Is there a chance the regime of Bashar al-Assad survive the Arab winter?

Is there a chance the regime of Bashar al-Assad survive the "Arab winter"? In North Africa, the Middle East, apparently fled in a delicate balance. In 1-x, time is necessary for a strong enough "modernization" of a large part of the Muslim world, which has passed the first and second step of reformatting (the overthrow of the authoritarian regime and the elections to the strengthening of the position of Islamists.) It requests the revision of most of the existing relationships and agreements, to find a new balance of power, fixing the new order of things. In-2, Arab unrest has not yet exhausted its momentum, she kicked and punched massively very big move, so the brakes there.

The first paragraph refers to the states where the revolution was — Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen part. Comes in this group collapsed Sudan and Morocco, where there are processes of strengthening the Islamists. You can make it, and Iraq, the Americans withdraw troops and the future of this country is very vague. It is clear that Libya, Egypt, Yemen has not yet stabilized. Libya on the brink of a new step civilian war. So in Benghazi started a new excitement, and multi-million dollar mass chanting that "Benghazi, the revolution began." Egypt is facing a serious threat of destabilization. Saleh in Yemen's kind of like leaving, but with all this takes backstage romp, ex-President (as before he saves power) is "trade" their status.

In Syria, if the position was dependent only on internal factors, it was possible to stabilize the country. Bashar Assad retained the support of the elite, the army, all security agencies, most of the population. Even the Kurds prefer to remain neutral, because the consequences of war and civilian intervention can bring them more minuses than pluses. The authorities were able to bring a huge part of the cash assets to the imposition of sanctions, the same Lebanon. This allows you to maintain a certain economic stability.

Despite the fact that a number of points on a map of the country — Nahal, Idlib, Homs, Deraa, Deir al-Zor — continue to simmer, the official Damascus was able to prevent the creation of a terrorist bridgehead. The main center of resistance to the military rebels over the border in Turkey — Syrian troops from there come the liberation armiii (SOA). At the same locality Turkish passes formation, training of combat units, there are moving fighters from other countries.

Need to see that the main problem of Turkey for more active intervention in Syria, including the creation of the "safety zone" in the border areas of ATS, is Iran. Ankara and Tehran have a number of common interests (Kurdish discrepancy, the Palestinian issue, the draft hydrocarbon supplies to Europe, anti-Israeli policy, etc.) and do not want to tear things dramatically.

Although it is possible to activate the war efforts of Turkey against Syria. If the recent U.S. and Israel otvazhutsya on attack on Iran, then Turkey can knock on the Syrian Republic. Is the highest possibility of such impact in the coming two to three months. If, before the end of the winter of 2012 the U.S. and Israel do not knock on Iran, while Syria has significant chances to withstand, at least, for another period of time.

In addition, by February-March will have to pass the Syrian parliamentary elections. They are more likely modicum will confirm the legitimacy of the Baath party and the regime of Bashar al-Assad. This will make it more difficult to attack on Damascus from the West. In addition, the Syrian opposition is very heterogeneous, so Coordinating Council (he has recognized the Syrian opposition), in principle, willing to go to power through the ballot box, being reconciled with today's authorities. A more specific Syrian Council of State, it consists in the main of the little known country of emigrants, is not popular in the country. Many Syrians believe its members "rats" traitors.

Because, without external intervention in Bashar al-Assad is completely great chance to resist. To do this, continue the line to split the Syrian opposition — aggressively pressuring radicals and allowing the admission of power "Moderate." Prevent the emergence of a Syrian Benghazi, immediately suppressing the sample bands to gain a foothold in any town.

But the scenario of a massive attack on Iran by Israel and the United States can turn all the calculations. The fact that Israel can hit Iran, there is no hesitation. December 12 Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Moshe Ya'alon said that the Islamic Republic can make a nuclear weapon within a few months because you need to take critical measures and suspend Iran's nuclear program from. The politician also said that Tehran should be set before a choice: survive or nuclear weapon. In his view, the Western countries should form a united front against the Islamic Republic of Iran, using real sanctions while retaining the ability for a military strike. Ya'alon said that Iran's nuclear programm — it is the problem of the whole world, and the Islamic republic insecure without nuclear weapons.

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak, speaking at a conference in Vienna, said it was time "for immediate, coherent, paralyzing" punitive measures against Iran. And they should be targeted against the oil and monetary sectors of the Islamic republic. He also predicted that the power Assad in Syria will fall in a few weeks.

Ankara will be required to increase their efforts on the Syrian track and this can result in a war between Syria and Turkey, may be with the participation of a number of Sunni monarchies. If development goes as this band mode Assad doomed.

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