Friendship in exchange for oil or hydrocarbon proposal from Alexander Lukashenko

Friendship in exchange for oil or hydrocarbon proposal from Alexander LukashenkoOn the days are from Minsk came the news that the Belarusian president of the Russian Federation has done a step towards economic integration of Belarus. Refers to the fact that Alexander Lukashenko is ready for privatization of Belarusian oil refineries Russian companies, but with the proviso that our homeland allow Belarusian company commenced production on its own (Russian) areas. After such proposals, experts have put forward one after the other ideas about why Lukashenko handy read about this exchange. For now, the energy market of the Republic of Belarus and all so looks as benevolently: Our homeland supplies gas to neighbors almost at domestic prices — about $ 165 for a thousand cubic meters of blue fuel, with oil also no problems does not appear, not a lot of that, and its value in times lower than the world. If we talk about the average price of Russian oil to Belarus in 2012, this cost was around $ 450 per ton of raw material. In terms of which have already become conventional barrels, the cost is about $ 60. Given that the cost of oil on the world market corresponds to 110-114 U.S. dollars, the "Belarus' oil is almost 2 times cheaper than the global rating.

But if everything is so great, why Alexander Grigoryevich could come in handy this debate on the privatization of refineries in the country of Belarus, besides the privatization of these companies Russian companies? If ignore the sudden manifestation of brotherly love to the Russian Federation, which from time to time suddenly fills the Belarusian favorite, you can read about what Lukashenko decided to play an exciting game that just has not only economic but also political reasons.

Proposal Alexander Lukashenko has a typical undercurrent. From the outside it looks like a test of President further strengthen allied relations with Russia, but here these undercurrents spetsefichesky properly washed and so called western partners. The situation can be fully described, followed by: Alexander Lukashenko uses magic for the West the word "privatization". Given that the European Union this week decided to extend sanctions against Belarus, linking these sanctions, as usual, subject-disregard for human rights, the clear message of Lukashenko. The word "privatization" of course, is capable of attracting the attention of Western professionals who, apparently, will have a little different look at the situation in Belarus. Say, if he decided to soften the metal Lukashenka economically and practically calls zabugorny (Russian) Business in the holy of holies — the oil sector — we can not wait that Lukashenko's political position may also soften.

But Belorussian President — grated loaf of bread, and therefore the privatization of its realization — this privatization is not entirely on economic criteria. Where there is more than obvious policy …

On the one hand, it seems that everything and as transparently as possible: Lukashenko sends a controlling stake in the Belarusian enterprises (and their country has two — Mozyr oil refinery and the company "Naftan", located in the Vitebsk region), and in return asks to allow for the extraction of their own professionals oil and gas in Russia. It would seem that there is nothing wrong. But on the other hand, it needs to Russian business controlling stakes in Belarusian refineries when many oil companies in Russia have time to open a modern oil refinery in the terrain of the EU countries: Bulgaria, Romania, the Netherlands. Well, on territory of Russia many modern refineries. If we talk about refining in Belarus only for internal use, the project itself will obviously not profitable. Well, consider the situation to when oil swinging in Belarus, then processed and then in vorachivaetsya RF, simply wrong, so the economic prizes from that "distillation" will obviously unimpressive.

In all likelihood, Belorussian the president is going to use the opportunity to not only indirectly hinted the EU that he (theLukashenko), In principle, to allow ourselves to abandon the municipal impact on certain economic sectors, and to ensure the stability of the Belarusian energy supplies from Russia. After all, as you know, the Belarusian-Russian Municipal (Municipal specifically), although it seems endless and indestructible, but it was too of course depends on the mood of both the Lukashenko and Russian political elite. And here is another increase in the supply of raw materials for Russian Nord Stream underwater pipe forces the authorities of Belarus to think … It's demarche at least some of the Belarusian authorities can complete a full overlap of the valve of the Russian Federation or the jump in prices, as has happened many times … Well, so between our countries political friendship : as in true Russian family — that hugs and kisses, the thing at the door, and the door of the castle …

And here at hand would seem to be privatized factories on the territory of Belarus, in which fuel is supplied to the processing of Belarusian oil industry also. Hmm … Belarusian oil … sounds amazing …

Assuming that our homeland will accept the proposal of the Belarusian favorite and invite professionals to Belarusian oil in exchange for a controlling stake in a refinery in Belarus, the wait can be completely radical changes. With all this apparent change of look, faster, more negative. Why? Yes, as we all know very well that that is the mood that same Alexander Lukashenko may suddenly changed, as has happened many times, and when it is completely changing the mood and may cancel all privatization deals with Russian companies, calling them anti-national and predatory. That's why eating was higher than the phrase "as it were privatized." We have something in themselves and not with the privatization of all thank God, here we are with my brothers Belarusians are comparable to similar positions.

But Alexander Lukashenko believes all such unfounded speculation, because for some time Belarusians intensively collaborate with Venezuelan oil companies. Say, Venezuelans trust us, and you … But, the truth, the Venezuelans did not give full freedom to the Belarusian spice, and decided to throw a partnership in a joint venture. So — just in case …

In general, the proposal of the Belarusian president — this thing over which need to seriously think about. But if someone from that transaction and lose, it's Russian oil oligarchs, who for obvious reasons does not want to share with our neighbors the oil needle. It turns out that Lukashenko decided to test the Russian oil owners on options for the Russian-Belarusian friendship. In such a situation may look spit on the stone, as both one and the other — people are impossibly hard-nosed …

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