Rehearsal Areas: prolih or epilogue?

Society
Freedom of speech in the morning and in the evening: radio and TV air presidential candidates

Secrets of the Kremlin and the official Minsk: Why Sergei Lavrov met with Alexander Lukashenko?

These topics — in the next "Week of Radio Liberty", which is the director of the Belarusian service of Radio Alexander Lukashuk. It involved officers Yuri Drakakhrust, Hanna Sous and Vitaly Tsigankov. Guest transmission — columnist Russian service of Radio Liberty Andrei Shary.

Lukashuk: This Wednesday at 14 anniversary of the infamous constitutional referendum opposition and some presidential candidates held a rally on October Square in Minsk, where the 2006 post-election raged area with a capital letter. Some opposition claimed that the action November 24 — rehearsal Square, standing on 19 December. The presidential candidates Vitaly Rymashevsky and Nikolai Statkevich in his television appearances have urged people to come on the 24th October, for which he received a warning from the prosecutor's office.

Some of the other candidates to refrain from such action, and the 24th is not supported.

Vitali, Anna, how would you describe what happened in Minsk on the evening of the 24th in two aspects: it shows the number of rehearsal and script and rehearsal showed that the government's actions in response?

Tsigankov: If we continue in this theatrical terms, we may say so — the rehearsal showed that the performance is still not ready. The play still need to prepare and cook, and another thing — there was at that time. Frankly, after the two presidential candidates — Vitaly Rymashevsky and Nikolai Statkevich — in his television appearances have urged people to come to October Square, it seemed to me that there will come a little more than people. So far, however, we can not say that there were some new participants of mass actions, as came mainly known political activists and members of groups supporting the candidates.

I can also say that the most radical candidates — the same Rymashevski and iPad for — feel that it is necessary to aggravate the situation, that the government is not going to for whatever reason, to go to the forced termination of the action, so this celebration of democracy has turned the streets of the capital.

And another factor. The action once again showed that between the opposition candidates there is no general approach is not only about strategy, but about tactics. One simply has not acceded to the idea of this action, as Sannikov and Mikhalevich, someone like Nekljaev, shall we say was involved in it, I would say, "through force," as if by force. Was in the square, but on to the Central Election Commission has not gone. So, if this is a rehearsal, the actors played different roles and each in its own way.

Sous: The number of participants rehearsal Plaza testified that the true area is not believable. Even if we accept as truth the highest figures, called Paul Seviarynets 2-3 thousand people, and to increase them twice, three times, still it turns out that it is not size, not the mass of people who can change the power. Tossing more journalists, police and security forces in plain clothes get smaller. I remember the arguments of some presidential candidates that do not need a single candidate, even if different candidates bring their supporters to the square, where all will be resolved. As shown rehearsal, even to bring people to the area there is no unity.

For example, the site of the Charter, an online resource Sannikov in the evening on November 24 did not report anything about the area, and the members of his picket at the GUM department store refused to join the demonstrators. Michalevic that passed through the area, refused to join in on the action. If it was a rehearsal, then they should at least be made some errors.

Candidates were able to live in the area to call, the number of people who responded was small. That way before, and witnessed the results of sociological research NISPED — 11% are willing to protest.

As for the government's actions, the liberalization of the mind. Nobody adtsyasnyali, people were walking along the main avenue of Minsk with a white-red-white flags. You can not be afraid, it seems. But this is not a demonstration of the liberalization of the Belarusians, but rather for the West to recognize the election, I think.

But Belarusians remember well the repression for 16 years, remembers that after the elections, nearly everyone who testified against earlier or later was punished prison, dismissal, exclusion or something else. The fear that stuck in people is not easy to eradicate multiple shares without overclocking. No one doubts that the plainclothes special forces, as soon as the order will raise the baton. And everybody understands that the current government is always ready to give such an order to stay in power.

Lukashuk: As the results of the action on November 24 will affect the further course of the campaign: Will the canceled check some of the candidates, whether the authorities will act more harshly regarding the election campaign or policy will be more gentle?

Tsigankov: It seems that the authorities are trying to withstand a scenario of liberalization — in principle, does not make sense to say A and B. Why not say it was registered 10 candidates, then to shoot one of them. If they will remove someone, especially someone very stubborn and radical, it immediately goes the rumor that the authorities are afraid of something. And the candidate himself uses it to your advantage and get a pretty big bonus in this way for his future political career.

Someone shoot makes sense if the candidate is indeed a real electoral threat to the nomenclature or power. That is, if the question bluntly — or we will shoot him or he will win the elections. It seems that as long as a candidate is not visible.

