The "Arab Spring" which launched the process of reformatting the entire Near East, has very specific preconditions. This band rift that emerged in the Middle East after the departure of the colonialists, stagnation of the ruling regimes, not done enough to smooth out the contradictions, the collapse of the bipolar world, in the end, the global crisis.
But the situation is so widespread acquired through the personal factor — inflation of the "Arab Spring" interested external forces. First, recall the European countries, but more active stimulation of the revolutionary events in the Middle East goes from 2-favorites of the Cooperation Council for the Arab Gulf States (GCC) — Wahhabi rich monarchies of Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
There is a very common and almost all over the world just about these countries as satellites of the United States and mute puppets performing the will of the owners. But this is true only in part, and to reduce everything to a purely subordinate position of these states would be a mistake. Having been in the 1970s, the most powerful tool of influence in the form of oil and gas, they converted it into cash. Massive cash flows have allowed significantly improve the social climate inside, sheiks, emirs and princes chickenpox syndrome nouveau riche yesterday eked out a poor existence, and gain access to even imaginable and unimaginable how luxury goods, have seriously decided to enter politics.
But other members of the GCC — Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait and the UAE — not in the ecstasy of the political ambitions of their own neighbors, as a better understanding of their oncoming danger. Fanned by Qatar and Saudi-fire "Arab Spring" has already absorbed Bahrain, others are waiting for their own turn. With all of this in Oman, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates can not force the Qatari emir and Saudi King to roll, "spring", since they are in their full economic, political and military dependence.
Delhi and seek
By completely impartial reasons Saudi Arabia can not compete with Iran and even to Egypt as part of the standard economic model. Yes, Riyadh, since the reign of the previous King of Fatah, especially in today's King Abdullah has to invest heavily in its infrastructure. But it was, in fact, investment in anywhere. Terrible climate, because of which only small portions are useful for a wide area of life and production, the lack of trained personnel, lack of water purchased, as, in general, and other mineral and raw material resources. — All created and makes enormous difficulties in building a developed and diversified industry. On transit, too, especially not earn — important trade routes pass though next to Saudi Arabia, but by her. The country can earn revenue by only Hajj and oil.
Lack of good industrial and economic base harms not only the economy, and the country's defense policy and makes it very vulnerable to Iran. At least since Saudi Arabia has not its own military-industrial complex — military power is based only on the purchase of weapons abroad.
In such criteria takes control of Saudi Arabia on the first glance quite justifiable and reasonable decision to start reformatting the entire place Near East through a strategy of "controlled chaos." According to this strategy in the process of reformatting will be opened all the bands faults in the region, and has settled on the ruins of chaos there will be a very long time by the support of strongest to weakest against each date. In Riyadh, said that as a result of "controlled chaos" can overwhelm the Saudis deadly enemy — the Islamic Republic of Iran, but with all this, do not realize that digging a grave for himself.
The fact is that the fault lines and fairly in Saudi Arabia. The founder of the kingdom of 2-shrines Abdel Aziz al-Saud, gathered under the palm of his own formidable historical and have not been dependent on each other area of the peninsula — Najd, Hijaz, Eastern Province, led a very severe and long-term struggle for the border with Yemen to him Asir region, Jizan and Najran. The conquest of Mecca and Medina in general required the Al Saud war with the Hashemite family, whose descendants 700 years was the Sharif of Mecca. Since the elites of these areas so far do not consider themselves members of the same country, each piece of the mosaic of Saudi except family nest dynasty — Najd is, in fact, the fault line. The greatest danger is, of course, populated by Shiites oil regions of the country. Strongly oppressed Shiites often take to the streets, demanding that equal rights, the independence.
Until now, these bands are not the fault triggered only by a rigid centralized control system kingdom of Al-Saud dynasty. But the problem is that the last time the system goes racing dynasty and mired in conflicts between the various internal factions.
