Incorrect puzzles defense could harm defense planning
Candidate of Historical Sciences Vladimir Kozin convinced that the sea-based systems, planned within the framework of the "European Phased Adaptive Approach", will provide a "cover for a nuclear first strike by the states — members of NATO." The creator says: the more the U.S. will have interceptor missiles in comparison with Russian ICBMs, the more South American administration will be raring to inflict such strike. U.S. warns of goals related to "a global nuclear war," and the application of impunity "first strike" in the Russian Federation. U.S. to keep the same step from that, in his opinion, can only increase Russia's strategic nuclear forces. On what would have benefited the United States in the case of applying them disarming nuclear first strike against the Russian Federation?
Phantasmagoria disarming strike
According to professionals in the criteria of the Contract START-3 (from 2010) Russian nuclear deterrent capability has increased with the high decoys on intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). Even the deployment of the U.S. missile defense system in the one-sided format in accordance with the submitted plans, the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama would not have a practical impact on the ability of the Russian strategic nuclear retaliation to inflict unacceptable damage. As part of the treaty regime of START-3 and lowering levels of the U.S. and Russia START planning disarming strike got hopeless and even irrational temper, as a party under attack, there is a sufficient number of missiles and warheads for inflicting unacceptable retaliatory strike.
The irrationality of such kind of action is justified not only the Russian-American strategic balance, and impartiality of the geopolitical situation (the current configuration of the centers of world power, the presence of "nuclear triangle" of the U.S. — Our homeland — China). Geopolitical factor is not only not "balancing" colossal danger to the founder of a nuclear attack, but, on the contrary, increase it.
Imagine a magnificent script. Pentagon accompanies fortune: somehow magically it will "trick" the Russian Aerospace Defense (ASD), hit a massive nuclear strikes 650 of 700 operationally deployed carriers laid the Russian Federation under the START-3, and interceptors — to kill a huge part of surviving ICBM .
With all of this to get the results indicated the Pentagon would have to use at least operationally deployed all media allowed the U.S. Contract START-3, in other words 700 units from 1550 YABZ on them. This means that on the territory of Russia will explode nuclear devices the total power of more than 150 megatonnes — more than 12 thousand 300 "Hiroshimas." ("Hiroshima" in this case — the equivalent of the U.S. nuclear bomb that destroyed the Japanese city of Hiroshima in 1945). As shown by the calculations performed even in the middle of the 1980s, and confirmed the new environmental research work (already carried out in 2007-2009), the critical point beyond which irreversible tragic start the configuration of the biosphere and the climate ("nuclear threshold") is of the order of 100 Mt.
Even the limited use of the order of hundreds of YABZ cause depletion of the ozone layer and the smoke in the upper atmosphere over the years, which would entail disastrous consequences for the environment, agriculture and human health. There will be a sharp, only the strong and long cooling of the air caused by the release into the atmosphere of the set and the spread of dust clouds consisting of small particles of matter.
Nuclear blow to the Russian Federation will lead to an avalanche of disastrous consequences for other European countries, despite the fact that their country will not explode, no warhead. Subjected to radioactive contamination area by a distance of tyschami km. In other words, far beyond the locations of nuclear explosions. In the Eastern, Central, Western and Southern Europe will of infection sustainable land and water long-lived radioactive isotopes of strontium-90 and cesium-3. Will be destroyed on the environment, including the agricultural, the main components of the scope of the human habitat.
10 of millions of inhabitants of the western part of the continent Euro undergo radiation damage. They will receive a radiation dose of 150-200 rad, significantly impairs the function of the immune system and causing significant and long configuration in the body, the development of immunodeficiency in humans. In addition, people will be left without drinking water and food, in the criteria for limiting mental stress and degradation.
So Makarov, "successful" nuclear attack on the United States guaranteed the Russian Federation "achieve" the decommissioning of their own European NATO allies. In addition, having spent all of operationally deployed strategic delivery vehicles, and can be, having lost a considerable part stored in the arsenals of ICBMs, the United States could, at what time to be without sufficient effective nuclear deterrent and be subject to force action.
Geopolitical Consequences of War
Caught in a hopeless position languid caused by its own ally, the European countries — NATO members are unlikely to be inclined (and even less able) to participate in defending the interests of the United States on the world stage, including in respect of the opponent's head — a massive, China is gaining strength. In the case of US-Russian nuclear conflict over China will unfold, "seductive" abilities. It can, for example, resort to nuclear blackmail and negotiations from a position of strength to reach the United States fundamentally concessions on fundamental geopolitical and economic issues.
International environment for the U.S. will be much hostility. Would dramatically increase U.S. vulnerability to threats from "rogue states" and terrorist Islamist formations.
An attempt to deprive the Russian nuclear deterrent will inevitably lead to the devilish to the interests of the U.S. global geopolitical shocks. It was not only unprecedented in the history of international crime that turns Washington into a world pariah, and the impenetrable stupidity. In any case, it's — a sure way to lose the U.S. position in the world. Neuzh then do not get it in Washington? For at least some of the American administration, guided by the principles of common sense and self-interest of state, such a course of action — untainted madness, complete nonsense. Although municipal men defining the South American military and foreign policy are not without weaknesses (some — not foreign rusofobstvo), in the midst of their collective energy is not obsessed with suicide.
