Belarus after the presidential elections will return to a policy of balancing between Russia and the West. So says Arkady Moshas, director of the research program on Russia at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs in Helsinki yes expert on Russian and Eurasian Affairs at Chatham House think tank in London.
"The EU and Russia continue to have different approaches to Belarus. Whereas the European Union and the West in general are primarily interested in political liberalization and economic reforms in Belarus, Russia wants to have a this country a reliable partner for the project reintegration of the former Soviet Union ", — writes Moshas in the latest edition of the newsletter Interactive Shatham House called" World Today ".
Moshas believes that Evravzvyazu not so important shift Lukashenko in Belarus. The researcher argues although Belarus is considered a pariah, the human rights situation there is not too different from the situation in other countries belonging to the Eastern Partnership.
"Brussels is most likely to be satisfied with some signs of democratization and will be more concerned about the trend than the speed of this process. It is still possible to achieve with Lukashenko in power. But also in Moscow, despite the sharp rhetoric, there is little interest in regime change. No guarantee The new man will not turn to the West seriously. Still, in Belarus there is no pro-Russian opposition and Moscow should not be surprised. Indeed, it really is, she helped Lukashenko occupy a niche "best and only" Russian partner, refusing relations with his opponents and leaving West business support for the political prisoners, "- says Moshas.
Summing up, Moshas forecasts that after Moscow election Lukashenko will offer a truce. This truce, the expert adds, allow Lukashenka to gain time.
"And the time — this is what you need State to build its own independent identity, to get rid of post-Soviet nostalgia and move from the contemplation of himself as a western annex Russia to the role of modern European nation-state, "- concludes his review of the Belarusian election situation Arkady Moshas.