The thing is very unfortunate order of succession: inheritance is not from father to offspring, and the offspring of the founder of the kingdom of Abdel Aziz to another of his offspring. At the moment, due to natural circumstances, "bench brothers" actually empty — all second-generation dynasty evenly down into the grave. King Abdullah today 89 years old, his successor, Crown Prince Salman — 76. In such a situation it would be a good adoption of a new law of succession, but the lord is seriously ill, and the prince hardly able to venture on such a crucial step (unlike the old days prior to the deceased Crown Prince Naif Salman, it seems, has neither the authority nor the business characteristics) . After all, the decision reclaims consensus inside of all the ruling Al-Saud dynasty — meanwhile, the third generation is nearly 3-hundred square meters of royal princes, and their kids and grandkids and all about 10 thousand. Midst of such hordes of possible successors will always be dissatisfied, who can simply start the process of disintegration of the country and grab for themselves or their own clan, a piece of oil-bearing.
Small Giant of the Great East
The situation in Qatar in what is either identical with the Saudi. The same terrible climate, the same very not rich resource base, petty-largest population, also Qatar has a pathetic territory where just on the physical level is unrealistic to build industrial capacity. But the emirate found another way of development — and it is likely to be more effective than its southern neighbor.
Survival strategy in Qatar multidirectional and also requests the creation of a "controlled chaos." In 1-x, it makes a fantastic means to the creation of infrastructural facilities and expects to become naikrupneyshim transportation hub of the entire region. By the end of 2012 in the emirate will build a new airport capable of up to 24 million passengers a year — more than 12 times the population of the country. And that's not all — in 2015, the airport plans to expand passenger and increment twice. And in March of this year, construction began in Qatar in the Middle East naikrupneyshgo port, the total price of which — 7.5 billion dollars. Right next to the port building three new railway terminal. The project is scheduled to finish in 2016. In order to fully load capacities, Qatar needs to "select" customers have naikrupneyshgo in the P
ersian Gulf port of Basra. Partly for this emirate and destabilize the situation in Syria — in case of a fall of the Assad regime in the region is completely probable major war.
In-2-x, Qatar tremendous views of the naikrupneyshee gas field in the world North / South Pars. At the moment, the emirate has a deposit along with Iran and, apparently, hopes that the Iranian nuclear problems will make Qatar the sole owner of Pars. The emirate is already preparing for his intense use — namely, intends recently doubled its own already impressive fleet of LNG carriers. The new vessels have been ordered by South Korean shipyards and should be launched in 2014 — exactly to the beginning of the development of South Pars.
Needed for gas consumers, and Qatar pursues a policy of brutal penetration on more basic markets of the world, first in Europe. Regasification terminals are being built on the border between Poland and Germany, in the UK, in the south of Europe. One of the natural rivals Qatar — Libya — have fallen in the fight for the European market as a result of the "Arab Spring" in the second line — Algeria.
To strengthen its position in the Middle East and crush all the leading nations in the region that might interfere with his plans, Qatar is sponsoring local Islamists. But if Saudi Arabia is based on the structural organization of the Salafi persuasion, the Qatar funded more moderate, but it is the "Muslim Brotherhood." Suffice it to say that one of the more prominent ideologues of the movement Youssef Qaradawi lives in Doha and well maintained, and they say, and is controlled by Qatar. In parallel, used information resource — unlike superkonservativnyh Al-Saud Al-Thani, the Qatari realized all the abilities that give you control over the fourth power. And in the second year after his own rise to power Hamad Al Thani launched the "Al-Jazeera" — the first Arab satellite channel, the backbone of which were former members of the Arab Division BBC. Professor and acute journalism "Al-Jazeera" rapidly gained acceptance among the peoples of the region. The combination of the news in Arabic with Western standards of journalism and presentation of different points of view (religious, secular and even Israel) made the "Al-Jazeera" indisputable authority in the Arab countries. And all this authority was thrown to the bloating of the "Arab Spring" — not the case in Egypt, half-jokingly, half-seriously they say that "Nasser removed the poison, Sadat — bullet and Mubarak -" Al-Jazeera "."
But, fanning the fire of the "Arab Spring", Qatar risk of not less than Saudi Arabia. In Qatar, there is no strategic depth terrain. All of his wealth, population, oil and gas terminals are placed on a small Cloquet land in unsafe proximity to Iran. Also located on this Cloquet naikrupneyshaya zabugornye American airbase "Al-Udeid," which in the case of a military solution to the Iranian nuclear problems will be one of the priority objectives for the Iranian counterattack. And in order to return the Qatari gas paradise in the desert state of deathly pieces, enough of several missiles.
