West on Libya: Is the power likely scenario?

Western and significant part of the global media, including Russian, conduct an information war against Gaddafi. On its own power it can get ahead of the avalanche heresy of "humanitarian disaster" in the IEA in 1999.

But will it follow the blows of power over information operation NATO or some U.S. forces? The U.S. has already pulled in Libya sufficiently strong squadron of the Navy. There is already a detachment of the U.S. Navy, consisting of amphibious assault ship, helicopter landing ship dock and destroyer. Focuses detachment of the 6th Fleet led by the nuclear aircraft carrier "Enterprise".

In addition, there are ships and other countries — Britain, Germany, the ships sent to Libya as France, Italy, Canada. But France and Italy have refused to talk about the military operation, the Security Council would not support such measures, because Russia and China will not give permission.

However, the U.S. can "spit" on the outlook of the global society. The main problem is that the United States has not yet completed operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. They do not have the strength to carry out a ground operation, even at partial operation — on the oppression of the Air Force and Air Defense Libya — not a lot of strength. On the "Enterprise" of around 70 aircraft, 48 of them fighters "Super Hornet", this obviously is not a lot to kill Libyan air defense and air force.

To carry out the operation to create a "no-fly zone", you need to pull another 3-4 aircraft carrier strike groups-. In other words, at the time Gaddafi still there.

The main tool in this "performance" — that is, information. Gaddafi will of breaking open, that he himself is gone, then do not need them any missiles or aircraft, no fuel waste, solid economy.

What is Gaddafi

The armed forces consist of approximately 80 thousand people, but part of the personnel joined the rebellious, another part fled their homes and waiting for the end of the play. Increasingly capable of and loyal to Gaddafi — a 5 "teams of the Jamahiriya," brigade "revolutionary guards", a special 32th security brigade, 6 battalions "commandos". Recruited most of these fellow countrymen and the Libyan leader. There are so-called. Islamic Pan African Legion of between 7 and 15 thousand. This mercenaries recruited in Chad, Niger, Mali, Sudan, is there and Arabs from Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia, and even people from Pakistan. All these units are trained by foreign military spices, including immigrants from Eastern Europe.

Armament: about 1,000 tanks, the most modern — the T-90 and T-72, the other T-62, T-55 (deposited more about 1000 units), with approximately 2,000 armored vehicles, 1,500 artillery pieces and mortars, more than 800 MLRS, about 6,000 anti-tank systems, there is a tactical ballistic missile systems such as "Scud" and "Moon" — from 50 — to 120 complexes. More than 800 air defense missile systems and complexes FOR — "Arrows", the French "Crotal", "Shilka", TAL-2, C-60.

The problem is that a significant part in the preservation, and probably can not be repaired (because of improper storage). But even the remaining force the U.S. is thinking.

Air Force and Air Defense

Although the Libyan Air Force total to 400 units of aircraft, virtually the entire park — an old model, a significant part of it is intact, the situation worsens low training of personnel.

Defense thick enough, though armament old, another Russian — C-75, C-125, 2Q12 "Cube", S-200 (8 divisions). Capable of causing serious problems of NATO air.

Gaddafi somewhat lucky, he concluded with a number of Russian military contracts — booked 3 boat project 12418 "Lightning" with missiles "Uran-E" was going to buy two NNS. For the Army was going to purchase a batch of T-90SA and modernize the T-72. For the Air Force wanted to buy Yak-130 and were thinking about buying the party of Su-35 was likely to purchase batch of helicopters, transport and drums. Gaddafi wanted to buy in Russia air defense system "Buk-M1-2E", "Tor-M2E" and even C-300PMU-2. These purchases would be seriously strengthened the Libyan armed forces, taking into account the great arms of old times in store. Our homeland has lost huge amounts of money and arms market.

Let's result — At the current time, the U.S. can not even hold operation to eliminate the Libyan air force and air defense, they need to throw quite significant force for such operations. United States and its allies can at the present time to help "rebels" tool, communication systems, using them to carry out acts of sabotage.

U.S. squadron in Libya — this is still a means of psychological pressure, that Gaddafi gave up, lost power.

If the United States will go to the end and concentrate sufficient forces for the successful invasion, then on the views of the vice-president of the Academy of Geopolitical problems Sivkova K., "… Gaddafi is best to leave Tripoli and go with his men out into the wilderness to regroup and wait until people start to speak out against the U.S. occupation. This will happen quite quickly — within a few months. Later, Gaddafi may join them and head back to Libya. "

That there is, Gaddafi's chances if it will withstand the psychological pressure is.

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