Where does the motivation for a nuclear first strike? The answer to this question, fundamentally for the construction of the "worst scenario", structured around VladimiraKozinym, he does not. Not bothering to search for evidence, he resorts to the "argument" is not accepted in the scientific discussion and evidence of the impotence of his argument: states dissenting Russian scientists "mouthpieces of NATO." Following this logic, one would most sovereign Kozina ranked as "agents of influence" of the Iranian ayatollahs on the grounds that he was opposed to the creation of the missile defense designed to intercept Iranian missiles.
THREAT Either BLUFF EUROPRO
What is the challenge of the project European missile defense system? This programm "open extension." As part of the budget and technical skill
s of its developers and customers will tend to be most effective, and this must be taken into account. But the project seems to have a tailwind and function — to increase the level of uncertainty for Russia in its military planning to go to Moscow to make significant unnecessary defense costs. Horror Russian elite is designed to inspire the creation of the myth-building unpunished nuclear disarming strike against Russia.
In this connection it is appropriate to recall the story of another South American principle of the project — program "Strategic Defense Initiative, SDI" declared by President Ronald Reagan, March 21, 1983. It also dealt with the impenetrable missile defense, layered missile defense system, the development potential of the "first strike", etc.
In the Russian Union did not give tribute to the values of speeches of American politicians and professionals, certifying that the IDF — first, "a sure way to exhaustion and undermine the Russian economy," a tricky trap to force him to go to the back-breaking costs. Indeed, the management of the Soviet Union managed to scare and "dissolve" into significant cost resources. The Soviet economy was bled dry silly arms race, which was one of the main causes of its collapse and disappearance from the world stage.
They themselves work in the U.S. SDI suspended by officially recognizing this program from "strategically and economically wasteful inappropriate." Maybe history is repeating itself. Do we not encounter with a remake of the bluff SDI, with specific information special? However, the technique of action has changed, become more sophisticated. Promotion of the European missile defense project is not accompanied by obvious dangers and clash of the instrument.
Alarmist sentiments in Russian society, fueled by faster nedogovorkami, hints, mnogosmyslennyh demarches. This, for example, the reluctance to predict quantitative restrictions and high-performance European missile defense system in accordance with the set puzzles (protection against missiles from the south), the failure to take the appropriate amount, and then confirm that its capacity will be aimed only at protecting against missile threats from the south. This links to the ability to deploy warships interceptor missiles in the Barents and North Seas (which is seen in Moscow as an act contrary to the officially stated goal of the project European missile defense — defense against missile threats coming from the south), etc.
By the way, if the U.S. really wanted to take Russian concerns and move forward in cooperation with Russia in the development of a pan-European missile defense system, they would have to promise not to deploy a European missile defense system of naming objects above water areas. But it seems more fundamental to Washington at this stage is to maintain a certain degree of tension in Russian-NATO relations, and at first the preservation of "uncertainty" that makes it difficult defense planning in Russia.
Not feeling that while the United States and, in particular, the NATO countries in the eurozone feverishly seek out money out of the debt crisis and have to cut back on their own military utilities that attempt to "shake" Russia (with her until the federal budget deficit-free) for more stupid costs . These criteria before the Russian military and political control is a trivial task to separate what is for Russia in the US-NATO missile defense project, the real challenge — from the bluff and chimeras specifically injected into the information space, and not to yield misleading alarmist rhetoric.
Lopsided deployment of U.S. missile defense sites in Europe really does great harm. That leads to increased tension between Russia and the United States, undermining strategic stability and prevent joint efforts to counter common threats, including the spread of nuclear missile weapons. Specifically, this should cause the greatest fear, not a horror story "reset" Russian nuclear deterrent, which distracts from the real problems of security solutions.
Due to the lopsided deployment of U.S. military facilities near the borders of the Russian Federation in Moscow soon took a number of precautions, including military-technical nature. Immediately at the highest level once again proved the readiness of Russian control in dialogue with the U.S. and NATO at the mutual account of the legitimate interests of all parties in order to find solutions to the basic dilemma of the creation of the European missile defense system.
Development of the plot EuroPRO showed that the establishment of partnerships in this area asks a high level of mutual trust, more determined to overcome stereotypes and phobias, inherited from the period of the war cool, and most importantly — sequential transformation of the state of mutual nuclear deterrence and its role in security policies.
The fundamental task in this way — an adequate response to lzheugrozy, including on a bluff, "a global nuclear war" with impunity "first strike", provoking a ruinous arms race. Superfluous arms RF not needed. They divert money and material resources from the pressing needs of the defense and civilian sectors of the economy will weaken the competitiveness of our country and its impact on world politics. To save the future modernization of the country, it is necessary to move towards international arms control. Specifically, such an approach corresponds to the interests of the Russian state.