Sultan has no time
If Saudi Arabia and Qatar are trying to expose the sail before the wind changes the Middle East (hoping that sails at all it will not tear), then Oman, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates seek out shelter from it.
Oman for the "Arab Spring" began at a very awkward time. Country just become converted to common, efficient government. As throughout the history of its existence Oman constantly shaken by tribal wars and conflicts, and the sovereignty of the Sultan almost everything was nominal. Like many of his forefathers, who ascended to the throne in 1970, Qaboos bin Said Al Said will get an unenviable legacy: territorial disputes with its neighbors, difficult socio-economic situation in the country and even open rebellion of several provinces. One — Dhofar — almost entirely under the control of the rebel movement of the left who received substantial assistance from South Yemen. Helping at the time did not want to Oman or Shiite or Sunni countries in the region (in part because a significant portion of the population professed an extraordinary branch of Islam — ibadizm).
Still young and determined Qaboos came to power immediately proposed reforms for all types of problems, which should connect the country, without singling out individual groups and clans. He had a strong administrative reform, redrawing the map of Oman so makarom that the boundaries of new provinces have completed repeat the tribal areas, and the governors were able to carry out the decisions muscat, without looking at the world leaders of clans and tribes. Qaboos made a bid for the development of business and trade, has considerably strengthened the army, saturate it with modern weapons and at times increasing the foreign exchange allowance. In the end, almost all Qaboos settled border difficulties that arose after the collapse of the colonial system and the care of the Europeans with the terrain of the Arabian peninsula. He decided, and the problem of Dhofar (with the help of the Shah of Iran and the UK).
Spent Qaboos and partial liberalization in the social sphere. For example, in 1990 in Oman's constitution was adopted, the population has received significant by the standards of the region's human rights and freedoms — right up to the fact that the ladies were given the right to hold elective municipal offices. With all of this sultan kept virtually untouched personal authoritarian rule that allows it to aggressively and single-handedly control the entire state.
But the reforms have not yet finished. Currently Oman launches program from the energy re-prepares the construction of new petrochemical companies that for a country with a population of 3 million people is very impressive and the general work of the future. That's why the sultanate as anyone else interested in the stability of the Arabian Peninsula.
The "Arab Spring" represents a severe threat to Oman. The Sultanate was at risk in almost everything because of high unemployment (about 35% of the population). As the baby boom began in the country not so long ago, almost a third of the unemployed are hot young Arabs — about both died from the virus, "spring" Egypt or Tunisia.
Naturally, the sultan made secure — unlike Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali and Hosni Mubarak, after the first demonstrations, Qaboos announced the introduction of a package of favorite laws providing for the establishment of the minimum wage and tightening measures to curb rising prices, first for food products. In addition, the programm is running youth employment and graduate schools, announced the development of new jobs (10 thousand inside the Interior Ministry and the 15 th in the individual companies). But the overall instability of that apparently will not last a year or two, worsens the main fault of Oman — the lack of an heir. At 71-year-old sultan no kids, but there is a huge amount of principal relatives. And even if Qaboos appoint an heir, it is possible that after the death of the monarch today someone might want to reconsider his decision. And for this suit, "Omani spring."
If for Oman "Arab Spring" is the problem in the medium term, for the Emirate of Kuwait problems may appear in the not to distant time. Try to absorb it again.
In fact, Kuwait — is a big sandbox over the vast oil fields. It has alway
s done emirate a tasty morsel for the majority of its neighbors, first of Iraq. In fact, all the rulers of Iraq, regardless of their political preferences in one form or another considered Kuwait as their legitimate prey. As far back as 30-ies of the last century, they lay claim to the area of Kuwait, appealing to different kinds of historical documents. When the sample diplomatic annexation failed, first the 1960 Iraq tried to resolve the case by force. Then, the Kuwaiti Al-Sabah dynasty by Arab monarchs of England and managed to fight. It seemed that the problem has ventured in 1963, with the advent of the Baathists in Iraq (they have recognized the independence of Kuwait), but the occupation of the emirate of Saddam Hussein in 1990 showed that Kuwait will always be vulnerable.
