Society members: Associate Professor of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations Kirill Koktysh from Moscow and expert registered in Lithuania Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies Denis Melyantsou from Minsk.
Valery Karbalevich"Alexander Lukashenko not only refused to sign a plan of regional Belarusian-Russian military group, but did it in public. He demanded that Russia was carrying the financial costs for the common defense. Lukashenko also said that he would sign the document only at the meeting of the Supreme State Council of the Union State. What is behind this demarche? "
Kirill Koktysh"Lukashenko after a visit to Minsk European politicians received some assurance that the elections will be recognized. So now he is putting pressure on Russia. Indeed, in recent times in the Belarusian-Russian conflict Lukashenko often lost. Now he's trying to win.
And at the same time the president of Belarus Belarusian voters eager to demonstrate strength, to show that it can be on an equal dialogue with Moscow. "
Karbalevich"Usually Lukashenko during the Belarusian-Russian conflict is trying not to affect the military sphere. After all, Russian security officials — is the main lobbyists for the head of Belarus in Moscow. But now he is using the latest trump card? "
Koktyish"At the NATO summit in Lisbon, there have been fundamental shifts in a positive direction between Russia and NATO. It was even on joint missile defense.
Therefore Lukashenko need to sharpen this question to show that the Belarusian-Russian group something useful. Indeed, in the case of Union of Russia with NATO status of Belarus as a factor for the defense of the Russian Federation is lost.
Denis Melyantsou"I believe that this demarche Lukashenko gets into the mainstream of the current Belarusian-Russian relations. Indeed, the Belarusian leader that crosses the red line, which were military relations.
But about a year Lukashenko crosses that line. He put the question of the existence of Russian military facilities on the territory of Belarus. Then he hung Lukashenko signed an agreement on the Collective Rapid Response Forces CSTO did not take over the presidency of the organization. Now is the time when you have to use the last trump.
The fact is that in the 1990s was a kind of a contract signed between Belarus and Russia. Belarus provides military, strategic position of the Russian Federation in the territory, and Moscow has provided the Belarusian economic preferences.
Later, Russia gave up its part of the contract. Therefore Lukashenko raises the question of renouncing their part of the contract, or amend this contract. "
Why not take Lavrov Lukashenko?
Karbalevich"Lukashenko is not received Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia Sergey Lavrov. This is surprising, as the President of Belarus necessarily accept Russian governors of the smallest regions. And here the Minister of Foreign Affairs. Why? Here's Interfax, citing a source in the Kremlin said: "The meeting of Sergey Lavrov with President of Belarus could not take place as the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry had clear guidance on this issue from the president of Russia Dmitry Medvedev." What does this mean? Maybe Moscow, received a diplomatic slap in the face tends to mix the scandal, to save face, put a good face on a bad game? "
Koktyish"I think Lukashenko refused to Lavrov. After all, what is the Russian president to send the Minister of Foreign Affairs in Minsk and prohibit meet with Lukashenko? Rather, it is the source of the Kremlin statement was made retroactive to save face.
On the one hand, Lukashenko shows the power of the electorate. On the other hand, for the Belarusian government relations with Russia are so bad, that will not be worse. And Lukashenko during a crisis often comes to peaking, playing for broke. If Moscow recognize the elections, it will be the winner. "
Melyantsou"First of all, this visit is timed to the planned joint meeting of the Ministries of Foreign Affairs of the two countries."
Karbalevich"You think logical that during an acute conflict, Russian Foreign Minister arrives in Minsk for a regular meeting friends virtually non-existent union state with routine matters? Do not you think that this visit is a gesture of reconciliation toward Moscow? And as a result of what happened. "
Melyantsou"The bureaucratic machine works on its own logic. For example, in the midst of the "milk war" on the territory of Belarus held large-scale Russian-Belarusian military exercises "West-2009" I think the meeting was not held on the initiative of the Russian side. There is Moscow's decision to minimize contact with the Belarusian leadership.
Karbalevich"In fact, in one day, there were two scandals in the Belarusian-Russian relations. So who initiates the scandal? Which side? For what purposes? Maybe Lukashenko, inspired by the positive signals from Europe, Moscow has decided to show another fig? "
Melyantsou"I think both sides are guilty. The pressure on Lukashenko from Moscow is a violation of the Belarusian nomenklatura loyalty to the president. But Lukashenko seeks in an election to use the image advocate independence. "