be getting new loans. The debt snowball from this will only increase. It should result in a demonstrative phrase that was once uttered by one of the American journalists. He said that now in order to damage the country can not enter tanks — pretty easy to lower its credit rating. And that, in principle, close to the truth.

The weaker the economy, the harder it is to raise funds to repay obligations to banks. But it happens so, that a downgrade of the country leads to the opposite newcomer momentum of development. One example: a drop in 1998 Russia's rating from BB to D — default on government bonds. But particularly since the time of the Russian economy started to get out of the debt trap. Certainly played a role, and the increasing prices of hydrocarbons, but this is one of the positive reasons for Russia.

Just behind the vigorous actions to reduce the overall EU ranking heard words to the effect that it is time once and for all abandon the use of disk imaging U.S. rating agencies. In Berlin, Paris and Brussels were expressed for the creation of the euro analytical agency, which would, of course, accurately assessed the level of positive or negative in the European economy. Say, in this case — no bias!

In Russia, too, decided to go this route. Vladimir Putin spoke to the effect that it would be good to work on the creation of Russian analytical agency, which, of course, also be independent.

With all of this for some reason neither the European nor the Russian authorities did not they say that, and what to do with the existing credit rating agencies. For example, in RF in 1997, a "Expert RA", in 2000 — "National Rating agency. " And it is far not the full list. Only thing is that the work of the Russian business structures often frankly looks through his fingers. Therefore, that these agencies were able to raise the credit rating of, RF will initially increase the rating agencies themselves of these …

And lead to a positive outcome such fecundity analytical structures around the world. In such a case, you can generally recommend to
the rating service in every state. And so let the service assigns to that of the state economy rating, which will want the government and the business of this country. But all this will lead to a complete mess, and trust in such ratings in the world will not become general.

Because dreams of a truly independent rating agency are only dreams, because no matter what kind of independence is also willing to eat …

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