External debt of the U.S. government puts at a crossroads. The protracted economic crisis could lead to the collapse of the country or the beginning of World War III. In the left hand side does not get anyone. Are there ways out of this situation?
Active U.S. "aid" to other states
The struggle of the United States of America against global terrorism, which began in the autumn of 2001 in Afghanistan and then in Iraq, legalized the right of the strongest military units not only interfere in the internal affairs of countries, and to overthrow the unwanted government, the placing on its head, entire regions.
The last stage — the fight NATO with the Gaddafi regime in Libya, was so not a lot due to it is a kind of a smile even from the organizers of the attack. And the prime minister of Italy said the young shoots of his own party, the uprising in Libya was not popular. According to Silvio Berlusconi, he beheld himself during his stay in Libya that Gaddafi was loved by his people.
Alarming is the fact that by removing Gaddafi, pro-American opposition in place of the military governor of Tripoli, a man who, as is well understood, is one of the managers of the Islamic branch of "Al-Qaeda" in Libya, Abdelhakim Belhaj. Many of his colleagues are also in the terrorist list of the United Nations and the European Union.
Let us remember what ended U.S. involvement in the situation in Afghanistan and Iraq, both countries are mired in civilian war, and the actual control of their produce terrorist groups, not government officials. U.S. intervention has brought anarchy in countries such as Somalia, Guinea, Haiti, Kyrgyzstan, and several other small states. During the past spring and summer came the addition to this series of Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, probably the same thing will happen in Syria and Iran.
Such interference in the internal affairs of independent states impossible to explain in the export of democracy and the protection of the local population. Massacres, which resulted in the overthrow of the municipal institutions, can not be justified by anything. Much faster intervention is associated with the destruction of the blocks and individual countries, who were suspected of anti-American sentiment and support rivals on the world stage.
You can bring an unlimited number of examples of that sympathy for the Soviet Union and anti-Americanism led not to a democratic transition with the U.S., and the dictatorship of General Franco (Brazil, 1964), General Suharto (Indonesia, 1965), General Pinochet, Chile (1973) and other.
Despite the fact that the Russian Union has no such measures are used to other competing political regimes. A "fight against international terrorism" is a comfortable excuse for the U.S. to have got into other people's business. Here only the results achieved negotiable, instead of sympathy for the United States, in 9 cases out of 11, such a policy leads to anti-American sentiments in the "dealt bountifully" countries. These attitudes can lead to more active intervention Yankees, and the result of this will be a big spiral samoraskruchivayuscheysya war, and it is unlikely anyone will stay away. If only the U.S. will not fall apart without the help of others even earlier.
Prerequisites to the collapse of the U.S.
Back in 1981, Joel Garreau argued that the differences between the individual parts of North America are so significant that the United States and Canada — not two countries, and nine. He's just agree. While our homeland allows individual regions autonomous republics, many of them may invalidate on its territory certain federal laws and make their own laws contrary to the constitution. And China calls the outer regions of its "autonomous regions" and also gives them a certain freedom. The U.S. government is practicing monotonous attitude toward all. But the United States of America — an association of 50 states, which can break down into individual countries because it did Russian Alliance.
Maybe this is a prerequisite to temper himself Yankees. In North America, historically flocked refugees from Europe. The most active and angry — politicians, whose party was defeated, offenders fleeing from justice, ordinary artisans and farmers who want to get away from the tyranny of society and the monotony of everyday life, as well as the aristocrats who are tired of public conventions and limitations. Progenitors of the South American nation were people skittish, adventurous, impatient for power, but unaccustomed to deception and violence, maybe, generous and religious, but at the same time, the hypocrites and bigots.
A prerequisite for the collapse of the country may become a growing political divide in the middle of the inhabitants. Part of the Yankees are not happy with the incumbent regime and protest against government interference in the property rights of others willing to support close to the socialist legislation of this kind, as the gun law, the law on hate speech, immigration law. These people are ready to empower government to government Police received more rights and undermined the freedom of the individual for the sake of even more, in their opinion, for the good of the country.
