The detonator is coming cataclysm in the Middle East

The detonator of the future cataclysm in the Middle East

Yemen — a country in which everyone is ready to wage war against all

Republic of Yemen — a real Pandora's box in the Arab world, one of the poorest countries in which it is. This is practically the only poor country on the Arabian Peninsula. 58 billion dollars of GDP in terms of 1-th inhabitant of Yemen in purchasing opportunities are 2.5 thousand dollars a year. The same figure in the adjoining Saudi Arabia is close to 21 in Oman — to 25, in the United Arab Emirates — to 39, and in Qatar — tyscham to 120 bucks.

For the Republic of Yemen inherent lack of modern infrastructure and depressed economy. The municipal budget and the trade balance are suffering from acquired deficiency. In the first expenses by almost 50% greater than revenues in the 2nd imports (7.5 billion dollars in 2009), a 40% increase of exports (5.8 billion dollars). The situation is complicated archaic industry and agriculture: irrigation systems cover only 5.5 thousand square meters. km — little more than 1% area of the country.

ON THE THRESHOLD OF 2-DISASTERS

Yemen is overpopulated: it totals 22.9 million inhabitants, 43.9% of which — kids and children younger than 15 years. As the number of people it is fast catching up with Saudi Arabia and is superior to all other countries taken together peninsula. The country is moving in the demographic catastrophe: the birth rate — 4.81 baby a lady of child-bearing age, and the average life expectancy — 63.

The natural consequence of a combination of high birth rate, low death rate and poor economy is unemployment, clasps, according to official data, 35% of the working population, 45.2% of whom live below the poverty line. But outside the country Yemenis can almost always get only a black low-paid work, which is logical due to the low level of training of the state workforce, which literacy is 50.2% (women — 30%).

But the labor force (6.64 million) as superior to the needs of the economy, the only way out for its population — leaving in search of a livelihood abroad. 1.5-2 million immigrants from Yemen settled abroad, mainly in the states of the Arabian Peninsula. Until now, this reduced the population pressure and bring receipts, constituted a separate periods of up to a third of Yemenis income, but to put the labor market in the Republic of dependence on foreign policy situation. Thus, the recognition of the legitimacy of President Saleh seizure of Kuwait by Iraq in 1990 led to the deportation of 800 thousand Yemeni workers from Saudi Arabia, while the move was supported by other neighbors of Yemen.

The country is on the verge of moving to the Arabian Peninsula ordinary scarcity of fresh water in the environmental catastrophe: the capital of the country — Sanaa not far in the future possibly will be the first capital city of the world, supplies of drinking water in what will be zero. Fresh water in Yemen — the greatest value. Its current 306 cubic meters attributable to year on the 1st Yemeni, an order of magnitude less than the global average, though slightly different from Qatar. But if Qatar can allow themselves to costly modern desalination technology, the only way out for Yemen (if the judgment of the U.S. security not realize there they expressed a proposal to build desalination plants that use nuclear energy) will be "water war" with Saudi Arabia, supplies of fresh water which is more than two times higher than the Yemeni.

PIRACY AND TRADE Cannon

The detonator of the future cataclysm in the Middle EastThe majority of Yemenis are ready to fight with anyone, anytime — whether jihad outside the country, tribal strife, conflict with the central government, plainclothes war or conflict with adjacent states. The country is full of the instrument, a significant, if not most of which is in the population. Militia warlike tribes hausitskih, kitted out the heavy equipment and air defense, as shown by the action beginning of the year, are able to defeat not only the Army, General Saleh, and elite parts of the State Guard of Saudi Arabia. Southern separatists in the middle of a disloyal security forces absorbed a lot of unemployed North Yemen in 1990, the socialist People's Democratic Republic of Yemen, whose qualifications are often higher than the government troops.

