40-50 years of sea ice in the Arctic melts. Global warming will come, and with it — floods, climate change … A horror movie? No, the nearest reality that today warns of world science. Including the scientists of the State Scientific Center "Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute", which is located in St. Petersburg.
Peter Bogorodskiy, senior fellow for ocean-atmosphere interaction Ph. BC., deals with this problem for years.
Peter Bogorodskiy: — The first time I visited the North Pole with the first flight of the icebreaker "Arktika" in 1977 — says the researcher. — Then the experts of our institute participated in the selection of the optimal path and evaluation of extreme loads on the body submarine. Imagine — Mahina capacity of 75,000 horsepower rushing through ice 4.3 meters thick!
I was young, "green" employee, and I just offered to go on an expedition. Some, by the way, refused, because we were going into the unknown risk. The topic of my research was acoustic noise accompanying the destruction of the ship's hull ice. Subsequently, I have twice visited the North Pole, many other Arctic expeditions, well, for the first job our team even won the Lenin Komsomol.
SPB.AIF.RU: — You build a mathematical model of the sea ice cover, its rise and melting. What is it for?
Peter Bogorodskiy: — The fact that the interaction between the atmosphere and the ocean — the main mechanism that determines the weather on the planet. In its most complex form it is presented in the Arctic, where it forms a visible product of this union — sea ice. And the mathematical model — one of the main tools of investigation of these complex processes. Worldwide, there are about 20 of the most advanced general circulation models that are solved on supercomputers, and provide forecasts for the future. So, these estimates suggest that in a few decades, sea ice in the Arctic will disappear in the summer. It will turn into the water, and its level will steadily rise. After all, usually white and ice reflects solar radiation. And the water — the dark, it will absorb it, so the ocean warms even more.
SPB.AIF.RU: — Is a Flood?
Peter Bogorodskiy: — There could be flooding. Every year, the world's scientists are going on representative geophysical forums and their topics are increasingly reflect the concerns of the scientific community of this problem. A reduction in the area and thickness of sea ice that we've seen from outer space, overtaking the most pessimistic forecasts. And basically break down and disappear is multi-year ice that form the basis of sea ice cover in the Arctic. Their thickness — about 6 feet!
Stop warming the atmosphere
SPB.AIF.RU: — What do you do to avoid disaster?
Peter Bogorodskiy: — To begin to reconsider their attitude to nature. Dramatically reduce the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. You can somehow relate to the Kyoto Protocol (an international agreement in 1997 that obliges developed countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. — Ed.), But what is global warming — obviously. Another thing you can argue about the causes. Is it the result of human activity or is it natural variability in climate that occurred in the history of the Earth more than once? The scientific community in this area is split into two camps: the alarmists (the representatives of the current, tough draws attention to the terrible consequences of human intervention in nature. — Ed.) And skeptics. For me, the point of view of the first argued more convincing, although there is a strong case and that of their opponents.
SPB.AIF.RU: — The consequences of global warming is already affecting the tourism industry of the Alpine countries. And how it will affect Russia?
Peter Bogorodskiy: — In the Alps, gradually shrinking glaciers, trails for downhill skiing, a lot of damage experienced recreational infrastructure. Also rapidly melting permafrost in Siberia and the surrounding areas. Its boundaries are moving north, and that means big problems for indigenous wildlife, nature in general. Climate change will be reflected in a number of industries. Many people think that it's great, and in Irkutsk and Krasnoyarsk grow palm trees and pineapple, but nothing good such disasters do not promise.
SPB.AIF.RU: — Where did you spend the research?
Peter Bogorodskiy: — Our Institute is uniquely positioned to conduct observations from research vessels, and drifting polar station "North Pole." In Tiksi operates hydro-meteorological observatory, where the boundary layers of the sea, the atmosphere and the sea ice can be seen at the advanced level. This visual characteristics, and the installation of modern equipment, which will register the settings with "nature." A huge plus that you can come to the Arctic and really appreciate the processes that try to calculate on the computer. For scientists, this unique material.
SPB.AIF.RU: — So, everyone is aware of the impending danger, but few are doing?
Peter Bogorodskiy: — I do not agree. The problem involved in serious scientific organization. The development of large-scale circulation patterns — Leading issue of priority of climate projects in America, Europe and Russia. There are a number of programs over the results. Is active and set up in the framework of the World Meteorological Organization, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Its reports are widely published — is a concentration of advanced science in this area. For the contribution to the fight against global warming, the Intergovernmental Panel led by former U.S. Vice President Al Gore in 2007 won the Nobel Peace Prize. Although people generally behave inexcusably careless.
SPB.AIF.RU: — 40-50 years — a short time. How to force humanity to quit power to prevent the apocalypse?
Peter Bogorodskiy: — Everyone wants to live with modern comfort, consume the best, so I guess no one would agree to limit themselves voluntarily. The same greenhouse gas emissions produced by burning coal, oil, gas, and these fossils today — the main source of wealth for many countries. Incidentally, Russia signed the Kyoto Protocol, in contrast to the United States. However, after 20-30 years, the people have to reconsider its position. Otherwise it may come true very bleak scenario.
Author: Elena Danilevich