Lukashuk: Since the beginning of this week, an hour in the morning and an hour in the evening Belarusians every five years of living in freedom of speech. State radio and television broadcast live on TV air presidential candidates. Vitaly, you listened carefully to morning radio broadcasts contenders for the top job. What are the main points in the one you have chosen for yourself?

Tsigankov:
I support the fact that in this case the main thing is not what you say but how you say. If a potential participant in the morning going to work, something to cook, to clean, then surely he can not keep track of the logic of long maxims. And in that sense, I think, is the undisputed leader Nyaklyayeu. He has by virtue of his profession and biographies advance had the advantage of the experience of public speaking, and he used it. I saw one comment on the Internet — "Look Neklyaeva — both went to the theater." Indeed, his speech Nekljaev read as a poem, as a fairy tale — which by the way, not like some politicized visitors online forums. But thinking about that. as speech Neklyaeva influenced ordinary voter, I remembered how once talked about Lukashenko — "oh, I d
o not understand what he says, but that is all talk."

In the second place, on the basis of these criteria, I would put Vitaly Rymashevsky, who has shown himself as a brilliant and emotional speaker. I think his radio and television appearances he made an absolute first step in a number of Belarusian politicians.

And also quite positive we can estimate the performance of Yaroslav Romanchuk, who, however, in my opinion, too vigorously stressed that he was not a radical, not a revolutionary, for a dialogue between society and the authorities. In other words, he seemed to convince people. So unconditional failure, in my opinion, can be called speech Ales Mikhalevich and Victor Tereshchenko.

Lukashuk: Vitaly watched ZS candidates, Anna watched them on television. Anna, what impression on you TV air — whose seemed the most striking, memorable, what the speakers were like, what's the — different from each other?

Sous: Each of the performances certainly made an impression, though the fact that all these people were actually the first time have the opportunity to appear on BT and not only in the context of propaganda programs, but as a live feed from the right bestsenzurnaga performance. At the time when this transfer is recorded, we have not seen televystupav Neklyaeva, Romanchuk and Tereshchenko Lukshenki, (the latter as it looks, will not act).

The most dramatic and acute seemed a speech Andrei Sannikov. Many candidates criticized the government, but if the iPad for never gave the name Lukashenko, you know who (a happy childhood with the son of one person, we see only one candidate, the director of the farm), then Sannikov was very specific and hard and well-aimed epithets — small Fuhrer , the usurper, the dictator, to drive out foreign pig from the garden. Higher authorities accused of murdering missing in rudeness, embezzlement of public money well, ski resorts, for the maintenance of Bakiyev. According Sannikvva, the opposition are those who live in Drazdy

It seemed to me, in the TV air candidates clearly witnessed what each of them goes to the polls. Rymashevski most of his dynamic, emotional, friendly performances dedicated to promoting their Belarusian Christian Democracy party, showing her picture, and gave telephone numbers and addresses on the Internet, I've always said "we." Here at Michalevic was dominant, "I", and his speech was more like a no election speech and lecture the young, ambitious teachers to students. Statkevich in vivid, emotional speech immediately revealed for what it is — do not become president, and that the elections in Belarus were to call people to the area that he, along with Vitaly Rymasheskim did. Gregory Kastusyou also demonstrated a Party of the Belarusian Popular Front under white-red-white flag, which he was very proud, he only spoke entirely in Belarusian, and had the impression that he speaks to supporters of the Party of the Belarusian Popular Front, as were a large number of unpopular things that always used Belarusian propaganda against the BPF. Kastusyou promised lustration, the trial of the KGB in Moscow criticized supporters of the script and so on. By the way, the other candidates to reach out to all kinds of people, deliberately crossed into Russian (Sannikov fully performed in Russian, iPad for most of the performances, Rymashevski a few minutes switched to Russian, speaking of the Belarusian language.) The slogan "Long live Belarus!" Separated only Rymashevski and Kastusyou.
Dmitry Uss demonstrated just what was clear from the outset that it ridiculous, the man in this election campaign.

As for the common things in the speeches of candidates, in fact, each promised to abolish the contract system, almost every urged people not to vote early, many promised, even saying he did not want to promise to return the benefits to improve the health care system — by and large the standard set of promises to elections.

Lukashuk: Yuri, how would you rate the performances of the candidates? Which one do you think is most able to influence voters?