Careful attention is paid to Yemen in modern U.S. regional strategy, explained by the fact that this country — not only the birthplace of Osama bin Laden, and the rear base "Al-Qaeda". This organization intensively and massively adds Yemenis (they offered at 200-300 dollars per month), the ranks of "jihad warriors" for the "war against infidels" in Iraq. In addition, Yemen — a natural connecting link between Somali pirates, Islamists "Al-Shabab" Saudi "misguided sect", Iraqi and Afghan-Pakistani jihadist centers.

At once country is home to 10 s of thousands of former soldiers and officers of the armed forces of Saddam Hussein. Many of them are involved in the current time the Yankees to strengthen the army of President Saleh (first is for the Air Force), which is fighting the Islamists and nepokorlivymi tribes. After a number of recent enters the sphere of influence of Tehran and is used by Iranian "Revolutionary Guards" in the confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia. By the way, have combat experience acquired in the war with Iran and the separatists, the Iraqi security forces veterans are now doing the role of mercenaries across the Islamic world.

Vpribavok control over Yemen equivalent control over the strait of Bab-el-Mandeb, strategic for at least some of the Navy in the world supporting Fri Aden and Socotra and trading methods, ran through the reddish sea and the western Indian Ocean. Through the Gulf of Aden is 50% of the global dry bulk carrier transit, about 30% of container traffic, almost 25% of oil transportation. The strait is held every year about 20 thousand in the direction of the subsequent Suez Canal ships with oil to EU countries and the U.S., and industrial products from South and Southeast Asia.

Use a unique geopolitical position Yemen seek acting on the area of the country radicals of all types — from ideological Islamists to ex-Marxists, have been switched to the loss of power in the former "socialist-oriented countries" on piracy, the seizure of foreign hostages, smuggling guns and drugs. Corsair fishing — in the main area of activity of people from Somalia to Yemen, which is based on the 170000th diaspora. Acts of sea bandits have caused irreparable damage to the Yemeni fishing, let's revenue in the South 60% of the population. Kidnapping of foreigners for ransom — specialization of tribal sheikhs. Terrorist attacks — a field of activity "kaidistov."

But the sale of guns and drugs trade, practically all groups. Different standards of weapons and military equipment, even languid can be easily obtained in specialized markets, under the patronage of the local authorities. Sale of drugs most of the population does not consider reprehensible occupation, as such variations thereof such as "cat" — part of the local culture.

In the north, the arms business — the second after crude oil source of income of the local elite. T
he 1992 law, which in theory had to limit it, in practice, it has promoted legit. Naikrupneyshie Yemeni arms markets are Zaidi north, in Sa'ada and Amran, the smallest in size — in damar, shabu, and Maaribe lupite. There's at least some hope just buy missiles "ground-to-ground" and "ground-to-air" MANPADS, tanks, armored personnel carriers, rocket launchers, mortars, machine guns, machine guns, pistols, and, of course, ammunition. To all of this accompanied by official certificates of the Ministry of Defence of the Republic.

Specifically related to the drug trade arms trade in the country — the home of the business Ahmar clan, descendants of whom occupy a number of key positions in the military and security services. Naikrupneyshy trader guns in Saada — H. Ahmar, a rival of his in-law of President Saleh — AD al-Saghir. Up to 70% of arms from Yemen was directed to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and then in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan to 'fight against the Shiite expansion. " About 30% went to Africa through Somalia and Eritrea. The introduction of terrorists acquired in the Republic of Yemen "barrels" on the ground KSA led sauditskuyu elite to initiate construction of the electrical system protection border with Yemen and to try to minimize the runaway arms market segments, why Washington has allocated 390 million dollars, and Riyadh — 6 billion riyals "to buy weapons from the Yemeni people."