That's why even taking Baghdad Yankees did not add Al-Sabah belief in the future. By the way though territorial initiatives coming from Iraq, Kuwait is a tremendous bias. For example, as in the days of Saddam, Kuwait opposes (with this view supports not only the dynasty, and all Kuwaiti company) pipeline across its terrain, as the lease of the islands Bubiyan and Warbah. Al-Sabah fear that by entering the area of the country, the Iraqis will have a good excuse to get a foothold on it.
Kuwait suspicion by many in Iraq called paranoia. Along with the refusal of Kuwait's offer to write off Washington Iraqis reparations for occupation in 1990 (more than 200 billion dollars, of which 100 billion — direct monetary loss from invasion) it does not add to the Iraqi-Kuwaiti relations of heat. At least some strengthening of the position of Iraq (or, in the case of the collapse of the country, controlled by Iran in southern Iraq) would indicate a safety hazard Kuwait.
In this regard, the emirate still gets in a huge dependence on the 2-own external defense — the United States and Saudi Arabia — that could kill him. In 1-x, as in the case of a war with Iran, Kuwait (who, like Qatar, sheltered South American base) will be the target of rocket attacks Iran or pro-Iranian forces in the invasion of Iraq. In-2, the emirate may disappear from the map in the case of disintegration of Saudi Arabia. If in the eastern part of the peninsula will be created or Shiite government of Saudi Arabia split into several kingdoms, rulers devoid of western oil may covet the oil supplies to Kuwait. Al-Sabah said that the al-Saud dynasty should they (Kuwaiti ruler assist first king Abdulaziz in the most difficult years of the Saudi kingdom), but when it comes to money, the moral debt not remember.
We have to live within our means
For the United Arab Emirates "Arab Spring" is the same pain in the head, like other Gulf monarchies: the revolutionary wave pushes to the surface all the internal difficulties UAE and deprives them of funding.
UAE has a very specific administrative-territorial system — a federation of seven absolute monarchies. It is stable enough, but to pursue a common hard line on the whole area of the country is unrealistic. A significant part of the emirs solve problems without the help of others, and far not always correct. When suddenly discovered that the oil field is the bottom, the emirs were required to attend to the future and had not quite obmyslennye solutions. The emir of Dubai, for example, based on the tourist boom and vkladyvatelny undertook the construction of artificial islands famous. But vkladyvatelnyh welfare schemes, more resembling a pyramid, actually fell from the start of the global crisis. Are independent emirates were in tremendous dependence on naikrupneyshgo Abu Dhabi (keeps very limited domestic policy and is very willing to be so did other parts of the UAE 6) and the adjacent Arab monarchies that covered the losses they are not very obmyslennoy policy.
From the same Saudi Arabia depends not only funding, and safety Emirates. In the UAE grows social tensions, first because of prepyadstviya with visiting inherent in all perverted little Arabian monarchies. Emirates Population — 5,000,000 people, of them about 70% — of migrant workers from Southeast Asia, and Central Asia, and from India. As in Qatar, they are denied the simple right. For all this his own forces, capable, if necessary, to take control at one point emerged from the obedience of migrants from tiny emirate is not enough. Emirs have to go the way of Bahrain, asking the expeditionary force from Saudi Arabia, despite the presence of territorial problems with the al-Saud (which appeared at the time of the UAE, Saudi Arabia when annexed part of the coast between Qatar and the Emirates, dividing them).
So strict dependence on Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates emirs forces adhere to the Saudi foreign policy and be prepared for severe casualties. First it comes to Iran: In the case of aggravation of relations with Tehran, Riyadh can "ask" the UAE to abandon the 1st of a more measured income — contraband trade with Iran, to freeze all Iranian assets (Iranian elite in droves buying up real estate in the UAE — local brokers even teach Farsi), which, in turn, will put more of the emirs in the huge financial dependence on the Al-Saud and able to make their victim righteous anger of the Islamic Republic.