Drakakhrust: I was impressed by three candidates. The first — certainly Statkevich. His luck — the right tone, not the roar of the inviting, not flirting, it sounded like a candid conversation with a good friend. And while he spoke quite radical, purely political things, but somehow in the human, everyday context. The fact that he did not set out a detailed program of action on items — so it may well. Particularly important program and Statkevich seems to be well on the load image "vzapravdashny Colonel." He is one of the candidates, who in his speech went beyond the boxes particular game — he did not pretend that there are elections in Belarus as elections.

The second I said Yaroslav Romanchuk radio address. That's who the program since the program — on items. Although the simplicity of it sounded more like policy statement of the Prime Minister, such Belarusian "500 days".

Well Nekljaev as nails hammer, his speech was sustained in the best tradition of political krasamovya. He said to himself in the third person, like Lukashenko, by the way.

Lukashuk: Even before the registration of candidates, many, including you, Yuri, said that the plan of the authorities — to register as many candidates, so to speak, to drown the less powerful of the weak. They say that many of the candidates' will cause confusion among the people and even fatigue milgatsennya the crowd and rush to vote for a single, which this farce is not involved and towering over all its competitors. After the 10 candidates were registered, and Alexander Lukashenko refused to use his radio speeches, this scenario seems very plausible. But hardly was correct calculation of the writers, whether Belarusians quickly overeat motley freedom of speech, whether or lost among the ten candidates? Vitali.

Tsigankov: It is difficult to perakarmits hungry, he can not get enough. Something alternate official view people can hear the Belarusian TV only once every six months, and so they are very eager to listen to what the candidates say. For me these days quite often call relatives, friends, and share their impressions of the candidates speeches. It is clear that these people are not indifferent to politics in general, but in the normal state, this curiosity is in suspended animation. They do not subscribe to the opposition press, do not visit the sites, but these days every day listening to the candidates. In my opinion, it is quite revealing. With that, it is interesting that different people like a completely different performances.

There are, of course, is the group of the population which is a priori for Lukashenko, and there is this belief beyond the rational. They are unlikely to listen to these performances or listen only to find some flaws in the opposition candidates and argue with them.

Sous: I would say that for the first 9 days of freedom of speech is not performed naeshsya. The rest of the ether, and before and after care is devoted to one candidate. I have this week leading to "Radio Liberty", and these days to our telephone answering machine receives a lot of calls from listeners — have such thoughts — the opposition saw on the screen was normal people, educated, from good families, a little worried, but they say smart things, such opposition should be respected. People want to hear the answers to the questions that concern them from other people. And they got the opportunity. And another idea that sounds in dozens of calls — a call — the candidates, call voters to vote early, do not let steal your voice. People understand that the candidates have received the podium for a short time and they should as much as possible to use it productively

Drakakhrust: I do not exclu
de that the presidential strategists in their calculations and could miscalculate. First, there is no effect — Who in the woods, who for firewood, positive programs of the candidates are very similar, in fact during the week listeners and viewers to various candidates talk about the same necessary changes.

Second, many candidates are moving away from the traditional opposition rallying standard, by the way, seems to shy away from all the self-determination itself as the opposition. Unfortunately or fortunately, but the company lacks a clear geopolitical dimension as a result of the candidates, at least some talk about things that are close voter, even supporters of Lukashenka.

Third, the performances are designed in a variety of genres, in an emotional sense, there adnastaynastsi. Almost everyone in the heart of someone so get. People can and will be difficult to make a choice, voice rastsyarushatstsa, it was clear to the start of the campaign, but Lukashenko TV air can select a certain number of votes.

Lukashuk: With us in the studio — our colleague from the Russian service of our radio Andrei Shary.

Andrew, first — on its own way a sensational event that never took place. Rather, the sensation was that it did not happen. This week in Minsk, the regular routine joint meeting of the two foreign ministries. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met only with his Belarusian counterpart Sergei Martynov, and went back to Moscow, and without seeing President Alexander Lukashenko. The usual practice was impaired. "Kommersant" newspaper expressed the theory that a meeting with the Moscow guest refused Belarusian president in a state of dizziness from its European success. However, the RIA-Novosti news agency, citing an anonymous Kremlin source explained that the meeting with Lavrov rebuked President Lukashenko Russia. Then Interfax extended comment as an anonymous source from the midst of the President of Belarus, according to which there is a ban on meeting Russian ministers and governors with the leadership of Belarus.
What explanation seems more plausible to you? And that generally means this move?