Tangle

As a consequence of the Yemeni army is not very good is in control of the country rich tool. To the President of the Republic of Yemen aircraft account for 66.7 thousand people, including the Army — 60 thousand (790 tanks, 970 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, 335 artillery pieces of various types), the air force and air defense — five thousand (75 combat aircraft, military-7 air bases), Navy — 1,7 thousand people (the naval base in Aden and Hodeidah, basing points on the islands of Perim and Socotra in Al Mukalla and Naib). Satisfactory Marine battalion fighting capacity — 500 people. Safety 1906-kilometer coastline lies on the coast guard Interior of up to two thousand people. Troops of the central security department (50 thousand) commanded the brother of President Saleh, MA. Counterterrorism unit — the son of the head of the country's Saleh.

Having significant military experience and the highest motivation of forming tribes, numbering 20 thousand people, kitted out the heavy equipment and air defense, be successfully opposed by the army, which justified the conflict in the north of Yemen in 2004-2010. Trying to modernize the armed forces that oppose the separatists and Islamists, President Saleh in the years 1999-2010 had acquired weapons and military equipment, has also entered into pin-Rakta for their supply to several billion dollars. The main partners of Yemen in MTC — Our homeland, Ukraine, Belarus, Poland, the U.S., France, China and North Korea. With all of this army's fighting capacity in contrast to the tribal groups is very small and its role as a pillar of President Saleh's government is not clear.

Aggravate the situation revanchist sentiment that a significant part of the elite and the population shows on the return to Yemen provinces detached from the country early twentieth century Ibn Saud, and permanent for conflict of the central government in Sana'a with Zaidi tribes. Although the disputed region — Asir, Jizan and Najran moved to Saudi Arabia after the Saudi-Yemeni war in 1934, the contract of the border between KSA and Yemen, consolidate this position in exchange for the waiver of Riyadh from claims on the ground in Yemen Hadramawt, was signed only in 2000 and only in 2006, made an agreement on the final demarcation of the Saudi-Yemeni border. But a number of local favorites believe this situation all the more reversible, that at the present time president Saleh balance between internal and external power centers in an attempt to transfer power to the offspring in the Middle East adopted by the model of "democratic monarchy". This minimizes the possibility of the coming of his feud with relatives and separatism tribes of the north and south of the favorites, until 1990, the former independent state. Confronting the northern and southern elites, in 1994, adopted an open form, as we approach the end of Gen. Saleh own rule significantly worsened.

In the near future there is activation in Yemen, "Al-Qaeda", including an attack on the headquarters of the secret services in Aden. On the territory of the country is hiding a U.S. citizen, named by President Obama "an enemy of the state", an ethnic Yemeni A. Al-Awlaki, who was trying to organize a bombing in Detroit, the shooting of soldiers with a Muslim co-workers at a military base in Texas and coordinates the "sleeping Network" Islamist terrorists location U.S..

Islamist activity in Yemen has strong roots. First 2000s extremists blew up in the port of Aden South American destroyer "Cole", made a series of terrorist attacks and the resonance formed the "Liberation Army of Aden and Abyana", in 2006, was incorporated into the "Al-Qaeda of the Arabian Peninsula."

In general, President Saleh had and has its own business with the Islamists and is interested not so much in their control, to insist that Americans how to maintain balance. His ally, including in the clashes with the rebels in 1994, southerners — a favorite of the local militants "Afghans" by T. Fadhli associated with the President of similar relationships. Discrepancies with the charismatic head of the country's favorite Islamist Sheikh Zindani, whom he still refused to give the United States, ultimately led to open clashes between their supporters.

Meanwhile, there is at the Yemeni president and political opponents. It stands for the unity of the country the opposition bloc "Face Mushtarak" (which comes Islamist "Islah"), protest movements separatist southerners "Harakat" and Zaidi Houthi rebels. So difficult situation allows the head of the country to postpone reform of the electoral system, the success of which would close in front of his offspring the way to the supreme power.