Likely just split the country along the lines of race. Representatives of various ethnic groups coexist harder, which confirms the rampant crime in the U.S. campuses. Latina in the south-east of the country tend more to their Hispanic brothers abroad than in their own country. South American Indians, naterpevshis from the federal government, have their reasons for withdrawal from the country. Separatist movements are gaining momentum across the country.
Hard to say exactly how it will look political map of North America after the alleged split, only one thing is clear. Several generations have to go through the violence and social upheaval until there permanent society.
The main reason that the U.S. will split — the state of the U.S. economy
Their movement to the economic crisis the United States began in 1981, when he finished the construction of "pure capitalism" For the past 30 years, they deindustrializovali country to such an extent that they have lost a few 10 s of thousands of companies and have significantly reduced the standard of living of ordinary Yankees. Now that the problem of public debt as acute, the government will have to do re-industrialization, a process which inevitably impending fall in living standards by 20-30%. If you do not, the U.S. will not be able to make a cheap labor force konkurentnst Asia. Also appalling school system has led to the fact that the advantage in qualifying U.S. workers have long been lost. And without the restoration industry America never get porazdavat debts, give work to the population and to remain one of the world leaders. Obama drew off the board just retribution, means the cost of change will be even higher.
The value of America's public debt is so high that only solve the problem of reducing costs is unrealistic. If you do not increase the debt and budget cuts will have to cut even more high-tech creation, infrastructural development. Worth the wait as well and falling consumer demand of the majority of the population. In other words, the effect will be approximately the same as in Greece: the decline of the economy, industrial recession, rising unemployment, a decrease in real spending inhabitants, the voltage will rise in the socio-political sphere.
Apart from the above-mentioned problems, can be increased problem of the crisis of capitalism. All past crises have only delayed the collapse of the former model. In 1991, the penetration of capitalism bailed out just buck on the area of
the former USSR, at the moment there is no such USSR. Also U.S. expects difficulties in China and throughout Asia as a whole. Re-industrialization of America amounts to a narrowing of markets and protectionism for the West Asian countries. Verbally re-industrialization process began in September 2009.
Another impending problem — cutting pensions in the U.S. and the EU. At the moment, retirement is a generation which came on a sharp increase in the birth rate. Most of the democratic load can destroy most of the advanced countries. A unpopular political decisions in this regard, the government will have to take will cause a protest from the people, the crisis of democracy and the real war between pensioners and young people.
Another discrepancy is the lack of a new technology market. At the time, the financiers strangled in its infancy technological revolution that could come to fruition first of this century. Instead of the real development of the relocation of production went to China, where instead of the latest boats worked countless jobs. So the U.S. itself nourished unsafe rival in China. And thousands of new technologies associated with the development of the ocean and space, new forms of energy are not born.
President Obama has tried to fight the crisis, only worsening the situation. As soon assist banks collapsing system and public pensions. Take on her again inundated with banks and health care. Means banks will pump — municipal debt grows even more. So this crisis is not limited to a few years.
Many financial experts have long were that the financial health of the United States — a bubble. In fact, America's GDP in the current time approximately equal GDP initially 1980s. Initially, America's economy was focused not on the development of science and technology base and the highest rates of economic growth, and to accelerate the process of redistribution. This economy — the economy crisis. Endlessly exploited all made by past generations, but do not actually create anything of its own. At this point comes the agony of this system.
The U.S. has only two perspectives — to establish the dictatorship of the supporters of the STR or fall apart. If such a dictatorship will not be able to overcome the resistance of the financiers, the United States will fall down into the abyss of economic and social chaos, a new dark age. Very far gone crisis processes.
Perhaps the U.S. would go to war to find a suitable opponent, the digestion of which accelerate the transition to a new technological order. Here are just a small country such as Afghanistan or Iraq is not enough. The enemy must be a booty: natural resources, vast terrain, undefeated ecosystem. West did so in its history. At first, it was the Incas and Aztecs, and later India, China, the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union. And nothing shows that at the moment the order has changed. If America is the same fall into chaos ahead of a war on the division of the world.
Most likely, it is necessary to wait for the coming of the bloody events.
Can I do without war?
Even during the second world war, was common perception that war is beneficial to the economy. Many believe that the U.S. led war specifically of depression, rather than spending the shortage.