Balls: We must not be content with the official statements and interpretations of what is happening. And in Minsk and Moscow, we are dealing with research or journalists or anonymous sources from the Presidential Administration, according to which kind of put a moratorium on Russian officials to communicate with the Belarusian president, or even with the Russian trade unions. It seems to me, a view shared by many Russian political scientists, on the eve of elections, Moscow has a kind of pause. The position of President Medvedev to President Lukashenko was raised. It is clear that out of the tube its candidate for the election Moscow does not grow and grow, apparently, is not going to. In these circumstances, the Belarusian people will make their choice sincere led by Alexander Lukashenko, and Moscow will then have to deal with, or freedom-or Lukashenko Lukashenko, who admits his mistakes and will build relations with Moscow on the terms that were dictated to him.

Lukashuk: A couple of weeks ago in Minsk visited the foreign ministers of Poland and Germany, and they met with Alexander Lukashenko. For some observers the impression that in these elections in Belarus, Russia and Europe have switched roles: Moscow puts pressure on Lukashenko, the EU behind the scenes support. Is this true in your opinion?

Drakakhrust: In a sense, yes. Already alluded to the fact that the reaction of Europe and the West in the presidential elections in Belarus will not be as strong as it was after the 2006 elections. Polish and German ministers have called number — three billion euros, for which Europe is ready to buy Belarusian democratic elections. Although I'm not quite sure what it is a zero sum game. Europe puts conditions for democratic elections, and they are, by the way, partially implemented.

Balls:
I do not think someone swapped. Both the West and Russia understand that after the election will have to deal with Alexander Lukashenko. And Brussels and Moscow have their purpose in Belarus. You can talk about the naivety of Western politicians, but the calculation is made on the possibility of reform of the country's political system, bringing it in line with some ideas of decency.

Moscow has other goals, the genesis of the Russian regime is quite different, it is much more similar to the internal construction of Belarus than the internal construction of the democratic countries. Moscow tried different scenarios with neighboring countries, as it was in the Ukraine in 2004. This option is not passed. This is one of the reasons why now is not Moscow insists that someone Lukashenko replaced. According to the Kremlin's version of the more successful relationship with the Georgian president — a complete lack of communication. But with Belarus can not do so because there is no through Georgia transit of oil and gas and, in any case, Belarus — is not Georgia. Therefore, the tactic here is slightly different.

Lukashuk: The day before the visit of the Minister of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko publicly Lavrov refused to sign documents on the Belarusian-Russian military group, he said that he would sign them only during the session of the Supreme State Council of the Union, that is, during a meeting with the Russian president. This is similar to last year's situation, when Lukashenko in the midst of war beat breast decision-making in the framework of the CSTO. In your opinion, how painful for Moscow to take such steps official Minsk?

Balls: I believe that they are sick. Any president does not like it when he disagree. Medvedev said in his video blog said everything I wanted to say about Lukashenko. Medvedev — a weak president, Lukashenko knows it, his reaction is also calculated on what Medvedev has real powers. Now Lukashenko does not want to sign. But a month later he wins the election, and it turns out that the Belarusian and Russian people there is an infinite potential of friendship, and that friendship is possible for something to give. And they will sit down and agree.

Lukashuk: This week, Medvedev sent a question on twitter from Belarus — as it relates to the Belarusian elections and the Belarusian president. He said that the election is with great respect, and about Lukashenko said about him already spoken. And he gave a link to a very critical video message, which you, Andrew, have said. Do you think that it is now possible reconciliation between Medvedev and Lukashenko?

Balls: In politics, everything is possible. Can be reconciled. And maybe — and the continuation of the current cold snap. Nobody is going to die. The question is to what extent the "freezing" of relations between the two countries, taking into account, inter alia, the role of transit and Belarus.

Lukashuk: Yuri, in your opinion — that the conflict with the Kremlin Minsk — can it affect the Belarusian nomenklatura at the Belarusian security forces, the last in a situation Square will behave in the same way as the security forces have behaved relatively protesters on Independence in 2004?

Drakakhrust:
I believe the answer to your question is — compared with the effect in Belarus "godfathers", he certainly is, but not decisive. All the same, 20 years old Belarusian nomenclature largely got rid of the habit of taking the salu
te on any wish of Moscow. On the other hand, Moscow's wishes, and yet are not as specific and unambiguous — you can remember and conciliatory press conference the head of the Kremlin administration, Sergei Naryshkin, and the recent statement by the Russian Ambassador to Belarus Alexander Surikov that Lukashenko would win the election with a convincing result. The ambiguity of Moscow's position strengthened by the fact that the Kremlin does not declare that it supports any candidate in Belarus.

So that the "signal" is not so strong, "radar" is not too attuned to this "signal".

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