United States, but not only continue to pressure Saleh on democratization, and require him to defeat constructive Islamists, recognizing the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels danger sideline. But in Yemen, there are up to 100 thousand Islamist militants, they have the support from abroad and tribes, that can stand on their side. That's why Sana is unable to fulfill the requirements of Washington. Among other things, the liquidation of Islamists will change the balance of power in the country, eventually weakening the authority of Saleh, as it turned out not so long ago in Pakistan with President Musharraf and Zardari.

Yemeni Islamists are supported by the CSA design as opposed to the secular parties. But the harsh Saudi Arabia makes a bet on the opposing party radicals "Islah" and the control of its reformist wing, is unacceptable to the United States, but moderate H. Al-Ahmar, a favorite of Hashid tribal confederation, the alliance with the Socialists who have the economic base and does not prevent the Saudi elite to consider specific its a good successor to President Saleh. In this struggle, the interests of the Americans ultimately prefer the status quo, which at the cost of elimination of individual favorites Islamist radicals provides them with Saleh.

It must be emphasized that the Saudi elite, financing tribes in northern Yemen to combat Zaidis House, formed of 140 Hashid tribal sheikhs and Wakil "support group." It is in the case of adverse developments in the relationship between Sanaa and Riyadh can be applied to the very last of President Saleh, the political maneuvers of which lie outside the channel the interests of the elite. An additional factor
inconstancy will wear the steps of the opposition the president's brother Mohsen al-Ahmar, turning his opponent's head in an unsafe country. The clashes in the north between the Hausa tribe and Ben Aziz substantiated Saudi willingness to act independently in the area of Yemen to help maintain their tribal groups, leading "proxy war" against the Zaidi community, in direct collision with which the State Guard KSA suffered a humiliating defeat.

Yemen favorite, faced with pressure from the U.S. on issues that he can not solve, and the formation of its terrain Saudi armed forces outside the control of Sana'a, with the support of France, attracted to the peace talks with the Hausa Qatar — Saudi Arabia's main rival in the political settlement of the conflicts in the Islamic world from Sudan to Palestine. This song was a success all the more simple, the U.S. and the EU is not ready for the conversion of the Republic of Yemen in the theocratic government in the image of the CSA.

Ultimately, as long as the major players in Yemen balance each other out, creating your own groups of influence and allies outbid own enemies, pursuing only their own interests, concluding temporary alliances and violating obligations in the event of a significant benefit. Iran gradually crowding out of the region Saudi Arabia, with an emphasis, as in Iraq, Syria or Lebanon, the Shiite co-religionists. It supports Zaidi tribes turned into harsh independent force. CSA continues normal for him in decades sponsoring Islamic radicals outside the kingdom, encouraging them to war with the Shia, holds an uncompromising struggle with secular parties and groups and, in dialogue with the United States and the head of Yemen is trying to promote the power of the Islamists in the country of pragmatic . President Saleh uses America and Saudi Arabia, the Iranian lobby, Qatar — against KSA secular parties — against the Islamists, the Islamists and the northern tribes — against the separatist southerners and Saddam's Iraqi veterans — all against their own enemies, including members of his family. Along the way, he decides in favor of their own issues surrounding the coming competition in the markets instruments, lobbying (in the case of Russia, all the least successful) supplies of arms and military equipment — formally for the Yemeni army, in fact — for the elite of the country controlled by the arms market, blackmailing the United States, "Al- Qaeda "and tries to pass on the heritage authority.

It is possible that a single Yemen, which appeared in 1990, living out the last years. In the case of the collapse of the country's regions in the north, where he delivered a dominant Iran will resist the impact zones of the CSA and to the south skyrocket "Al-Qaeda". A scary prospect for the country in which guns more than aqua sources, and the population in the coming 20 years to reach 40 million, and after 30 years will exceed 60 million. Ultimately, the reincarnation of the Republic of Yemen in the area of the country the war of all against all, as has already happened in Somalia, Iraq and Afghanistan, will inevitably undermine the entire Arabian Peninsula. The problem is that knowing full well the role of Yemen as a detonator for future disaster, none of the interested parties do not know how to prevent it.

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