The war really led to the growth of labor productivity, but a prerequisite to overcome depression, it was then when she opened the floodgates shortage. In wartime, the shortcomings did not disturb anyone. Economic growth has meant that the public debt rose to 120% of GDP. Produced at the time of the machine and infrastructure led the country to favorites productivity, by 1970 debt was only 40% of GDP.
Specifically war was to be the last resort when politicians have allowed the government to go into debt and provoke such makarom economy. But there are other methods, Keynes proposed to force the workers to dig ditches to pay them for it, thus increasing the purchasing power of Makar. And the demand itself will create new jobs and to increment the creation of products and services.
For example, the Chinese are building big houses and shopping centers, which are empty for lack of customers. But it managed to fill the wallets of workers, giving them the opportunity to waste. This approach does not need a terrible toll the war — death and destruction.
But there is a better method. Replaced in order to do unnecessary work, it is necessary to cope with unmet needs. Restore infrastructure, ennobling power grid, education, spend money on research. Such costs would assist not only improve purchasing power, and make a better life in the general population.
Specifically reallocation of military spending in the peaceful course will help to make more jobs, better infrastructure to make the parallel reduction of the public debt, as well as to balance the state budget by increasing the tax base and revenues.
The collapse of the global monetary system
The Western world has undermined the financial system with their own hands. Consciously and immediately did the U.S. government and its European allies. The aim was also unclear and insignificant — Libya's "revolution" was transferred to the rail "self-sufficiency".
Earlier, one of the existing instruments of international policy was blackmailing bank accounts. Sure grip bank balance was able to do at least some policy more accommodating. Such a policy is not practiced exclusively in banks of old Europe. It is simply to recognize as during the formation of a Euro place no matter what inconstancy should be avoided. In addition, the EU did not have to get involved in another war.
But the situation has changed dramatically May 6, 2011, when U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said that the frozen part of the country, "Gaddafi assets" (about 3 billion dollars) will be used for the benefit of the Libyan people. The German government has also decided to transfer part of the bank fund in the hands of Libyan rebels. So Makar, the Western countries simply appropriated funds and some of them were sent to the financing of the armed uprising in Libya.
Since the Western world has violated the basic principles of the monetary system — the integrity of capital and freedom of circulation. A political conclusion is this: the West has openly stated that by choice can not accept international pravosubektivnost all states.
It is difficult to talk about the independence of a united Europe. A Libyan company to raise tensions inside the European countries. In particular, it is difficult to explain such conduct its own people will be in France and England.
Until nedavneshnego day or the main features of the banking system of old Europe were stable, guarantee deposits and anonymity. Now the whole EU financial system is under threat. Withdrawal of U.S. and European banks have already begun. Relay judges and money center of the world can now fall back to China, but it has sufficient infrastructure and cash collateral.
Apparently the Western world is getting ready for the newest strategies associated with the denial of the principles of state sovereignty in the hope that a similar strategy will meet all the costs of its implementation.
It is not clear how it will react to our homeland. Understand only one thing, to withdraw funds from Europe and the U.S. will be problematic.
The reasons for this is the lack of a single currency, which will change the euro and dollar. Yuan is not yet ready for the role. China has not yet developed a mechanism to control the money rate is not determined by its ceiling as a universal currency unit. Administration of China has a low enough rate of the national currency, which allows you to keep exports measured at the highest level.
If the yuan still become a world currency unit, so China is waiting for massive financial gain, which does not even need its allies. But the main reason is that the levers of control over other pe
ople's assets, which at the moment are in the hands of others, will go to China.
Our homeland is no systematic work in this direction. Even the experts up to now consider the situation at the level of 2008. Perhaps Russia's position will be clear after the presidential elections in March 2012. Or Russia awaits a tough confrontation with the West, right up to the armed conflict, or the Russian Federation will no longer exist as the government in its real form.
Conscientious objection U.S. and its allies from the inviolability of capital and the free flow, which are the main principles of the banking system of the West, is a consequence of the change of strategic course. End of the free market — is a denial of freedom for national sovereignty and self-determination.
Changing the world monetary model — is a consequence of a modern geopolitical world model. At the moment, we can follow the End of History. In the past go of old category generated by the western civilization — democracy, human rights, popular sovereignty. Ahead — New Middle Ages.